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Nominally they are equal to the _inverse_ (-ed I initially made a double-negative error) odds of Miami, BYU, or Alabama moving ahead of us with no one falling behind us.

Those teams pass us if:
-BYU beats TT in the rematch by a close margin.
-Miami embarrasses Pitt or wins by as much as we did while we beat Stanford by less than they did.
-Alabama beats Auburn==they are in the sec championship; Win or lose close and they pass us

And if all three happen then we go to the pop tarts bowl….

(Yes, Miami will pass us if they beat Pitt big—with recency bias they’ll be credited with a “better” performance against common opponents which, when added to head-to-head will be enough to overcome “worse losses”)


Note: The odds are in the noise, but there are some edge cases like LSU upsets OK, Texas beats A&M and GT beats Georgia or BYU loses to UCF or ACC chaos puts Miami in the ACC championship.