I am going to apply the NedintheHill Rule and wait 24 -48hrs for info to trickle in.
I want to know:
1) Was it successful?
May take a lot longer to find out, but we should have a much clearer idea. The world is a far safer place Iran no longer has a nuclear weapons development program.
2) What are the limits of escalation if Iran strikes back?
It is encouraging to hear that WH has specifically mentioned that they do not envision boots on the ground. I want to hear more. I want no more involvement than what Israel couldn't do themselves to rid Iran of it's nuclear program. If they attack us, strong targeted response, but no more. We suck at regime change - and the fill in of a power vacuum in the Muslim world does not usually go well.
3) Did our enemy China transport out portions of Iran's nuclear program on those transport planes for preservation?
4) I read an article that Iran had sent out a warning for all officials to delete Whats App (or perhaps different communication app?). Was this how the Israeli's targeted their leadership, and if so, could they not also have targeted sleeper cells within the US before the warning went out?
We've had 4 years of an open border - this is our biggest risk.
Partisans here are all known to each other.....it is easy to predict the opinion of virtually every poster here as well as the types of articles and sources that they will link.
In the meantime, those of you obsessed with stabbing at your Great Orange Whale - try to hold short of wishing to see your own country hurt for electing the object of your hateful obsession.
Replies to: I am going to apply the NedintheHill Rule and wait 24 -48hrs for info to trickle in.
Regarding to 1), 2 entries to underground at Fordow were damaged via satellite. GBU-57 were launched
In a group of 3 each time, meaning they aimed at maximum coverage instead maximum penetration. It's possible but unlikely Fordow has a 3rd tunnel to underground. But enriched uranium and expensive equipments also were transferred before attacking, thanks to notice in advance by U.S.. Satellite proves the transfer. Also no immediate signs of radioactive contamination around the location. So, plus damage of facilities on the ground, Fordow can no longer be used as nuclear facility. In this sense Trump is right. Iran nuclear facilities were destroyed. Meanwhile Iran keeps their enriched uranium.
All are concerned that China flew it out. Our greatest enemy.
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This is ridiculous claim by neocon. If enriched uranium is so easy to transfer from Iran to China,
It's also easy to transfer from China to Iran. Why doesn't China transfer some to Iran to raise their 60% level of uranium to 90% at which nuke can be made?
Not really sure it was uranium. And I'm not sure what they did. It's why I listed it as something
that I want to know more about. Your thought is not novel, but there are potential answers. There are potentially other valuable assets as well (or even people such as critical scientists).
Well thought out reasoning
One of the best posts I’ve seen on here in a long time.
I think Trump is threading the needle trying to appease Israel
Without getting us sucked into a war, all while hoping to get some kind of a deal that averts escalation without neutering Iran.
So, success from that perspective is a tall order but probably more realistic than all out surrender, regime change or the hope of an Iranian commitment to never attempt to enrich uranium.
FYI, the Iranian parliament just voted to close the Straits of Hormuz
Luckily they have no power - it’s up to the Ayatollah.
If Iran does that, then the US will certainly conduct a major missile-suppression campaign.
But as we saw with the Houthis, such things are difficult. The Iranians are not as battle-hardened as their proxies…but still, it would be a major undertaking.
That seems like a gamble since it may grab more heat on them
But they may be willing to risk that if either they just don’t give a F (doubtful) or they are trying to generate maximum pressure and leverage for a negotiated settlement.
I think they’ll first double down on Israeli bombing and if that doesn’t yield the desired outcome, then go after Hormuz.
How would Iran shut down the strait of Hormuz? Their navy is weak…
We will or already have 2 carrier battle groups in the region.
True, they can’t shut it down. But they can rain missiles down on any ship going through…
…Houthi-style.
We would certainly respond.
Hopefully cooler heads prevail in Tehran. They have to respond…but hopefully it will be measured, not escalatory.
But they have their hot heads and hawks too.
The Houthis were shut down the moment we actually started trying in earnest.
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Link: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/joe-bidens-failed-strategy-against-houthi-threat-red-sea-211607
The Houthis have never been “shut down.” We declared victory and stopped.
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The made a truce. So here you're saying that we shouldn't have negotiated with terrorists. Hmm.
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Interesting, nice post
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Why bother? We all know you will support it 100%.
Sure, we have jammed our fist back into the Mid East hornets’ nest.
But…MAGA!
The last time you were this fired up was when he Trump ordered the killing of
Soleimani. Nothing happened then but tough talk from Iran. Let’s see how this plays out but for now, no Americans were injured, no boots on the ground and there are 3 new sites in Iran that would be perfect for a Buc-ees.
“ Nothing happened then but tough talk from Iran.” That and a few missile barrages…
…which, miraculously, killed no US service personnel. Lots of traumatic brain injury, but no KIA - or we would have had this war years ago.
The only way to permanently stop that program is with a deal. Which now we can’t do.
So expect this kind of shit every few years in perpetuity.
They knew if they hit the bases directly, Iran would be a parking lot. They had to look
Tough by firing on the bases. With the technology today, you don’t miss every single shot on targets, unless it’s done on purpose. The guy in the WH is a wildcard and not past Presidents. Let’s see what the next move is from the Iranians.
They hit the bases directly. You just make up shit, all the time.
