UHND.com - Notre Dame Football, Basketball, & Recruiting

I had assumed it reflected power retroactively, but it's more a guestimate of how teams will do based on a variety of factors. What's interesting is that ND has been high on the FPI all year, but maybe the close losses to high ranked opponents up front didn't hurt for this ranking. I can see the model working after there's a data set based on performance, but maybe it is more guess work out of the gate. What might be most interesting about this early on is that it is a gauge of how a team should do, so if it rates a team high early, and they drop or barely win low scoring games, seems like they should drop in the FPI.

From Copilot ...

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) is a predictive rating system that measures team strength and forecasts game outcomes based on various factors, including team performance, opponent strength, and historical data.
Overview of FPI . The Football Power Index (FPI) is designed to be the best predictor of a team's performance for the remainder of the season. It represents how many points above or below average a team is expected to perform against an average opponent on a neutral field. The FPI is updated daily and is based on simulations of the remaining season, taking into account results to date and the remaining schedule.
ESPN

Key Components of FPI
Team Strength: FPI ratings are derived from a combination of offensive, defensive, and special teams performance, measured through Expected Points Added (EPA). This allows for a comprehensive assessment of a team's overall strength.

Simulations: Each team's season is simulated thousands of times (typically 10,000) to produce projections for various outcomes, such as winning their division, conference, or even the CFP.

Factors Considered:
Rest and Travel: The model accounts for extra days of rest and the impact of long travel distances on team performance.

Historical Data: FPI relies on historical performance data, including the number of returning starters, past team performance, and recruiting rankings, especially during the preseason.

Adjustments Over Time: As the season progresses, the influence of preseason data diminishes, but it never completely disappears. This ensures that FPI remains responsive to current team performance while still considering historical context.

Game Predictions: FPI is used to predict the outcomes of individual games, providing insights into which team is favored to win based on their ratings and the context of the matchup.

Season Projections: It helps in forecasting a team's chances of achieving specific milestones, such as bowl eligibility or playoff appearances, based on their performance and remaining schedule.

In summary, ESPN's FPI is a sophisticated tool that combines various metrics and simulations to provide a detailed analysis of team strength and performance predictions in football. It is widely used for both college and NFL games, making it a valuable resource for fans and analysts alike.