Could the shutdown have inadvertently lead to the Delta variant?
I am wondering this because natural Covid immunity is better overall at keeping you from getting Covid again, including the Delta variant.
Considering that the original strain was basically harmless per the data to anyone under 40, and under 50 per the data if you weren't overweight or had co-morbidities you were probably ok as well, and that being the majority of the working population, should we not have let all these people continue to work, quarantine the elderly who were susceptible to the virus, and built up immunity that way, rather than waiting on a vaccine?
Was the shutdown responsible for allowing the disease to hang around for so long? We did slow the spread, but considering that (per the WHO) there was a possibility of ten times as many cases as what was reported because of asymptomatic persons, is it not possible we could have survived a surge of the Alpha form and never given the disease a chance to mutate into the Delta variant?
I have not researched this, and I'm merely asking for opinions in a hindsight is 20/20 type of a question. Trying to start less of a left vs right argument and more of a theoretical what could have been better type of argument.
Replies to: Could the shutdown have inadvertently lead to the Delta variant?
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Not only have you "...not researched this...", but you haven't even thought it through ;-)...
how on earth do you imagine you could "quarantine" 52 million Americans 65 years of age and older...not to mention all those who are "immuno-compromised" in every age group under that?
Unbelievable...but thanks for giving us a glimpse into your 'persona'.
Self imposed quarantine is what we ask all the time
from those who've been exposed, that's what I'm referring to, it was not meant to imply that I'd have the government put everyone in concentration camps.
If you don't believe that was possible then logically you should have been against the shut down, shouldn't you?
Ok...I'll ask it again...exactly how do you ensure that all those millions of Americans are kept out
of harm's way?...be specific...not just some 'fanciful notion'.
Remember that the vast majority of those 52 million seniors and untold millions of immuno-compromised folks are out there in our communities living and even WORKING among the others you don't think can get sick and die...how do you make this happen?
Actually, I'm just anticipating you try to squirm your way out of this...there is no way you can make it happen...but you brought it on yourself, so have at it.
I was specific, I have no reason to squirm
As I stated, which you ignored, the lockdown asked 330 million plus Americans to do exactly what I'm suggesting those 52 million seniors do, but you seem to believe is impossible. If those 52 million cannot do the lockdown effectively, then what was the point of asking 330 million to do so?
The remainder of the immune compromised could shift to telework and online school in the same manner that the majority of the population was able to.
I really don't understand how you latched into this a your big gotcha point, this is the easy part to understand.
Just to make sure we're envisioning the same scenario...are you saying that all of those under 65,
and not immuno-compromised are free to conduct 'normal lives' with no restrictions...i.e. no masks, no social distancing...free travel?...and all of those in the vulnerable group are going to voluntarily shut themselves off from the outside world?
More to follow, once you respond.
Hey Ty, hope your still reading
This is a hypothetical situation.
When the lockdown happened, everyone stayed home, masked while in public, and socially distanced. So let's go with that, but you can go to work, and you limit people in restaurants like you did during the reopening. Basically, life doesn't stop, just slows down some.
You make sure to be smart about visiting the elderly and compromised.
Generally just a nice balance between complete shut down and the wild west, it could lean one way or the other, but I'm hoping you are getting the idea now.
"This is a hypothetical situation"...that has "not been researched"; consider this fantasy all yours
However, should you actually do some hard thinking on this and maybe even some research that backs up a novel plan of action that scientists agree would achieve lower COVID infections/hospitalizations and deaths, while simultaneously maintaining GDP growth...I'd love to hear about it...Good Luck!
Spread of Delta variant is a direct result of worldwide vaccination.The genetic diversity of covid-
has been totally destroyed by vaccines (yes, this also includes the fact Alpha variant was taken out by vaccines). If you look at pre-vaccine covid, it was pretty diversified worldwide. Yes, some countries may have one dominated variant, but other countries had other dominant variants. Today it's Delta everywhere.
Shutdown is stupid for different reasons.
Are you talking about COVID or are you talking about coronaviruses?
I watched a doc on netflix that was talking about there being tons and tons of different coronaviruses out there. I seriously doubt that a vaccine would destroy the genetic diversity of coronaviruses that only infect bats for example.