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Right, 20+ missiles were launched and no one was killed. It was tough guy
Posturing at best. Trump is treating these people the way they act, like savages. I wouldn’t expect the strait to be closed for long. What are they going to do, shout insults at the Navy. Maybe fling a cow or fart in their general direction like in The Holy Grail.
For some reason, you’re awfully bothered by anything that happens to Iran. Very weird.
After promising "fire and fury",Iran launched no death response & claimed "we don't want escalation"
After inflicting no casualties, Iran did not follow up with further attacks for Soleimani's death (if they wanted to inflict fire & fury and it was just good luck that prevented death for the US, Iran most certainly would have followed up with more attacks.
To suggest that Iran wasn't pulling their punches in light of their actions and statement is absurd...once again. Refresh your memory and reconsider. There was nothing "miraculous" about this.
Link: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-base-iraq-comes-under-attack-missiles-iran-claims-n1112171
Not if it exceeds the parameters I mentioned. Nuclear Iran is one of the great messes left to Trump
- if he was successful at eliminating their capabilities without doing more than surgical strikes that no one else could accomplish, I am very satisfied. If he gets into attempting regime change or boots on the ground, I am not.
- I was extremely pleased to see how the operation was carried out. Clearly trump deferred to professional military men who know their jobs well. He also did a masterful job at misdirection (as libs mocked "TACO Trump" for his supposed 2 weeks pause for a decision). Once Iran walked away from the table for good, Trump made his decision quickly and decisively. This not only increased the chance for success, but it made it much safer for the pilots who were never even fired at once. And compared to the constant stream of leaks from the Deep Staters in his first term, there were NO LEAKS from anyone. Airtight as it should be. Trump proved a lot here that he is capable of restraint, even when being goaded by his haters.
This must all be very scary to someone whose FP perspective is built on the foundation of appeasement. Add to that your complete mistrust and pathologic hatred of the president, and I realize that this is hard to watch. But sometimes hard decisions and actions are required for an overall better result.
If Trump fails me, I will say so. I sometimes defend him here simply because he is so irrationally attacked 24/7/365.
But at the end of the day, I trust him to handle this next massive challenge.
Open borders are fixed. Illegal immigrants - realistically just hoping to remove the criminal element really - in progress. Nuclear Iran - in progress. DEI - being dismantled. Deficit (yeesh! but given Dem court resistance, I am just hoping for better, but fail on this so far).
Amazingly though, Trump is just entering the 5th month of his 48 month term. So he is actually moving incredibly fast.
Replace “left to” with “created by,” and you have it right
One of the big failures of the Biden team was their failure to restart the JCPOA. But the Iranians felt they couldn’t trust the Americans to keep their word for some reason.
Sure, Iran is just a bunch of honest Joe's who were burned by being lied to by the US....
Iran was funding terrorism, they took American hostages, they put a "hit" contract out on the POTUS and tried at least once to assassinate him, ....
(and the one you continue to overlook) ....they lied at the start of JCPOA and were hiding parts of their nuclear development program JUST AS WE TOLD YOU THAT THEY WOULD.
You think Iran decided they couldn't trust us when instead, they just understood that the new leadership wasn't as gullible.
We told you Iran would cheat and they did.
We told you that we would end this one sided appeasement program without congressional support, so don't do it. But you did it anyways.
Peace through strength (strength comes first). This is not a pithy bromide. it is a truth when dealing with terrorists.
Iran has been offered multiple chances to avoid conflict if they would simply stop funding terrorism and stop seeking nuclear weapons. They wouldn't do it.
These were the people that you were offering appeasement while at the same time showing erratic and, at best, lukewarm support to Israel under BidenHandlers.
Your party is full of "From the river to the see" people, they fly Palestinian flags, they support Hamas, and you are feeling sympathy now for Iran that they "couldn't trust us".
Iran would use their nukes against us and they would black mail Israel and us the moment that they had the ability. They have said so. That is the only promise that can be believed from them.
I’m not reading that shit. You can’t hide a nuclear weapons program…
…when there are 200 IAEA inspectors in your country. Which the JCPOA provided.
I know more about this than you do by several orders of magnitude. But since you refuse to learn, there is no point in teaching.
200 or 2000 - it isn't adequate when they don't know about a secret site.
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“Secret sites” draw a lot of power. Hundreds of megawatts. And the IAEA monitors the grid.
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The IAEA has true experts in all phases of Nuclear Weapons development...Baron is an OB/GYN who
cites the Babylon Bee as backup to his musings... His'MD Checking Account' went bankrupt years ago.
This is your answer.
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Link: https://centerforsecuritypolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Iran_JCPOA_paper_final-1.pdf
Here's an excerpt from the Wiki Summary of the CSP linked below...
Writing in Religion Dispatches, Sarah Posner described the organization as "a far-right think tank whose president, Frank Gaffney, was banned from the CPAC [Conservative Political Action Conference] ... because its organizers believed him to be a 'crazy bigot'".[47]
Based on Baron's choice for a reference...and BVZ's own posts...he too could be banned from CPAC attendance ;-).
The "Center for Security Policy" is a FAR RIGHT Think Tank in D.C....The IAEA is made up of Nuclear
Weapons experts from multiple countries who stated, with inspectors on the ground, that Iran was in compliance with the terms of the JCPOA.
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Security_Policy
Great Orange Whale. Well done.
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