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Trump approval soars per Quinnipiac poll. Dems at lowest approval since 2008

Author: BaronVonZemo (60141 Posts - Joined: Nov 19, 2010)

Posted at 1:26 pm on Jan 30, 2025
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Link: https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/poll-donald-trump-ratings/2025/01/30/id/1197119/

This message has been edited 1 time(s).

Replies to: Trump approval soars per Quinnipiac poll. Dems at lowest approval since 2008


Thread Level: 2

Just on tv, keep it up lefties

Author: cubsfanin16 (5502 Posts - Joined: Aug 25, 2016)

Posted at 5:55 pm on Jan 30, 2025
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Thread Level: 3

I wonder how the Left is rationalizing the election results which backs this poll up?

Author: BaronVonZemo (60141 Posts - Joined: Nov 19, 2010)

Posted at 8:31 pm on Jan 30, 2025
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This message has been edited 2 time(s).

Thread Level: 2

Quinnipiac has a history of creating bias...

Author: TyroneIrish (20682 Posts - Joined: Oct 8, 2020)

Posted at 1:53 pm on Jan 30, 2025
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....from the attached article...
--------------------
Quinnipiac University’s “worst president” poll got a lot of press. Washington Post, the New York Times, CNN, Fox, and virtually every other news outlet have carried the headline, “Obama is the Worst President since WWII.” This particular survey question is press-chum. The survey’s designers likely knew it would get the press’s attention and included it for that purpose. Mission accomplished. The problem is it tells us practically nothing.

For one, this question lacks consistent measurement. Without consistent measures it is difficult to trust the “marginals” (raw percentages of agree/disagree, approve/disapprove, etc). The reason is that any single survey is subject to a variety of errors and biases. The sample can be biased. The survey’s respondents may not represent the actual population. Question wording can bias results. For example, research by Tom Smith (1987) shows questions using the words “welfare” rather than “poor” elicit more negative responses on surveys.

Similarly, question ordering can bias results. For example, offering respondents a question about unrest in the Middle East followed later by a question asking the respondent to judge the president on foreign affairs can bias responses. In this case, the surveyor has primed respondents with hostility and violence overseas. This can lead to more negative responses than if the survey leads with questions about foreign policy successes. (I haven’t looked through the rest of the poll, but the “worst president” is question 36 in this survey.) This can make interpreting the marginals without a track-record difficult for researchers or, in this case, the public.

However, the real crux is the nature of the question itself. The question effectively asks respondents to compare current events to past events. This flies in the face of what we know about survey response. John Zaller, often in collaboration with Stanley Feldman, illustrated that respondents answer questions based on what is at the “top-of-their-head.” Recent stimuli affect the attitudes respondents use to answer a question. For example, if you ask somebody today about their thoughts on politics, you are likely to receive an opinion on issues most recently in the news cycle, like unaccompanied children crossing the border into the US. If you asked the same question a month ago, the individual likely talked about another issue entirely, one that was popular at that time. And if you ask it five months from now, these issues may not register at all.

This makes retrospective questions like the one in the Quinnipiac poll biased against sitting presidents. Obama’s rank as the “worst president since WWII” is currently plagued by lost emails at the IRS, House Republicans’ accusations of executive overreach, and a sluggish economy, among other things. Previous presidents are free from current events. Bush’s approval is no longer burdened by the Iraq War, which helped lower his approval to 25% at one point. Harry Truman’s faults in office have evidently been forgiven. He tops the list as the least-worst president despite having the lowest recorded job approval in Gallup history (22%). Reagan’s legacy is no longer burdened by the early-1980s recession, which dragged his approval into the mid-30s. Nixon’s memory has evidently escaped Watergate. He fairs better than Obama and Bush II despite leaving office with only 24% approval. Clinton’s memory has certainly escaped his improprieties in the Oval Office.

It’s unsurprising that the two times this question has been asked (in 2014 and 2006) the sitting president has been recorded as “the worst president.” This isn’t to say it will always be the case. However, our memory of previous presidents fairs much better than their actual job approval during their presidencies. The events dragging down their job approval are long over.

Ultimately, this question wasn’t necessary and it is a prime example of when not to trust the marginals. Simple job approval/disapproval ratings are far more accurate at capturing presidential disapproval. And further, they are far less misleading.

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Gallup asked a simple job approval/disapproval question...and didn't cite specific issues which might affect the response...therefore, their poll is far less misleading.


Link: https://gai.georgetown.edu/whos-the-worst-president-evaluating-the-quinnipiac-poll/

Thread Level: 3

It's wrong because I like my source better.

Author: jakers (13925 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 2:29 pm on Jan 30, 2025
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Thread Level: 4

Did you find anything wrong with the critique of Qinnipiac?

Author: TyroneIrish (20682 Posts - Joined: Oct 8, 2020)

Posted at 3:41 pm on Jan 30, 2025
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Thread Level: 5

I didn't read it. They're reputable. They just didn't fit your narrative.

Author: jakers (13925 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 4:24 pm on Jan 30, 2025
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Thread Level: 6

The critique was from a reputable source...one that just might bend your narrative...you need to

Author: TyroneIrish (20682 Posts - Joined: Oct 8, 2020)

Posted at 9:54 pm on Jan 30, 2025
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read it to find out. Being willfully ignorant isn't a good debate strategy, Jake.

Thread Level: 7

So you like your reputable source and the other is wrong. Got it.

Author: jakers (13925 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 9:34 am on Jan 31, 2025
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Thread Level: 4

Remember when he was touting that Iowa poll?

Author: iairishcheeks (27356 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 3:32 pm on Jan 30, 2025
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Thread Level: 5

I really don’t think he’s an ND grad.

Author: Hensou (8178 Posts - Joined: Dec 21, 2022)

Posted at 4:56 pm on Jan 30, 2025
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I have never met ANY ND grad so blindly zealous and
blissfully unaware of his lack of credibility.


Thread Level: 6

Of course he's not a grad.

Author: jakers (13925 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 5:55 pm on Jan 30, 2025
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Thread Level: 6

What if he was the weird priest in the shadows no one ever talked to?

Author: iairishcheeks (27356 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 5:42 pm on Jan 30, 2025
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Thread Level: 6

Look in the Mirror, Ara ;-)...deceit is not a hallmark of credibility.

Author: TyroneIrish (20682 Posts - Joined: Oct 8, 2020)

Posted at 5:03 pm on Jan 30, 2025
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Thread Level: 4

Quinn Polls are generally reputable.

Author: Hensou (8178 Posts - Joined: Dec 21, 2022)

Posted at 2:51 pm on Jan 30, 2025
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Link: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/quinnipiac-poll-bias-and-credibility/

Thread Level: 5

I saw that prior to posting...but then saw the critique...which Gallup does not share...in fact,

Author: TyroneIrish (20682 Posts - Joined: Oct 8, 2020)

Posted at 3:59 pm on Jan 30, 2025
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they have been consistent in their "Job Approval/Disapproval" polling since 1953, so their results have high credibility on that measure.

Step back for a moment and consider his nominations for cabinet positions...especially Matt Gaetz for AG...and his chaotic 'Walk Backs' from Executive Orders...as well as involving Elon Musk...with all his conflicts of interest...in governmental decisions. Right Minded Citizens have reason not to approve of Trump's actions starting out.


Link: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/gallup/

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