I know we have 3 more games to win but let’s dream a little and say we end up #3 and need to beat Clemson and Alabama for the title. Losing Bars and with the current scheme of run I do not think we can run the ball consistently against either teams front seven. Since Book has shown great percentage of short to medium passing I would say Kelly would need to produce an offense of 85 to 15 pass to run ratio. We would need to throw often and hope for YAC with our athletes. Move the chains and occasionally book would need to take off or run a draw to keep the defense honest. I know that is a tough order and could get him killed but these slow developing run plays are not going to do anything against either of those 2 defenses, they are too fast and athletic. To beat either team Notre Dame would need to score at least 35 points to have a chance and hope our defense can create turnovers.
The other issue I see is that both of these teams are so deep that even if we were able to be successful with a strategy like this for a half, they would not tire because they rotate constantly and have great depth. Notre Dame would need a perfect game and some luck to beat both of those teams. Interested to hear others thoughts and the % of beating both Clemson and Alabama if we are #3.
Clemson - (50%) Fr QB and they have not played anyone yet. Elite defense and their speed may be the difference.
Alabama - (5%) Saban even though he is a complete ass he is the best big time coach in college football. This team may be better then the 2012 team.
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I think Clemson and Alabama are two totally different games. The Clemson Offensive line is not great. They would have issues with the ND Defensive line. I think that's a battle ND wins and it puts the Clemson freshman QB under pressure all day, and Clemson is having issues running the ball lately. They scored in the mid 20's vs Syracuse and Texas AM and the ND defense is better. I think ND holds them to the low 20's/high teens. On the other side of the ball, their secondary is average at best. If the offensive line can give Book a little time, I think the passing game would have a field day. I think ND is a bad match up for Clemson and ND wins that game.
Alabama is obviously a different story. I do think the ND defensive line would be fine and limit the Alabama running game to 200 yards, and the LB's/secondary match up well. To keep them in check, a team needs to limit "Bama to long drives and stay away for the big play. Easier said than done, but ND has high draft NFL talent at all three levels (Tillary, Coney, and Love - all probable day 1 draft guys). It'd be hard to think that a team that has a potential first round draft pick at each level couldn't defensively compete. (Not mentioning Tranquil could be a day 2 draft guy and Gilliam a day 3 guy). ND's secondary is physical enough to get their hands on "Bama receivers, which you have to do to re-route them and mess with their Tua timing.
Offensively, I think the ND offense would be OK. If 'Bama has any issues its on defense. Their D-line is very good, but not great and their secondary is susceptible. To beat them, you have to pass the ball (not sure I'd go 85/15 - but maybe 25/75 to keep them honest), and stay away from their LB's. With Books short game accuracy, their DB's need to play up and that leaves them open to deep balls. Most teams that have beat them, have beat them through the air and have had big play success.
Clemson - (60%) I think ND is a bad match up for Clemson
Alabama - (20%) I think its a better game than people think
I don't see it.
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The highs (when we are good) and lows (when we are bad) will give you whiplash.
We'd have to play our best to have a chance of winning, while if we went in there F'ing around like we have some games, we might get Louisville sluggered.
With Bama, our best game keeps it close if they are having an off night...we go at them with anything less than our best and they'll have to make up a new term for the amount of ass kicking.
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1. Who have they played - a 4 loss Texas A&M team and Syracuse. They will play Pittsburgh in ACC Championship Game.
2. Last time we played Clemson - last second 2 point conversion to beat us at their house.
Nothing about that resume says to me greater than 50% chance loss.
That makes sense.
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I feel that we might give them an interesting game if we can give Book decent pass blocking... but we would have to avoid any turnovers