Today you, linked NYT opinion: Putin is caught in a trap of his own making. In any event, it seems that the NYT has been wearing two hats or the geopolitical landscape has changed immensely within four days.
I still maintain my opinion that Ukraine, in the eyes of Putin, is of vital strategic interest whereas, the US has no vital strategic interest in Ukraine. That is not to say the Euros don't have a vital strategic interest but I believe with 40 % of their energy flowing from Russia combined with the commercial aspect for Russia, it is possible for each side to stack arms, take off their helmets and stand at ease. As Chris pointed out way below, it was utterly foolish of NATO to announce at Bucharest in April 2008 that Ukraine and Georgia would eventually join NATO. Georgia paid the price four months later and when Ukraine's memory waned in 2014 it lost Crimea.
Now we're at the doorstep again with Mr. Putin still holding several hole cards, i.e., missiles in Cuba and/or Venezuela, forcing the US to eat the Monroe Doctrine without ketchup or alternatively, our pulling back medium range nuclear missiles from Europe which I believe Mr. Biden has mentioned. As I said way below, Russia is protecting what is seen as a vital strategic interest and as such can absorb enormous economic pain to keep NATO off the doorstep not to mention, the potential for the unintended consequence of economic disarray for the Euros.
In any event, as attorney Vinny said, which NYT opinion do you believe holds water?
Actually, I welcome opinions from all posters.
I disagree with you and Chris that Ukraine is of de minimus strategic importance to the United States.
My focus is on the will of the Ukraine people, who have increasingly demonstrated that they are committed to the West, committed to democracy, opposed to autocratic oppression. We have to defend that energy. We have to walk the walk.
Putin is a very calculated person. He assumed that America, having just withdrawn from Afghanistan in clusterfuck fashion, lacked the wherewithal to push back on Putin’s aggression (and obsession) re Ukraine. Putin assumes that Biden is too weak, that America is too divided, and that he will prevail in a game of chicken. He may be right, but Biden (who was very close to McCain) is ol’ school when it comes to Putin.
So, I fear that this could escalate rather quickly, which begs the question: Is Ukraine really worth the potential costs? On the other hand, rewarding Putin via concessions has long term costs, above and beyond empowering Putin. Can the United States be a trusted friend?
Lots of moving parts in war gaming the options. I do not know enough to weigh the green light/red light options. But, I am also very curious how the Average Joe Russian citizen feels about spilling blood to acquire Ukraine. And that really is Putin’s vulnerability and exposure, imho.
Putin controls the media, after all.
This makes it easier for him to back down, though, if he decides to do so.
Link: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/01/25/europe/ukraine-nato-russia-coverage-tv-media-cmd-intl/index.html
Of course, we have Americans who swallow up Fox News, Newsmax, and Joe Rogin, … so I take your point.
And, for them, I want the US to hold strong against Russia. So, I want the US and NATO to say, do not cross this line.
And yet, I also recognize that strategically, Taiwan takes precedence. Sucks.
In the first case...he only went after sections of Georgia that had high concentrations of Russia sympathizers...and similarly, that was the case with Crimea...in fact, it's my understanding that Ukraine's Admiral in charge of its Navy 'defected' to Russia in the aftermath, so Putin probably had plenty of inside help with that operation...not a lot of risk there.
Not so sure that he'd try to take over all of Ukraine, since he's never taken on serious risk of big losses and defeat before...the only 'bite' I see him taking is Donbas and that would likely incur fierce and continuing opposition from Ukraine, proper...possible, but not the move of an insecure bully...guess we'll all have to wait and see.