Why so little correlation with regard to outcomes or cases when behavior is so different.
State to state there are both different rules and different behaviors.... my data points below in NE, MW and South.
I am in NJ and we have been pretty well locked down for a year. Masks on (and the great majority comply) , restaurants limited or closed, schools limited or closed etc. college aged kids remote - my son is at Princeton and is back to school but all remote classes and heavily restricted, frequently tested and no social life. Covid fatality rate here is quite high.
Family in KY, not nearly as restricted, but not open either. Masks yes, but not full compliance and not worrying much about engaging with neighbors, friends etc. Schools more open than NJ and kids appear to have more freedom with sports etc. soccer season was played for example Nephews at Kentucky and Auburn pretty much open... Covid fatality rate bottom ten.
TX, headed to nieces weeding... most open of the bunch... middle of the road with regard to fatalities.
And current case counts provide the same question. NJ last seven day case count is the highest of the three (at almost 2x) and we are still the most restrictive.
And no, I am not saying that masks don't help or that there is some kind of conspiracy, but someone help me with hypothesis on why this could be the case.
(no message)
Ohio has reported 17k deaths and only 7k ICU admissions. How is it that 60% of the people who have died never made it to an ICU unit when our state has never been near ICU capacity? Consider also that not all of those 7k ICU patients were not in there BECAUSE of COVID and the number is even smaller.
Then on the other hand, we have had 50k COVID patients in hospitals. That means that the total deaths equal a third of COVID hospital patients. If they were very ill and ultimately died, how did they never make it to the ICU where there were empty beds?
Are there just huge numbers of people dying who never make it to a hospital? It smells fishy.
Ohio's circumstances, there is an interactive chart for the state on the website that addresses "Hospitalizations", including a breakdown of COVID and non-COVID ICU beds...as you'll see (from September, 2020 to this week) the number of COVID-occupied ICU beds varies from a low in Sept. of just under 9k to a high of 29k in Jan., with the number of un-occupied ICU beds never getting to less than 888...yet just under 17k people died...think "Throughput".
In our state, we get regular emails (if requested) outlining the current COVID situation...in fact each and every death is noted as to the county it occurred in, date of diagnosis, and date of passing. From my many observations, the time period between those two events is anywhere from one week to a month (typically)...so people are being admitted daily...and dying daily...but at no time were our ICU beds filled up.
So, back to Ohio...with 17k deaths each averaging 4 weeks in the ICU (I won't try to estimate the number in personal or care home residences) that's around 68k COVID ICU 'bed weeks' out of, let's say a utilized capacity of 30k COVID ICU beds x 52 wks = 1,560k 'bed weeks', yielding a fatality rate on the order of 4.4%...not unfathomable.
Again, I hope this helps...I also hope that my diminishing math skills haven't added to the confusion.
Link: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/hospitalization-7-day-trend
The numbers you are citing aren't even in the universe of being accurate. Let alone the ballpark. I'll assume you are just reading the graphs wrong.
Your post says OH had at one point 29k ICU beds occupied with COVID patients. We've only had 50k TOTAL CUMULATIVE hospitalizations (not just ICU) throughout the entire pandemic. I already told you we've had 7k total ICU patients during the entire pandemic.
I know for a fact that the JHU numbers are not accurate. And FWIW, my Brother-in-law is an actual Epidemiologist at JHU. I talk to him frequently.
I'm not going to debate but, this is a great example of dirty data and inaccurate information.
(no message)
That's simply wrong. For the third time, we have had 7k TOTAL patients with COVID in our ICUs over the last 12+ months. And they weren't all admitted because they needed to be treated for COVID.
Our ICUs never reached 80% capacity and our hospitals never even reached 70%
apologize for the confusion...for Ohio, the COVID-occupied ICU beds vary from ~360 (Sept) to ~1,200 (Dec), so let's call it an average of 800 per week for 52 weeks which yields just over 40k occupied beds...as for the 17k deaths, I was generous with the 4 week estimate of diagnosis to death...in actuality, those admitted to the ICU were diagnosed earlier and most likely stayed in the ICU for perhaps a week or two (some admittedly much longer)...so let's say 2 weeks in the ICU...that yields 34k bed-weeks total. Of course, not every COVID death was in an ICU...many were in care homes or personal residences, consequently, the overall numbers should alleviate your concerns for any "funny business" going on.
This pandemic is real...try to shift your attention from conspiracies to sources whose only goal is to keep you and yours alive and well.
Again, sorry for the analytic slip up...my bad.
How do you occupy 40k ICU beds with 7k patients?
Where did I ever say the pandemic wasn't real? I have continually been on record here for the past year saying that it is very real and very serious.
How on God's green earth are you concluding that I am engaging in or supporting conspiracies? Because I said the data is flawed? That's a fact, not a conspiracy.
I'm quite sure that those in the infectious disease community intend to help me and provide reliable information. Intentions don't have a lot of utility though.
