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From the CDC website (circa August, 2020)...

Rate ratios compared to 18-29 year olds

Hospitalization1 Death2
0-4 years 4x lower 9x lower
5-17 years 9x lower 16x lower
18-29 years Comparison Group Comparison Group
30-39 years 2x higher 4x higher
40-49 years 3x higher 10x higher
50-64 years 4x higher 30x higher
65-74 years 5x higher 90x higher
75-84 years 8x higher 220x higher
85+ years 13x higher 630x higher

Now I don't want to quibble about any current vs. August data, but when factoring in Aragoto's personal experience, you'd have agree that folks under 70 are not "Free to move about the cabin".

Aside from the direct risk of COVID death and long term negative effects, my ID and ICU doc friends texts sound very loud alarms...they are hearing from their peers in middle America (e.g. Nebraska, South Dakota) of hospitals being overrun, with the effect of MI's (heart attacks) and Bowl Obstructions, to name just a few, not getting the immediate care they demand. Any talk of "Herd Immunity" or just letting the pandemic 'run its course' is inviting a HC catastrophe...just saying.

He said people under 70 aren't at risk, so you run a comparison to people under 40? How does that prove anything? If the number below 40 is very very low, then 30X that number could still be very low.

That said, I agree with you that the OP understated the risks. I got through this thing at age 54, seemingly OK. But I know others in my age group that had it pretty bad.

showed all age groups, including the "reference" or "comparison" group, which would indicate up to a 60X relative risk for those in the 60yr cohort. In any event, I've included a more recent data set in the linked report.

As for yourself, I'm very glad to hear that you dodged that bullet. Here's to continued success on the vaccine front.


Link: https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid

Personally, I feel that the shut down has a higher price than the pandemic.

There are people, who based on their age or medical risk factors find the pandemic to be more risky while there are others who find the lock down more dangerous and damaging.

I believe in isolating or “shutting down” the high risk people, not the low risk people. But regardless of which way we choose, we lose.

China “F’d us in the A”, and it is wise to remember that.

Chris pretends that people who are against shutdown don't care. Obviously that is not true. He is just looking at only part of the problem because that part helps his political agenda. If he took a broader view, he would see that reasonable people can disagree with him. Running a society is a balancing act, and it requires value judgements...we can't just "do what the scientists say." Anyone who pushes that line of thought is selling something, and it isn't the whole truth.

We can stop auto deaths with a national shutdown, too, but we don't. No one claims we don't care about car accident deaths. We all obviously do. But even though "science" tells us we can stop auto deaths by banning autos, we don't, because we make value judgements...we don't just follow the science. We deem the value of the auto outweighs the harm. In the case of covid, there are less disruptive ways to handle the situation than shutting down the entire country, and people who support those less disruptive actions are wrongly accused of not caring...accused merely for political reasons.

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People would not be going to restaurants (or stores, or concerts) whether they were open or not. At least not in the same numbers.

Getting the virus under control was the ONLY way to help the economy.

On that, we failed.

"contain the virus". At that point, we could really only hope to flatten the first curve, which we did. The only containment realistically possible was in vaccine development and in theraputic advances.

The vaccine development has been historically fast thanks to Operation Warp Speed for which Mike Pence (not Donald Trump) deserves the lion's share of the credit. Additionally, the development of Remdesivir was a big break through. Management protocols have also been impressively developed in the absence of data in large part.

Politically, nonscientific pols like yourselves will always conveniently interpret events in your predetermined light. You will also seek out those scientific opinions that favor your view while dismissing those that are less politically convenient.
Medically and scientifically speaking, I feel that the problem has been managed well - especially under the handicap of all of the surrounding politics and agenda driven media.

It is inevitable that you will now see all management decisions of the crisis by your party leaders to be good ones, but we expect that. Regardless, my hat is off to the Trump administration for a job well done as a whole, and exceptionally done in the most important medical areas mentioned here.

And again, the shutdown is more damaging than the pandemic.

>First of all, from all reports I've seen recently, COVID cases are increasing at geometric rates all across the country, so while we were once on the verge of flattening the curve, we are now experiencing a full-on surge...btw, this is not just a U.S. concern...I've been emailing with a close Italian friend in Rome who tells me that their government/HC officials are imposing tight restrictions for the very same reasons (many other countries as well).
>I've been texting/emailing with ID and ICU Doc friends about their views and they are highly alarmed right now...they're communicating with peers in other parts of the country (e.g. Nebraska, South Dakota) and hearing of hospitals being literally overrun, with the consequent effect of not only increased COVID morbidities, but the lack of ability to provide urgent care to MI (heart attack) and Bowel Obstruction cases, to name just a couple of areas for which the general public counts on their HC system in "normal times".

