This is over the last 31 games going back to the beginning of the 2019 season. I don't see how this can be interpreted as anything other than Kelly being right about taking the ball first.
31 games
27 – ND gets ball first
87% - Take Ball First
13% - Lose toss or defer
25% - 3 and out (7/27)
75% - Sustained Drives (Avg Drive = 52 yards)
48% - Scoring Drives (13/27 possessions – Avg 5.8 points)
22% - Opponent scores in 1st possession of 2nd half (6/27)
78% - Opponent punts on 1st possession of 2nd half
9 = Net number of extra possessions for ND (ND gets ball 1st and last possessions of 1st half)
75 points – Points ND scored on 1st possession
33 points – Points ND allowed in 1st possession of 2nd half
+42 points – Differential in ND points vs opponent points
In the 4 games against Clemson (2), Alabama and Georgia ND did not have a 3 and out (scored twice)
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Link: Defer or take the ball
Some coaches may see that as more important and it may have to do with their overall strategy or perceived strengths/weaknesses.
Some coaches have great success with scripted packages they use to open games. Some may have better success on defense after setting in and making adjustments (Clark Lea is a good example). There are lots of other factors as well.
I don't see it as a one size fits all. It would be interesting to look at total possessions by ND and also break it down by halves. They should come out in the wash but, it could also be affected by approaches to time management. Managing time is inherently different in the first half vs second half.
I think each team is different and a coach has to find out what is best for them (hopefully through some data analysis). And that could change week to week, depending on the opponent and situation.
there is no way of knowing what the alternative outcomes would have been if he deferred all this times.
What we do know is that when you win toss and defer, it opens up the possibility (though unlikely) that the other team makes a mistake and elects to kick off giving you ball first in both halfs.
While this is rare and unlikely, when you take the ball first that rare possiblity become 0% chance. In a game that can literally come down to one play or a few inches any given day, choosing the option that increases your odds by any amount is the smart way to go more often than not.
This is one tangible reason you should "almost" always defer when you win the toss, there are other reasons that are less tangible but when you know the game and look at likely situations, they make good sense.
Typically the first few minutes is when players are most amped up... this excess excitement can be detrimental to offensive execution, but can be a benefit to defensive intensity (not all will agree, but my belief is execution is most important for offensive success over intensity while intensity is most important for defensive success over execution...not saying execution or intensity isn't good for both sides, just which is more critical) using this early part of the game to let your D go out and get a hot start while your O calms down a little and potentially gets off to an early edge in the field position battle is the wiser way to go.
Also, while rare, deferring to the second half opens door for the possibility of getting the late first half score and then getting ball right back and scoring again creating a potential 14 point swing in short amount of time. Again while this is rare, it's a possibility if you defer while it's not if you don't, and as a HC you should be making decisions that slant all the little things in your favor because it's an unknown how close any game will be.
Also, just getting the ball first in the second half is a very powerful position to be in from an overall game management position, as 50% of regulation is over and you have a much better view of what kind of game is unfolding than you do before opening kickoff. ie, are you down big are you up big, do want to run tempo and get some quick scores or is it in your best interest to eat some clock up. These are all things you're in better position to make an informed strategic decision on at the start of second half, vs using previous game analytics to guess on before the ball has even been kicked off.
Now I don't think you should pigeon hole yourself and ever be fully predictable, in other words I'm not saying you should "always" defer... I'm saying there are many more reasons to "almost" always defer.
I think only looking at stats since '19 (which covers period when Kelly had his most consistent success and best performing QB, probably slants the stats one way while I think if you put all years under Kelly into the mix it would even it out or even slant it back the other direction, but there are very few valid counter points I've heard to the things I mentioned above.
That's my take on it..
Electing not to defer just so you have a 1/1000 chance of the other team making a ridiculous mistake is silly. There are analytics that give you tangible reasons for receiving or deferring.
And the numbers I listed don't lie. Teams are NOT getting an extra possession. Kelly is. That's just a fact. The "being amped up" and making mistakes on offense doesn't hold water either ( again, backed up by the data). Kelly's teams are scoring at a higher rate in first possessions compared to all other possessions.
Also, not every team should follow the same strategy. It's not one size fits all. Each team has strengths, weaknesses that could dictate a different approach.
It's fair to say we don't know what the results would have been if he always deferred. But, we can compare productivity on 1st possessions vs overall productivity. We can also see the result of gaining extra possessions (which the data shows) when taking the ball first.
using analytics to assist is good, being married to analytics rather than managing the game with a strategy that gives you the most possible slight advantages, is not.
The numbers you listed don't "lie" they are just tragically incomplete which could very well be painting a false picture, or a lie.
And from a strategic standpoint, putting the opposing coaches in more situations where they have to make decisions, opens the door for them to make mistakes...it's not like we haven't seen it happen before, actually I think it was either Weis or Kelly that blew that once and elected to kick off when the other team deferred.
If you want to have off board conversation on this and maybe partner up on collecting full stats let me know, but presenting this as the full picture is just false (and I admit, I don't know what full stats would show, might hold same trend, might not but worth looking into if you want to continue defending Kelly defying conventional wisdom).
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On the flip side though, you didn't provide any. I'd be happy to consider it.
For example you draw a straight line between offense scored so Kelly was right, but I'm sure you know it's not that simple. There are lots of times Kelly and all coaches make the correct decision/play call etc but players mess up, or flip side coaches make bad decisions and players overcome it. End result doesn't equal coach was right or wrong, or Kelly would have to have done something wrong every time we don't score and when other team does.
I look at HC primary role on game day is to put players in best position to be successful, but imo end result isn't necessarily best way to keep dge that...but starting point might be, as in what was our starting field position in 1st and 3rd quarters vs the opponent. Also, how many times were we in position to score on last possession of first half (not always that we did score, but did he make decisions that put us in position to?) and would have had chance for the double up if he had deferred vs. how many times did opponents score on final drive of first half and then got ball first in 2nd half because he took ball (I wouldn't count ones against him where other team won toss and deferred, only ones where he gave them ball first in 2nd half and they had opportunity for the double up, even if they didn't pull it off).
Yeah we can do a little collaboration, reduce work and help keep up both honest so any biases don't sway how we collect/view the numbers... just hit me up with a private message and we can start something up, not tonight though I'm wiped out from going to the gym earlier.
So quit trying to argue using reason, logic and empirically verifiable data. Are you right? Yep. Will anyone listen, or will you win the opinion because of accurate data? Nope.
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How many other programs do the same? Whether he defers or not is #25 on my list to complain about. It's never been a thought. If the defense is going to give up points right before the half then the opponents get the ball right back starting 2nd half, that's not good either. I can't remember if BK has always had that philosophy since day one at ND. If so, we need to add a few more years to that running total to get a complete picture. Way too much work though. Anyway, good work. That was very interesting.
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