I'm on record as saying 48 teams is too many to begin with, but if FIFA is going to stick with 48 they need to figure out what their goal is. Is it to have the best 48 teams or to distribute the 48 teams equally around the world?
Based on the results of the Group stage (not that we needed this as evidence but anyway) it's clear FIFA has gone for inclusion not merit.
10 of the 12 Groups were won by European (7) and South American (3) teams. The other 2 by CONCACAF (US and Mexico). Not one African, Asian or Oceania team topped a Group. Looking at the success rate of each region in terms of advancing to the knockout stage:
Africa: 9 of 10 (90%)
South America: 5 of 6 (83%)
Europe: 13 of 16 (81%)
North/Central America: 3 of 6 (50%)
Asia: 2 of 9 (22%)
Oceania: 0 of 1 (0%)
I'm actually impressed with the African teams' performances this year. They are showing real progress but to be fair 4 of their teams advanced through the 3rd place tiebreakers (and because the 4th place teams in their groups were from crappy Asia and Concacaf) so it's not like they dominated their groups.
The real injustices are too many teams from Asia, North/Central America and Oceania. Nine teams from Asia is a joke (5 of them finished last in their group). Six teams from Concacaf is too much as well (3 finished last in their group). And Oceania? Really? New Zealand is garbage. They were the lowest ranked team in the tourney.
Cut Asia and Concacaf to 5 teams and tell Oceania to compete for one of Asia's spots. That frees up 6 spots for more deserving regions. Give 4 to Europe (would mean Italy, Denmark, Poland and Ukraine added), 1 to South America (Peru or Chile added) and 1 to Africa (Nigeria). Now you've got a more representative best on best event. Not the participation ribbons and orange slices group stage we saw this year.
It won't happen, but it should happen.
When a team with a losing record can advance to the Tourney, something is wrong.
CFP never tried to get the top 12 teams.
Either go for merit, or be clear and transparent that some teams are "DEI" participants.
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