Alabama was - 310 and Miami was +186. At -3500, ND is perceived as a virtual lock. Last night it was +710 to not make it. Vegas doesn't intend on giving out free money and having ND a YES at -3500, up from -1200 means that no one was betting on the no, or it would have dropped. The plus money was probably above +1000, so your theory sucks.
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