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Let's look at what is a lock thus far:

1. Alabama is in, even with a loss
2.BYU wins and ND is out

Now that that's out of the way, let's look at the remaining likely scenarios:

1. Alabama wins the CCG: 9. Alabama 10. ND (the Head to Head doesn't matter most, or BYU, despite the loss, stays at 11 and provides a buffer against 12th ranked Miami)
2.Alabama wins the CCG: 9. Alabama 10 Miami (the Head to Head matters most and BYU falls behind Miami, thus no buffer)
3.Alabama loses the CCG: 9. ND 10.Alabama (All's well that ends well)

It's hard to find any other plausible scenarios.ND is far from a lock. Pray for Alabama and BYU to lose.