I said earlier guaranteed teams in (although I'm removing Alabama here):
B1G
Ohio State
Indiana
Oregon
SEC
Texas A&M
Georgia
Mississippi
Oklahoma
ACC
Champion only
Big 12
Texas Tech
Group of 5
Best
That's 10 teams, no question. However, the potential scenarios we have now include Alabama in the SEC championship game if they beat Auburn (very likely) and winning the SEC; Texas Tech getting upset in the Big 12 championship game, and Michigan beating Ohio State and then winning the B1G championship game.
That's 13 teams ahead of ND when we can only afford 11, and this doesn't even count Texas if they beat A&M tonight. We can't afford anything goofy to happen.
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