We have wrecked the education and mental well-being of a generation because of hysteria.
Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-has-become-less-deadly-but-that-could-change-as-cases-rise-11606213802?st=w8y1os9rq7g7ek5&reflink=article_copyURL_share
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If it was not, I would agree with you that we should fully reopen and shoot for herd immunity. At this point, we are so close that it's not worth sacrificing my parents and other loved ones with compromised immune systems.
Open the schools, wear masks, quarantine the elderly. Boom!
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It says the rate is estimated at 0.6%. It says that one research thinks it could be as low as 0.15%, but the link was pay-walled. When you read articles like this, you have to ask what do they mean by "could be". That often means that there is a range of numbers, and the low end of the range is 0.15%. That in no way means that the "survival rate is now estimated at 99.85%."
But, based on this mischaracterization, every knucklehead on this board will go out telling people that it is now accepted that COVID is no worse than the flu.
The survival rate for confirmed cases is 99.6%. Many people don't get tested, so there are many more people who have covid than who are confirmed to have covid. An expert on infectious disease thus estimates that the actual survival rate is probably around 99.85%. That is why I said "estimated" in the heading. It's really not that hard to understand, dude.
"The coronavirus is now killing around 0.6% of people it infects, an improvement from April, when the death rate was about 0.9%, says the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington."
It then goes on to say that another researcher suggests it "could be" even lower, down to 0.15%
And I didn't see anything there about the 99.6% survival rate for confirmed infection cases. You can estimate the CFR (case fatality rate) from the daily worldometer numbers. Currently, today, we have 161,000 new cases, and 2,100 deaths. That is about 1.3%. I know that's not exact because there is a delay between detection and death. It's actually higher since the average new case number from about two to four weeks ago was even lower. Shoot, to get to a 99.6% survival rate with 2,100 cases, there would have to be a daily average of 525,000 confirmed cases. We've never sniffed anything like that number. Where did you get the 99.6% survival rate for confirmed cases?
Confirmed cases are not equal to all cases. Of all cases, the immunologist asserts the survival rate is as high as 99.85%. This is because many people are either asymptomatic or not tested.
So the range is between 99.40 and 99.85. If you assume our current testing regime finds almost all cases, you will say it is the low end. If you recognize that many cases are never tested you will say it is the high end. That’s what the immunologist is doing.
It is barely more deadly than the flu, and yet we have wrecked millions of livelihoods because of it. Pure hysteria. Mistakes were made.
At least we can boil this down to a simple misread of the article. That's not a big deal.
The article says:
1. They estimate the current IFR to be 0.6%, but some other guy says it could be as low as 0.15%.
2. They don't talk about CFR because it is unreliable (which is basically true).
3. Generally available sources put the CFR currently above 1.0%t to 1.5%. Again, that's not much use but that's the number.
I think point 1 is where the confusion lies. The article doesn't say the CFR is 0.6% (no one does). It says that the (IFR) fatality rate is estimated to have dropped from 0.9% to 0.6%. It also says that one research says it "could be" as low as 0.15%. That sounds like a range (if your range is 0.15 to 0.95, then it "could be" 0.15), but clearly the article doesn't rely on that number. It presupposes the 0.6% IFR number.
This thing has killed multiple times the number of people the flu does. It's a bad hombre. We are getting better at handling it, for sure. But it's not the flu or anything like it.
It’s filled hospitals and caused delays in getting other treatment there.
But yeah the hysteria has ruined the mental health of kids..
Such BS nonsense.
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Link: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#AgeAndSex
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Link: Dr. Frank
Said nobody.
Please do these types of conversations through board mail.
Your embrace of superficial analysis betrays you every time, asshole.
Did you ever make it to remedial statistics at St. Copious of Northern Nebraska?
And for his lack of friends. There is a pattern there.
.
Do better, basement boy.
Obviously not Mr. Algebra for Poets.