I agree that the shutdown was stupid for other reasons, and you are free to list them here.
I meant COVID-19, aka SARS-CoV-2. The more you vaccinate, leading to reduce mutation frequency of
SAS-CoV-2, the more genetically uniform SARS-CoV-2 become... until remaining strains are the ones that the vaccines can’t kill, the vaccine-resistant strains.
Will talk about shutdown next time.
We may find it to be in its intentional design.
Though variants do occur without design, the mutation rate and virulence rate may yet to be fully appreciated. This was a gain of function virus product. Let’s hope not.
Always with the cockamamie conspiracy.
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This could go on for a whole page so i'll stop & let you get back to your lecture on epidemiology
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Someone needs a timeout...
Stop and take a look at yourself...just relax for a little while...no one is asking you to convert to liberalism, but you're taking on a 'paranoid' persona with zero evidence of objectivity when it comes to that subject area.
...like Russia, Russia, Russia being a fake?
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...like that the FBI/CIA was spying on the President of the United States?
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...like that Fauci is politically motivated and will say anything to keep his job?
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...like that Joe was advised that Taliban was surging & he should hold off on withdrawal?
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...like that Obamacare will end up driving helathcare costs far higher?
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...like that AOC is driving the Dem party platform?
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...like the conspiracy that the 3.5T Dem spending bill doesn't have socialist programs?
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Wow, what drivel. Pure drivel.
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Shouldn't be civil to fanatics like you. But let me do once for the sake of the creator of thread
No. It started in India. Anything else?
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I guess I should have phrased the question better.
I meant more our issues in dealing with it, not that us shutting down made the Delta variant happen or come to be. If the majority of the population had already been infected with the original and been able to not be infected with the Delta variant then it would not be an issue here in the US.
I really am just asking if we had the correct response, and posing a what if situation. If you don't feel like being more verbose that's no problem, I know you take a lot of shit on here, but I do tend to read your posts because you are informed in a lot of areas, even if I sometimes disagree with you.
I believe in being able to have civil discourse.
In order to reach the kind of herd immunity that would have been necessary to keep out Delta....
....we would need 80-85% of the population to have immunity. We could have (theoretically) reached that with vaccines.
Without them, that would have meant that we would have needed to have about 280 million people get the virus while we were shut down (of whom 2.8 million would have died, and maybe 20 million would have been hospitalized).
So, the answer to your question is no. The shut-down saved lives and had no effect on Delta.
I am trying to find the numbers for population percentages
Unfortunately they group them oddly and I don't have time to read through the material they've been pulled from.
What I was able to find showed that 64 and under makes up roughly 83% of the population.
Per the information in Curly's link below, those 83% should have been fine to keep working and get infected and transmit it all around, with a significantly high survival rate. I do agree that there would have been deaths, I'm not sure it would have been the 2.8 million you say though. I think you are basing that on the 1% ish mortality rate, but even the WHO said that the case numbers could be completely wrong because of asymptomatic people, so we really don't have a good idea of what the mortality rate would have been.
I can see why you think we saved a lot of people though with the shutdown. I was worried about the hospitals being overtaxed should this have spiked significantly at the onset, and an overtaxed healthcare system could have led to increased amounts of death due to lack of care.
Out of curiosity, many people also had their lives ruined by the shutdown due to losing their business or lack of income. How do you calculate that into how effective the shut down was?
"we would have needed to have about 280 million people get the virus while we were shut down"
I suppose I should have said, I don't disagree with your central point... shutdowns were absolutely the right choice at the time.
But my point is about how the novel coronavirus, as it turns out isn't necessarily that novel from an immunity standpoint.
You aren't factoring in pre-existing immunity.
But this is more like the common cold or the flu than viruses like polio. Herd immunity was unlikely to ever be likely to occur given the mutation nature of coronaviruses.
Link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/08/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-covid/
What do you mean? Of course I am.
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Apologies, see my response above.
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Singapore reached 80%- 85% vaccination. They didn't keep out Delta, but saw highest infection.
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Yet Clowns like you ignore natural immunity.
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