By my analysis, as of today, there’s a 3-5% chance of enough “elite” teams sitting at 10-2 or better ending up ranked ahead of Notre Dame to keep them out. This includes unlikely scenarios where a three loss team makes it in and wins a conference championship (for example a 9-3 Georgia losing to GT but beating Alabama in the rematch while edging out a pair of other 6-2 sec teams via tie-breakers)
A lot of those scenarios will be ruled out next week.
It’s FAR more likely they get left out as a result of stumbling at Pitt, (or Navy, Stanford or heaven forbid BC).