Happily there are a LOT of Frances books out there. Androgynous Frances is still a relevant role model in today's world. Congratulations!
Such a predictable twit.
said nobody, again.
C’mon Piggles, an 8th grader could do better.
If I keep replying you will keep trying to get the last word in. You are a very weird person.
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It really is weird, dude.
And you got pal Muttly chiming in at the ankles.
Sure, I've done my share...usually with Frank. Others have as well...usually with Frank. None do it more than Frank. He is the common factor in the deep threads. He lives for this shit.
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If 1900 Americans had been killed by terrorists, this country would be melting down.
We are 3-4 months away from being done with it.
I'm not calling anyone out for making mistakes. Decisions were made with imperfect information. It is now clear that this disease is not nearly as deadly as our initial experience made it seem. It is time to make adjustments and stop victimizing our children. Open the fucking schools.
The increased measures are not going to be there for long.
We all should just quit the whining and behave until the vaccines get here. Which is soon.
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Unemployment claims STILL running at four times a level that would have been considered catastrophic a couple of years ago.
Meanwhile, "Science" tells us that children are less likely to catch/transmit covid in a controlled school environment than they would be at home. And yet we are closing schools all across the country and making a bad situation much, much worse. Pure craziness.
1) What are your sources for your claims about suicide? I have not seen that.
2) The studies I HAVE seen, however, point out that the economic collapse is not due less to the government-mandated shutdowns than the decrease in consumer demand - or at least change in consumer behavior - caused by the virus. People would not be going to restaurants or theaters in sustainable numbers, with or without lockdowns.
Our school system has been up-and-running since August, without problems. That can be done.
Reminder: this is all because we failed to control the virus initially. We failed.
Link is to an article about it. Article has a link to the study it quotes.
My beef at the moment is with school systems shutting down. My local school district is always in the top 5 in the state, and the demographic is certainly skewed wealthy. We are in virtual mode above 5th grade. The high school principal reports an alarming number of students are currently failing multiple subjects. This is in an area with more than adequate parental support and no lack of technology. I can only imagine the shit show currently happening in poor school districts. This is a disastrous disservice to Gen Z. These kids have been set back by years. They are not only not keeping up, they are regressing.
I don't think we could have avoided an economic slowdown from Covid. I also don't think we could have stopped it in its tracks. Masks are ubiquitous in my area and social distancing is practiced...but rates continue to increase. Happily, the latest news on survival rates is very encouraging and, IMO, should make people reevaluate the approaches being taken.
Current data unambiguously indicates that we should open schools nationwide. Mask them up, but get them in the seats - pronto.
Link: https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/are-suicides-on-the-rise-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/
Yet daily cases are higher than ever. Go masking mandate!
Biden will stop this virus in its tracks! He’ll show small hands a thing or two!
Given the surging amount of infections, about the same number are dying each day as they did in March and AprIl even with a declining rate.
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Before this Trump Flu, I was out of it as much as in it in a daily basis.
I also own a small bidness and make payroll bi monthly.
I don’t suck off the teet of corporate America.
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No one comes to you when they have brain cancer and the insurer won’t pay for their experimental treatment and someone has to go to bat for them.
Piss off asswipe drone.
You are such an asshole you get in arguments with everyone
A lot has to do with your arrogance.....an arrogance based on what I dont know
Get a life.....
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Most of the semester, my daughter has been OK but there definitely were moments of mental breakdowns. She has one in person class and taking Chem lab and biology lab online is a joke. She is home now to finish out the semester virtually. Part of her anxiety is not having softball. She is so used to being in a team atmosphere and having it stripped away is hard on her. Hopefully next year the season happens.
Of course, they are in parochial school so they get to go to school. And they were able to play soccer in the Fall. A lot of people aren't nearly as fortunate.
Inner-city kids have been dealt a very bad hand.
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Our parish school filled up to max capacity with kids from the public schools because of this.
But, it appears these people still voted for the candidates that wanted the schools shut down... or fraud or whatever.