What is this, 2008?
If you haven't stuffed the mattresses yet, you had better start soon.
by feds, i.e. the rate neither boost nor slow economy growth. You don't have to believe me. Just go to read a series of statements from feds starting from Jan. of 2019. The neutral interest rate is not a constant depending on many economical and financial variables, finding it is a discovery process. But, by lowering the rate now to neutral rate, I can say Feds indirectly admit its rate increase in first 2 years of Trump presidency is too fast and too much.
The real issue is, as I mentioned before, Fed held 7 years of near-zero rates in Obama presidency. That's way too long and they missed opportunities to raise rates. This 7 years of near-zero rates created wealth for a few ( via inflated stocks) and hurt small potatoes who depend on saving and pension plans, therefore widened the wealth gap.
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2.5% sounds pretty neutral to me, if not accommodative.
The dual mandate is the law made by congress. Whether or not you agree with the law is another thing. For instance, I don't agree they should target unemployment. But It's economics 101 in reality that Feds don't target GDP to adjust rate. Of course GDP, and many economic metrics as references would be considered by Feds in making their policies.
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As long as the world buys our debt we are fine. When they don’t we are screwed. But that would mean there is a better alternative to the US. I don’t see that on the horizon unless you do.
You cannot sustain an economy of 300 million people off of structured finance and government jobs. The entire West is nothing but a ponzee scheme of excess spending and overly generous welfare states that is ready to collapse.
We staved off 2008 by the skin of our teeth.
Don’t think we shall be so lucky the next time.
He reminds me of the film flam artists of the late 20’s. Yeah, they will just keep buying our debt forever.
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The question is what tools will be left in the box if we do have a recession?
Low unemployment
Today record housing starts
Real income is up over 3% annually
Inflation under 2%
We pay almost a 2.4% on 30 yr bonds other countries negative returns
Dollar too strong, hurts exports, helps US tourists
Manufacturing index is higher
We are increasingly energy independent
The China tariff thing hurts, but them more than us
I just wish we could get an infrastructure bill passed
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to reach consensus. When one side agrees you run around like you won something. Can’t believe that helps your law practice. Because sometimes it just makes you look like an asshole.
point.
I know you don’t like and can’t refute it but it shows his complete ignorance.
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If that was Barry, you would be crying like a little bitch.
They are lowering it slowly to try to stave off recession.
Wouldn’t need to even think about doing it in a truly strong economy.
Only thing propping up the whole thing is consumers spending far beyond their means and lots of McJobs.
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He took over an economy that was at least performing at a middling rate and despite an irresponsible tax cut, has kept it right there.
He’s a moron that has always failed in everything but selling his name and lies to people like you. He couldn’t run a business of any size and can’t govern a nation.
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Look at yourself, denigrating Barry while supporting the most unqualified prez ever. You have no ability to self analyze how stupid you look with shit like that.
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guessing and uncertain.
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Are you happy that the world took advantage of us during Clinton, Bush, Obama. I wasn’t.
We took plenty of advantage under Clinton and Bush, lived like hogs and Barry got stuck with the bag.
the trade war is ruinous and stupid. We have had this discussion and there are better ways of handling them long term.
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Keep deluding yourself until this bubble bursts.
Mortgages are accumulated debt that homeowners owe to the bank. That’s called debt. Right?
Some of the mortgages in ‘08 were garbage backed by Fannie and Freddy and the ratings agencies. The banks and investment houses knew this. They package this crap and sold it as performing when it wasn’t. Watch The Big Short.
The SEC and Fed were asleep at the switch. This current deficit debt funding is there for everyone to see. The Fed just did three straight days of funding successfully. When that doesn’t go well we are screwed. Do you understand how this all works?
At some point it stops being bought.
That’s what happened before.
That is what is going to happen here.
It will happen when the money printer isn’t enough to infuse liquidity into the market.
The same genius’s like you were saying all was well until 2008.
argue what you don’t know. It was a real estate bubble. Will you at least agree with that? People lost their homes, jobs, Wall St firms closed. Got that?
This is different. The US is running $1.2 trillion dollar deficit. But the world keeps loaning us the money. Why? Because everywhere else is shit. Please give me a country you would invest in besides the US. China or the EU?
Stop arguing just to argue. Read a freaking financial newspaper and see how much money is flooding into the US. Why?
Bankruptcies and mortgage defaults are steadily increasing.
Stop being a jackass.
Our debt isnt going to be bought for very long.
And we are having problems finding the dollars to pay for the bonds,
Good god man, I hope you aren't a financial advisor.
Link: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-people-filed-for-bankruptcy-per-capita-in-these-5-states-in-july-and-there-was-a-5-increase-nationwide-2019-08-06
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