Markets can bounce back. The dollar can rebound. Consumer confidence can return.
But he has to declare victory and stop these stupid policies now. This week.
If he does that, we’ll be OK.
If not - and if the bond market starts heaving - we are looking at a real bad stretch.
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Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2025/04/22/trump-tariffs-imf-global-economy/
Answer without lying.
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But a lot of people will wish there was a better candidate.
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Everyone agrees that US deficit and debt needs to be addressed.
Reasonable minds disagree on how to best accomplish that objective.
No reasonable mind believes that Trump's shenanigans over his first 100 days are helpful. Quite the contrary.
Global loss of confidence in US financial markets and US economy does not tame the "elephant in the room."
The top 10% own 93% of stocks. 38% of Americans don't one any stocks at all. The nearly singular focus on the stock market is a part of the problem.
When it crashes, people think twice before buying things. Or expanding their business.
It is a leading indicator. When it crashes, a recession follows.
It is not too late to reverse this.
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It's approaching critical mass upon which no amount of austerity or tax increases will save us, we will have to take drastic measures.
....predicting catastrophe for 30+ years now.
We need to get it under control. The first step is to balance the budget.
There are no magic shortcuts. Cut spending, raise taxes.
By the day we are losing the ability to solve the problem.
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Amazingly, there are quite a few in even worse shape than us on an annual and total basis relative to their G.D.P. That is scary.
We have a buy target of 33.5k, so expect that’s around bottom and where Powell cuts rates.
Problem is the squelched demand is artificial and the second either tariffs are lifted or rates get cut the market will go through the roof. Powell knows that.
But, as you point out, the debt is the driver.
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