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U.S. private sector just added 96k real jobs in last 3 months. On the other hand the threat of inflation still is hanging here. Inflation actually hasn't gone away. Powell knows it. This creates a dilemma for the Fed.
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It's a close call, though. Market is pricing it roughly 60/40 between 50 and 25. My feeling is that they won't want to signal panic with a large first move. We will see.
Maybe another cut before year end. Really depends on the data.
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