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Granted, my assumption is that stalemate continues.

Astounding that the Russian army is so inept.

Consequently, Ukraine must have a security clause in any future agreement that is strong enough to dissuade Putin from repeating his deceit...NATO membership would meet that need. Also, Ukraine knows what life would be like under Putin if they concede without such security...

As for Putin launching a Nuclear First Strike on Ukraine, at the very least, Russia would be cut off from the rest of the world, and IMO Putin would be replaced from within.

We can both agree Putin is evil, and I don't think he cares about the consequences of launching nukes. And that's the problem.

So like it or not, this is now largely in Trump's hands.

Ukraine's membership and those countries are going to increase military aid to them. Since all Ukrainians know that Putin won't stop attacking until he gets what he wants, and that a 'Pogrom' would follow, they have no choice but to resist, and having NATO membership is what would protect them from any further attacks. Again, Russia is suffering...a LOT right now, physically and economically...plus, it is no match for a healthy and committed EU/NATO along with Ukraine. If Ukraine maintains its rightful insistence on future security, they can stop Putin.

As for Putin actually launching a first strike nuclear attack...that's the end of him and he knows it...he's bluffing.

hand, Putin would definitely use nukes - he is not above doing it, and has threatened it. He's a proven killer.

Trump Adm ignored the Zelenskyy/EU insults and told UK/France that they are still open to peace (there is more at stake here than a nasty camo clad dictator).
Zelesnkyy said that he is still willing to sign the mineral rights deal - but this is the 4th time that he has said this, and he failed to follow through on the previous three times.
- the primary advantage of which is creating specific US assets that Russia would be very hesitant to impact with further invasion (much like invading one of our oil important partners such as in the middle east). There is also the economic advantage to both sides. The US would like to at least recoup something for the many billions sent to Ukraine though Ukraine itself is NOT a rare earth mineral rich country though they do have Lithium which has some value. Ukraine could use the infrastructure and economic gain to help rebuild if there is peace.

Unfortunately, even after a meeting with the UK and France this weekend, Zelenskyy refuses to agree to a cease fire without "security assurances" which he has specifically said time and again is membership in NATO. This is not going to happen - nobody wants that since it would obligate direct involvement in war of the NATO countries which would lead to WWIII.
Zelenskyy knows this, and thus, Zelenskyy doesn't want peace. He also will not allow elections to let the Ukrainian people have a say as long as he is at war. He has disbanded the 11 opposing political parties, and taken over the media in his country. Given the amount of times that he has talked out of both sides of his mouth, it is reasonable to be concerned that Zelenskyy personally benefits by having the war continue.
The Euros have FINALLY seriously(?) offered to contribute more to the war effort (they've done this before and then not carried through also) - but it would still require the US to be the primary money and arms donor. They know that Zelensky doesn't want a cease fire or peace, and they are now worried about having to handle the problem themselves.

Literally NOTHING will happen with Zelenskyy or the EU until they are certain that the US won't cave. That is the great advantage of having Trump.

The EU hates Trump because they are liberal and moving away from democracy, they have come to expect the US to always pay their tabs, and Trump has demanded reciprocal tariffs for fairness (the EU is enjoying a 300B/yr trade advantage because of their unfair tariffs).
They have also reneged on paying their proper dues for decades in NATO (Trump addressed this in his first term, but they still haven't fully complied. Further, they continue to put the burden of military protection costs onto the US instead of bulking up their own militaries. And they aslo did not contribute anywhere near what they should have in the Ukraine war effort.
But they also know that Trump is good for his word, and he has told them their days of treating the US like crap are over - BidenHandlers are gone.

The other factor going on is the decades long warning of the US to the EU (through four US Administrations from both parties) that the US is going to be scaling back their European presence and that they would have to take over soon. They have done nothing of significance to prepare. A couple of years ago, Biden stationed an additional 20k US troops above normal levels in Europe after Putin.
invaded Ukraine. The EU is terrified that Trump is going to pull those troops back now.....yet they still spit in the US's face this past week with Zelenskyy.
Trump should remove those troops now - it is literally the only thing that will force the EU finally to stop mooching and do their part to defend themselves.
Removing further troops down the road will continue as it has for the past decades, and i am sure that when the EU finally acts here to build up better defense, they will kick the US out - because they mostly ungrateful bastards at heart, and they no longer share the same ideas of a free society (they now inhibit free speech, some inhibit free religion, and they recently even as an organization blocked the free election results in Romania.

The war cannot continue. It will be unending. We will be out of this one way or another soon. The right man is in the office to do the job finally.

If Ukraine invades Russia and starts rolling towards Moscow? Maybe. I guess I don't see that happening, though.

I remember being ticked that Biden didn't push him to negotiate peace when they could have gotten their land back and Putin was willing to deal.
I suppose that is a different issue.
You are probably right that Ukrainian reclamation might not trigger a nuclear response, but with Putin, it is at least a risk.

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