traders know ahead of time what he’s going to do and say?

BBC reports -

Throughout US President Donald Trump's second term in office, traders have been betting millions of dollars just before he makes major announcements.

The BBC has examined trade volume data on several financial markets and matched them to some of the president's most significant market-moving statements.

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It found a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public.

Some analysts say it bears the hallmarks of illegal insider trading, whereby bets are made by people based on information that is not available to the general public.

Others say the picture is more complicated and that some traders have become more adept at anticipating the president's interventions.

Here are five of the most significant examples.

9 March 2026: 'The war is very complete, pretty much'

Some of the biggest movements have been in oil trades on the futures market.

Nine days into the US-Israel war with Iran, Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that the conflict was "very complete, pretty much".

A bar chart and a line chart titled "Oil trading volumes spike shortly before CBS interview sends price tumbling”, showing trading volumes, and the price per barrel, for Brent crude oil futures on the evening of Monday 9 March 2026. The bar chart of trading volumes shows Brent futures contracts were trading at a volume of 884, at 18:00 GMT (each contract represents 1,000 barrels of oil). That spiked to 4,141 at 18:28, fell again, and then rose sharply again shortly after 19:16, when an interview on CBS was made public, in which Trump indicated the Iran war could be near an end. The line chart of prices shows Brent futures were trading at a little under $100 a barrel at 18:00, but then dropped sharply after Trump’s interview was made public, hitting $85 by 19:39, before recovering slightly to $90 by 20:00. The source is Bloomberg.
[BBC]
18:29 GMT: Oil bets surge
19:16 GMT: Trump says war is nearly complete
19:17 GMT: Oil drops by 25%

The first time the public would have known about the interview was at 15:16 Eastern Time (19:16 GMT) when the reporter posted about it on X.

Oil traders reacted to this news that the conflict could end much sooner than expected by selling oil, with the price plunging by around 25%.

However, market data shows a huge surge of bets were placed on the price of oil falling at 18:29 GMT - a full 47 minutes before the reporter's post.

The traders who placed those bets will have made millions of dollars from the movement in oil prices.

23 March 2026: 'Complete and total resolution to hostilities'

On 23 March, just two days after threatening to "obliterate" Iran's power plants, Trump posted on Truth Social that Washington had held "VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS" with Tehran over a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities.

It was a major surprise to diplomatic observers and to traders.

A bar chart and a line chart titled " Oil trades jump again before a Trump post on Iran moves oil prices”, showing trading volumes, and the price per barrel, for Brent crude oil futures on the morning of Monday 23 March 2026. The bar chart of trading volumes shows Brent futures contracts were trading at a volume of 41, at 10:30 GMT (each contract represents 1,000 barrels of oil). That stayed in double figures or the low hundreds until 10:49, when it jumped to 1,619. It fell back, and then jumped much higher to a peak of 8,205 at 11:06, shortly after Trump posted about Iran. It then gradually fell back lower. The line chart of prices shows Brent futures were trading at a little under $113 a barrel at 10:30, but then dropped sharply after Trump’s interview was made public, hitting $97 by 11:08, before recovering slightly to $104 by 11:30. The source is Bloomberg.
[BBC]
10:48-10:50 GMT: Oil bets surge
11:04 GMT: Trump posts about "total resolution" to hostilities
11:05 GMT: Oil drops by 11%

Immediately, stocks rose and the US benchmark price of oil - which had been climbing - fell sharply.

As the BBC reported at the time, 14 minutes before the president's post there were an unusually high number of bets on the US oil price.


Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cge0grppe3po?xtor=AL-72-%5Bpartner%5D-%5Byahoo.north.america%5D-%5Bheadline%5D-%5Bnews%5D-%5Bbizdev%5D-%5Bisapi%5D

Forethought" by Donald J. Trump...totally predictable...especially after having already extended SEC Rule 13f-2 just weeks after taking office in 2025.

Link: https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/sec-extends-compliance-date-for-short-sale-reporting-rule-to-2028"

question. Knowing his talent for playing paper tiger it’s obvious what he will do and say which makes him a mark on the world stage. According to the Wall Street Journal, he was kept out of the decision making process after starting the war with Iran because of his predictable penchant for making the wrong or inappropriate choices.

It means "premeditated" and usually is reserved for the mens rea element of a murder charge.

Insider trading by definition requires an intent element ("knowingly"), but the phrase "malice aforethought" (or however it's bastardized in popular speak) isn't the right phrase.

sudden on/off Tariff announcements...

The 2012 STOCK Act attempted to address this, but has been a failure. New legislation is needed, I'm in favor of Hawley's bill.

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...but then they rescinded the ban about 3 months later, and the media was complicit, allowing them to do it without calling any attention to what they had done. Voters moved on to whatever the daily outrage was that the media outlets were peddling at that time.

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Link: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/04/trump-sec-financial-crimes-enforcement-drop-wall-street/

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