Multiple analysts have put a reasonable probability that the Fed will actually reduce the Fed Funds rate this year. The rate is already low, and lowering it from here is essentially more QE - an extraordinary monetary policy tool to help an ailing economy.
Also - the 10 year and 30 year inverted. For reasons unknown to me, the Bloomberg folks tell me this is a predictor of a recession.
I don't see problems in the day to day numbers, but there it is.
[edit - re: Nigel's point to remove LIBOR]
Fed doesn't set LIBOR. But you are correct in that, it was only 6 months ago that consensus opinion was that the Fed would raise at least 3 times in 2019. Now, those that know are modeling a slightly better than even chance that their next move will be to cut.
Could be ominous, or not.
Libor is from another country, almost. Thanks for the correction.
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I knew what you meant.
.......the reserve oil supplies have been quickly replenishing themselves when previously, peak production couldbarely keep up a year ago. I understand that there are reports to the contrary, but this would seem to suggest a global slow down in oil consumption which is a pretty good indicator of the status of the global economic output.
Might be wise to sit on that cash in your mattress for a bit.
Link: https://www.ino.com/blog/2019/01/world-oil-supply-demand-price-outlook-january-2019/#.XJVmRYopCf0
But we were doing well. That would explain the softness in oil demand, since we are only part of the consumption curve.
Despite the storm clouds I noted in my subject line, I think the running consensus is 2.1% growth for 2019. That'll do.
China is more delicate economically speaking than we are, but they are poised to break out. Even with their amazing recent growth, they are still a sleeping giant like the US was before WWII.
And yet, they are a totally totalitarian state. I hate traveling there. Their society is truly oppressive. People don't realize. The world will not be a better place if and when China replaces the US as the primary power.
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The situation is so complex, that even experts predict things going both ways. Who knows? Certainly, I do not.
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