The Atlanta Fed currently projects 4.6% GDP growth in 2Q of 2025,
which is way above the consensus Wall Street estimates.
The first quarter GDP was affected by the reduction in government spending. It seems that increases in personal consumption and business investment are going to drive second quarter GDP significantly higher.
If the Atlanta Fed is even close to being right here, then Donald Trump, Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick will have been proven right, and the United States will be the envy of the world.
Link: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Replies to: The Atlanta Fed currently projects 4.6% GDP growth in 2Q of 2025,
Perhaps one image will save a thousand posts...
(no message)
That's a pretty stupid way to visualize that data.
It makes me think DEI has made it's way into the online presence of the Philly Fed.
Can you cite any errors?
(no message)
Of course not, that would require critical thought which we all know MAGA is incapable
(no message)
Yes, an error in judgement on the visualization.
I thought I already said that.
So , Cole’s citation was in the +2 sigma range while the mean was
Just around 1.0 - 1.5% GDP growth…just as I said…he “Cherry Picked” the most favorable estimate.
Let’s hope so. Maybe they’ll be right.
You’ll be around to admit their error if they are not, right?
We'll have to wait and see...but based on other estimates...
...from BEA...
----------------------
In the first quarter of 2025, the US GDP decreased at an annual rate of 0.2%. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia surveyed professional forecasters in May, who estimated a median growth forecast of 1.4% for 2025. Some economists believe the US GDP is shrinking at a rate of 0.2% annually in the first quarter of 2025.
----------------------
Read my post dummy. I said Q1GDP contracted because Trump reduced government spending.
Q1 GDP decreasing was not a surprise. The question that remains is whether purported healthier private sector investment and consumption spending drive ann increase to Q2 GDP numbers.
The Atlanta Fed prediction model is generally more reliable later in the quarter than it is early in the quarter and we are now into June. Let’s see.
Gosh, you know what maybe Mark should suspend me for another month because I can’t believe I’m even bothering to talk to you.
It’s worthless, the dude still thinks Biden is coherent
(no message)
Is the Philadelphia Fed not credible?
(no message)
There’s obviously more than one forecast…next time don’t just Cherry Pick.
(no message)
Oh boy....
(no message)
From the Philadelphia Fed (attached)...
------------------
Forecasters Predict Lower Growth and Employment in 2025
The outlook for the U.S. economy looks dimmer now than it did three months ago, according to 36 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The forecasters predict the economy will grow at an annual rate of 1.5 percent this quarter, down from the prediction of 2.1 percent in the last survey. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to increase 1.4 percent in 2025, down 1.0 percentage point from the estimate in the survey of three months ago.
An upward revision to the path for the unemployment rate accompanies the outlook for growth. The forecasters predict the unemployment rate will increase from 4.2 percent this quarter to 4.5 percent in the first quarter of 2026. In the previous survey, the unemployment rate was forecast to rise from 4.2 percent to 4.3 percent over the same period. On an annual-average basis, the forecasters expect the unemployment rate to average 4.3 percent in 2025, marking a slight upward revision from the previous estimate of 4.2 percent. The forecasters also predict higher unemployment rates over the next three years, compared with those in the previous survey.
------------------
As I said...there are multiple forecasts that differ from Cole's singular estimate...
Link: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q2-2025
Irony
(no message)
The BEA uses multiple sources for its reports on GDP...check it out...
...about BEA Methodology...
-------------------
The BEA uses a variety of data sources, including those from government agencies, other BEA accounts, and private companies, to produce a GDP forecast. These sources include monthly or quarterly data, trend-based data, and indicators. The most common sources are "monthly or quarterly data" and "monthly and trend-based data," which together account for about 75% of the data used for advance estimates, according to a BEA paper.
-------------------
Link: https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies
You telling people not to cherry pick is precious
(no message)
The people that sell yachts must be extra excited about this.
(no message)
Trump's TACO crew are excited for any news that looks promising, but full context from the page
GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model.
Are you playing Tyrone this week?
(no message)
Wrong poster Checkers. Cole is playing the role you attribute to Ty.
(no message)