>The virus needs 'new hosts' in order to survive, therefore if we stop the means of transmission, we kill it. Since "Opening Up" goes against that logic, a temporary shutdown, designed around the known features/parameters of this pathogen, is a positive step toward putting this behind us...along with continued mitigation, testing and contact tracing...before and after "V-Day".
>This strategy has been successfully employed already...the medical professionals have "earned their stripes" with Smallpox, Polio, Ebola and other battles...what we need now is a healthy dose of "Trust" in their Rx.

>BTW, I'd like to carry on a discussion of China/COVID in another thread.

People are wearing them everywhere and still the number of cases rise. Our government and the Great Fauchino has failed us on two counts by not doing these two things:

1) Telling everyone surgical masks don't work and that anyone who feels vulnerable if they get the virus should wear an N95 respirator mask + face shield/goggles.

2) Telling doctors to immediately prescribe hydroxychloroquine/zinc/azithromycin to vulnerable people upon diagnosis.

Had we done those two things, we'd be talking about less than 100,000 deaths (per Dr. Harvey Risch of Yale) and we'd be operating as normal.

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correct...at this point, nothing short of a full medical HAZMAT suit can protect you. While that is completely unreasonable, we can employ masks that will definitely "mitigate" the spread of COVID. Together with hand washing, social distancing and disinfecting surfaces we can significantly reduce the morbidity of the disease until "V-Day" when hopefully everyone will avail themselves of the vaccine.

I've mentioned in other posts that extended family members with Infectious Disease and Critical MD specialties, who are not normally 'excitable', are texting their alarm about the possibility of hospitals being overrun with COVID patients, such that more COVID deaths and long term infirmities...and...causing their finite resources of doctors, nurses, staff and equipment to be exhausted and unable to serve "normal" emergencies and critical treatments like Heart Attacks, Bowel Obstructions, Kidney Dialysis or Cancer Treatment. That alarm was raised because they are in contact with friends and peers in other parts of the country who are now experiencing just such challenges.

To underscore this point, it's being reported this evening that the Governors of South Dakota and Utah are announcing "Mask Mandates" for everyone in their states...which of course goes to the first item we touched on.

for replying.

I think mask deniers are a dying breed. Nice to have one in captivity.

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regarding being overrun with COVID cases.

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Immune systems

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And another 3 who almost did. 68, 35 and 45 years old.

Knowing people who’s lives are destroyed by this pandemic will change your perspective.

It’s not insignificant to me.

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Link: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1327125840040169472?s=20

Perhaps we are too close to a vaccine to consider a lockdown. But such a move - which Osterholm has supported for months - would stop the virus in its tracks.

Never going to work in a country too stupid to wear masks.

Every single bit of advice that claims surgical and cloth masks work is hypothetical or theoretical. Here is an examination of real RCTs showing they don't work, period, to contain viral spread.

Link: Masks not effective in preventing viral transmission

And masks help, but is far more important to frequently and thoroughly wash your hands.

More importantly, cancer and heart disease kill far younger people and will continue into the future whereas COVID will become irrelevant when we have a vaccine and relative herd immunity. Most crucially there is a total disconnect between infections and deaths because new infections are primarily among the young, who know there is no threat to them. Look at Trever Lawrence and the on field celebration last weekend and the post election Democrat street celebrations. They know the truth!

Link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm

I'm 67 and I don't know what to believe. Been told so many things, makes my head spin. So, I do what I think is best for me. Mask and social distancing the best I can. At the same time, I won't stop living a "normal" life. Someone in my family is under 50, has the virus, and they are hurting bad. They said they wouldn't wish it on anyone. It's real.

You cannot have a choice or do what you feel is best for you. It's not allowed.

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Expressing that he is going to do what is right for his own life is not real popular on here. He must fall in line.

Do it to next April at least. The govt can mandate it, but it can’t force it. It’s up to us. If we have this little regard for our fellow citizens, we will have 500K dead by the time of a vaccine arrival. Is it really that hard to do these things for about one year, counting back to last March? We honor our greatest generation and their war sacrifice yet we are such pussies that we can’t do these simple things? Shameful.

not trust anyone. A guy who you trust (Fauci) is a prime example. You will spin this back on Trump because Orange man bad.

I’m 73. I take all the precautions and I’m cool with that. But when there is a vaccine all bets are off. There are so many other ways we could save lives, especially of the young (like lower speed limits, higher age for drivers license and prohibition), but we live with a tolerable amount of risk. Once there is a vaccine COVID should become just another risk we have to live with.

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