I think best case scenario is 4 losses, obviously I'm hopeful for the perfect season, but that's what it looks like to me
Week to week.
Sports have a lot todo with attitude and momentum.
Go irish
The first game or two will be an indicator of whether or not the new approach has solidified the team, or turned it into a mass of gelatinous substance.
The way I see it, almost anything would be better than last year, where the only thing we built up was finding new ways to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Worst case scenario, 6-6.
If Brian Kelly can't get us to a top 25 finish this year, then he'll be ousted. That's going to take at least a 9-3 season.
The bad news is, that he's entirely out of mulligans. Produce this year, or else be canned.
The good news is, that maybe he's learned his lesson, and with the adjustments made in the off-season, getting us to a decent season (at least 9 wins) is quite doable, as long as he lets the coaches do their jobs.
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The 2017 team should be vastly improved from the 2016 version, which conceivably could have gone 10-2 or 11-1 with the 2017 team taking their place. I don't understand this incrementalism thinking constantly seen on this board, where going from 4-8 to 11-1 is seen as impossible.
It appears we finally have competent coaches running both the offense and defense, along with a vastly improved S&C program. The players' attitudes are great, and this team has real talent. Wimbush is in his third year in the program, and if he's even half as good as advertised, he will be extremely good.
I will be disappointed with anything less than 10-2, and frankly I expect this team to be in the conversation for the playoff.
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But...
It all depends on whether Brian Kelly is truly willing to let the assistants do their jobs, instead of trying to micromanage everything.
It took him 7 years to figure out, that what worked exceptionally well in the small pond of the Big East, wasn't going to work very well here.
He turned in two excellent seasons (2012, 2015), one decent season (2013), and the rest were mediocre to poor. If he can't do the job this year (at least matching 2015's level), he should be given the heave-ho. This isn't the place for small pond micromanagement.
It's a lot of hope and a prayer kind of thinking...totally new untested QB, poor defense last year with not a lot of signs of improvement, but yeah 11-1, 10-2 perfectly normal....
Keep drinking the Koolade if it makes you feel better
But it will be remarkable improvement from last year.
Care to wager?
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and a couple of sneaky good teams. Of course for BC, Miami OH and Navy it'll be the Super Bowl.
So yeah its a tough schedule. And 2018 is considerably tougher.
even though I agree that 4 losses are probable and 5 even likely.
That's one of the most frustrating parts of last season is it was ND's easiest schedule in years.
I think there are basically 4 very tough games on the schedule: USC, @Stanford, UGA and @ Miami. Best case scenario is ND splits those and finishes 10-2. Worst case is ND drops all 4 or maybe wins 1 of the 4, but loses another road game (either @ UNC or @MSU).
I think 9-3 or 8-4 are most likely. Less than 8-4 and Kelly's fired.
They are probably going to add Kevin Austin soon, and he is pretty damn good, then that's another quality four star player to this class.
If he was 8-4, or even 7-5, and Jurkovec, Allen, the Twins, Austin, Lenzy, and Gervin hung in there, I think they'd keep him.
On the flip side, if he's 8-4, or even 9-3, and they drop some of those guys, specifically Jurkovec or Allen, then he'd be in real trouble.
competing for a championship in 2018. Just keeping it real, a tough schedule and a new QB in 2017. I'm not expecting them to go defeated but I want to see improvement from last year. Van Gordon and Kelly cost us a few addional wins more than anything. We have to give credit to Kelly for changing and bringing in true outsiders but it's year one of new systems. There is talent on this team. I would like to see them add more LB and D line studs. Recruiting is going well so far.
This class has a chance to be really, really good. That said, I think 7-5 would cause enough turmoil to result in some significant defections. I think 8-4 or better, the class stays together (for the most part), and Kelly is retained. 7-5 or worse and Kelly's lame duck status will cause recruits to jump ship and he'd get canned.
We'll see. Will definitely be one of the more interesting seasons.
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Hopefully he will be, but he's young with a very sparse resume. I like everything I'm hearing, but too soon to tell.
Notre Dame under Kelly hasn't been so hot on the road.
Road games in 2017:
Boston College
Michigan State
North Carolina
Miami
Stanford
Let's assume that 3-2 is the most reasonable, with the most likely being BC, MSU, and UNC (who lost a ton of talent)
Home games in 2017
Temple
Georgia
Miami (OH)
USC
NC State
Navy
5-2 is probably most reasonable here.
So you're 8-4 looks pretty good, I don't think that's best case, but the most likely. Best case for me is 4-1 on the road, 6-1 at home.
Wins
Miami Ohio
Temple
Losses
Southern Cal- they can hang 60 on us
Georgia - they can rush for 300 on us
Stanford
The rest are coin flips
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I assume this to mean you don't think there is a game that absolutely can't win. Thus, they could win all the games, but probably won't.
But, I'm not really sure that's what you meant.
A lot of them are sure wins. Am I going to predict their final record at this point? No, I'm dumb but not a total idiot.
Why can't they lose to Temple? Why can't they lose any of the road games? Why can't they lose to Navy?
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But, to call them a sure thing?
They can play poorly and beat Miami Ohio pretty easy.
They can play poorly and lose to anyone else.
The offense will be ok or better and the defense will be improved tremendously. That's my story and I'm sticking to it :)
with a new system on both sides of the ball. After that every team will have figured us out
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so many changes. Stanford and USC could be great, or mediocre. The other teams too, could be mediocre, good, or terrible. I would say ND is the most uncertain of the bunch. Temple had a great season last year. That would horribly suck to lose that one, but they could be good, even though I believe they lost their coach
that are question marks to me: UGA, MICH St, USC, Miami, Stanford
I think we have more talent than UGA, but these are games they generally pull out.
We should beat MSU
USC probably throttles us again
Miami we should beat but they will be better
Stanford, I think we've had the better team for a few years but they now own us. Probably a loss.
Probably 2 and 3, maybe 3 and 2. Long shot 4-1
We should win all the others, but you know we're good for a screw up at some point. Probably UNC or NC St., if not both.
I'll just go with the Kelly average 8-4 worst case 6-6.
You give SC too much credit. They are not in the same hemisphere as they were between 2001-2008. Last year was more about ND coaching than SC talent.People said the same thing after the 2014 game, then ND beats them, and should have blown them out in 2015.All in spite of our porous defense.
I expect ND to beat them at home and expect plenty of pressure on their QB. They come in very thin on the O-line and lost their top play makers. Their D will be solid, but not dominate.
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I'm saying 6-6 at worst and 9-3 at best. We need to win our home games. I'm very interested to see what effect our new coaches bring.