Long-Term Care facilities...what's unclear is if, or how many, patients were transported to hospitals/ICUs...plus the article is from May, 2020 and things no doubt changed. Nonetheless, other articles paint a picture of LTC facilities being strongly advised not to transport clients to ERs (makes some sense due to the worry about limited ER/ICU staff/equipment, etc.
If the article's statistics held true until now, that would say nearly 12,000 Ohio COVID deaths occurred outside their ICUs, leaving 5,000 to be accounted for in hospital ICUs. (JH data) showed 19,232 COVID-occupied bed-weeks from Aug. to mid-Feb....and further Googling showed a that the avg. stay in an ICU was one week, with an avg. mortality rate of 18.8%...(= 3,420 deaths)...it wouldn't be too much of a stretch to find another 1,580 from Mar. thru July using the same approach...close enough for government work.
As to your fixation on just 7k ICU admissions for the entire pandemic, I'd like to see the source of that info...actually, I don't think either one of us really wants it.
Thanks for letting me 'Nerd Out'.
Link: https://www.forbes.com/sites/theapothecary/2020/05/26/nursing-homes-assisted-living-facilities-0-6-of-the-u-s-population-43-of-u-s-covid-19-deaths/?sh=1916605274cd
As of this week 37% of COVID deaths of have come from residents of LTC facilities (6,600). And we have no data showing us how many of those were admitted to a hospital or ICU at some point.
The data you cite is from a time when the pandemic was in it's early stages. At that time Ohio had fewer than 2k total deaths. The disease was barely understood by the medical community.
You frustrate me because you just KNOW that you are right. And when presented with facts that undermine your narrative, you continue to double down on it with more flawed data.
You have no idea of the data quality being used by JHU. More than likely it isn't raw data. I am using data from the Ohio Department of Health. I have spoken in depth with people who deal with the actual raw data being used by the ODH. We have had discussions on which data is accurate and which may be susceptible to flaws or manipulation. As I said, I also talk directly to an epidemiologist at JHU in the Bloomberg School of Public Health who has been working on the pandemic from day 1.
I have little knowledge of what is going on in NJ, CA, FL or NY, but I know what is happening in Ohio, my county and my zip code.
confusion about a 'disconnect' between the total number of deaths and the number of ICU admissions..."Are there just huge numbers of people dying who never make it to a hospital? It smells fishy".
The short answer is "Yes", there are lots of people who die outside the ICUs...just got off the phone with the oft-mentioned ID Doc...significant numbers of people die in LTC facilities...under quarantine in their homes...and in hospital beds outside the ICU. This is 100% factual...as to the exact numbers in Ohio, you can ask your sources about the breakdown...btw, I'd be curious to see it. As for other places, I tried to share what I had come across...should have asked you early on to post your data.
What still perplexes me is what was behind the phrase "It smells fishy"...that's btw what really perked my interest.
How are people getting sick enough to die and don't need to be in the ICU (which has typically been well below capacity)? I am well aware that people are dying outside of hospitals, etc. It just seems a little odd to me. It also raises questions about what criteria they are using to qualify a death as a COVID death.
The death numbers are still preliminary and will be refined over several years. It's going take a long time to unwind it all.
you...right now I'm in the midst of a drawn out preparation for French Onion Soup (lots of tender care/stirring). I enjoy dialoguing with you...there's got to be a good answer for this.
(no message)
I posted as much last week when I told Frank it just has to run its course. We are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel now.
your concerns...also discussed our own family interaction 'protocol' for the near future, which I'll share...remember, I'm not a Doc and may not have communicated effectively enough, plus we didn't spend a whole lot of time on it...but here goes...
>As to the delta's in outcomes between KY and NJ...it "depends"...
- 'Front Line' workers with lots of random interactions in closed environments and living in multi-generational households are at higher risk for disease.
- Co-morbidities are a significant factor, as you probably know already...often, lower income FL worker households are at higher risk for hospitalization and death.
- Hard to give you an answer w/o some 'deep diving'.
Note: I took a quick look at the attached link (Johns Hopkins COVID data sets) and saw that Kentucky has an overall case positivity rate near 10% and a couple of counties with rates of over 300-400 per 100,000 population...way higher than what is found in NJ (e.g. 48 per 100,000)...you might want to use that data for a personal assessment.
>Our Family Protocol...
Since my wife and I will have completed the Moderna regimen in mid-April, we asked if we could spend more and closer time with family after that...the response..
- so long as we stay in our current "bubble" (i.e. very rare interactions with others, regular masking, social distancing, etc.) we're okay to mingle...should we break that 'social contract' (i.e. gather with others of unknown "pedigree"), we need to re-establish our "bubble" for ~2 weeks, then return to those interactions.
- Reason for all this?...there are non-vaccinated family members involved, including kids...while the kids are at extremely low risk for fatalities, they can still get sick and/or become spreaders to other un-vaccinated and more vulnerable people. BTW, you may have seen recent reports of COVID-infected children who have 'long-term' morbidities (on-going problems with breathing, headaches, etc.), so this is not a 'binary' issue (life/death) are the accounts are significant in number.
Hope this helps...
Link: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/new-jersey
Your risk of death with no vaccine is already less that one tenth of one percent. After your vaccination (along with large numbers of other people) that reduces risk of serious illness by 95%+ the risk of death or serious illness should be statistically insignificant. Yet, you will still go into a "bubble" for two weeks if you ever broke your "social contract"?
To each his own though. Everyone should do what makes them comfortable.
now, but as Frank noted, we're all approaching 'exhaustion' (just look at the various Governors bailing out on here-to-fore accepted practices). However, the country is still experiencing ~2,000 COVID deaths per day...over 540,000 total thus far...somewhere around 75-80% of the population yet to be exposed to COVID...tens of millions vowing not to take any vaccine...etc., etc....you get the picture...we're not "Home Free" by any means.
"The Protocol" comes from two physicians (an Infectious Disease specialist/professor, and an a Pulmonary/Critical Care specialist) who are living this onslaught 'up close and personal'...they have many, many physician friends/associates that they maintain contact with...some in the hottest COVID hospitals in the country. Their only goal is to keep as many people as possible out of those hospitals and out of a morgue. They know how and why pandemics occur and persist...and how to stop them...therefore, we will follow their advice. I pass it along to you and others as a friend.
If we all followed what they are saying, we will wear masks, social distance and have no more large gatherings permanently, because their philosophy is the "one death is one too many" philosophy. It's a philosophy that we literally cannot live with.
highly oppressive nations (think China) they can literally lock citizens into 'bubbles' until the virus spread is contained...we won't do that (unless, God forbid, we get hit with a rampant Ebola pandemic and its observable gruesome manifestations), so it's up to our Public Service leadership to 'show the way' and hope that they are convincing enough that 80+% of the population will do the right thing until the combination of vaccinations and continued mitigation efforts drive the case/death numbers to levels at least as low as the 'Seasonal Flu'...BTW, I'm as interested as you in finding out what those numbers will be...but they won't be the extremes you fear.
Hopefully, you'll be happy to get in line for your vaccine shot(s) and still have the stamina to practice mitigation measures until this Summer/Fall...pass the word to all your friends and family.
Meanwhile...Thank God for Golf!...it has been a mental lifesaver for me and my buds.
(no message)
(no message)
Also had to move my daughter’s wedding.
I don’t get all the masking hatred. I think it helps us stay in business and at least cuts down on spread. Far from perfect but it makes sense until we get more vaxxed.
an unmasked person who has had both doses. That being said, I'll mask until the gubna ends the mandate. And I won't complain.
I think if I had a wedding or something like that planned, I would definitely be annoyed.
Why risk it in the meantime?
My Mom is an organ transplant recipient and I advised her to remain cautious despite having her 2nd dose (the efficacy should be lower for her). But, once I get the vaccine I'll feel perfectly comfortable not continuing with any social distancing.
We will never have everyone vaccinated and the virus will never completely go away. So, it's up to individuals to decide when they are willing to jump back in.
(no message)
(no message)
(no message)
(no message)
(no message)
(no message)
For a long time I used that as a more reliable indicator of how things were going. Not from an absolute numbers perspective (because they have always been inflated) but from a trend perspective.
On 2/10 our total deaths were 11k then a few days later the total deaths were 16k because they were "correcting" death certificate information. Those numbers are now useless and always will be as far as I'm concerned.
In any event, we have more or less been "open" in Ohio for a very long time. For schools, it's up to the individual school districts. My kids are in Catholic school and have been in person this entire school year. The # of cases in their schools are far lower than the general population. Having schools shut at this point is absolute negligence.
Almost everyone in OH masks when inside public places (stores, restaurants, etc) and have for quite some time. People do a pretty good job with social distancing too. I'm convinced that those things do help. Over-all I'm pretty satisfied with how Governor Dewine has handled things. Not perfect but, how could it be?
related despite the attending doctor not feeling that the diagnosis was warranted.
You are wise to question the data. Obviously, deaths have occurred, but the numbers are inflated for political goals
- and this doesn’t even get into issue of the financial incentive to over call the diagnosis.
They squandered their opportunity and lost all credibility. Ditto governments and the media (though those 2 aren't surprising).
a 9/11 every day of the week. The drama was always over the top on some posters.
My kid came home tonight to go over to her HS to watch them play their rival. Very nice crowd on both sides, masks on some but not everyone. The players were socially distanced during introductions and then all piled into the dugouts. The best was when the coach told me after the game that the district wanted the bases sanitized after every game.
Got to watch my daughter's HS soccer team and coach my 8th grader's CYO team. It was fun.
I saw my friend's HS daughter in MI playing soccer games WHILE WEARING A MASK! How dumb can Wittmer be?