Trump receives 24/7 negative coverage from the media with >95% of stories negative
Obama received fawning coverage from the media with almost all of it being positive.
Yet still, Trump sits equal or ahead in a side by side poll.....either Trump is that much better or the media has inoculated Trump....or most likely a bit of both.
phone polls tend to skew toward likely Dem voters if anything
Trump sits one point ahead of where Obama was at this point, and Obama won his second term easily thereafter.
The economy is being felt, and Americans like it.
Thus far, the Dems message is The New Green Deal, socialism, infanticide and abortion, unfettered immigration, impeach, and RESIST.
Trump will not have any of the branches of government working against him in the next campaign.
Things seem to be heading in a certain direction.
Link: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/prez_track_may16
The only polling outfit that predicted more Republican votes than Democratic votes in 2018.
So other than undershooting the Democratic victory by 10 points (and more than any other poll), they do in fact seem to skew Dem, as you say.
Link: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
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...and in the polls that work within the reality of that, Trump is ahead comfortably in 4 of 6 battleground states, and is in a dead heat in the other two.
This is why Dems seem so worried despite the number you mentioned. Again, you are uninformed like a good liberal.
All state polls I have seen have Biden over Trump big in PA, MI and WI, less so but still winning in OH and AZ, and tied in weird places like NC and TX (!).
It’s way too far out, of course. But that is a bullshit polling outfit, I’m afraid.
As the president loves to say, we’ll see what happens.
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He is host of the Young Turks, a show that he named after the Turks who commited the Armenian Genocide. This is fantastic. Hope they both make the primary debate stage.
These national polls are rather meaningless w.r.t. the election.
Trump doesn’t need a single vote in California or New York to be re-elected.
It will come down to who can win swing states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, etc. I suspect the Democrats will ultimately select a nominee that is farther left than Hillary was, and Trump will have another popular vote loss, but easy electoral victory. (I also expect the Republicans will hold the senate, and Dems will hold the House.)
These polls reinforce a simple fact. Most American voters do not like their options. HRC and Trump were the two most unpopular candidates that ever ran for president. The fact that crowds come and cheer the candidates is not a true reflection of how the majority feels. If Biden or Trump are ahead in polls or even get elected, it does not mean Americans really want them or admire them. Whoever gets elected-including Trump will not be a popular choice.
...as a president. But our reason is because of his policies, not his personality.
Liberals have always been symbolism over substance while conservatives have usually been substance over symbolism.
You dislike your candidates, we like ours, and we both use different criteria.
Your original post was about polls which usually are not taken along party lines. They deal with potential voters. That was my point, potential voters. I know there are people such as yourself who love Trump but at the present time the majority of voters do not love any potential candidate, Dem or Rep. Trump included.
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therefore stay away from New York.
He coined the term the "Taranto Principle." What it means is that the groupthink liberal media will fawn over a Democratic candidate and not subject him or her to serious scrutiny or tough questions. The result is that the candidate tends to believe her shit doesn't stink but, as usual, the American people are smarter than that, and at some point in a campaign there is a defining moment when the candidate is totally unprepared to answer a tough question during a debate, or the candidate thinks she can coast to victory and play it safe.
The Taranto Principle comes true every election cycle. A recent poll showed Biden with a double digit lead on Trump in PA, which is the same poll that had Hillary up by double digits. It's only a matter of time until Biden thinks he can coast to victory or he gets to a debate and is knocked off his rocker by a question about the Ukraine or his son's $1.5B deal with the bank of China, questions the press is currently refusing to ask him about.
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The exposure of Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal as a hoaxer boasting of a nonexistent record of service in the Vietnam War is a splendid example of what is known as the Taranto Principle. Someday, the Taranto Principle will be taught in all the journalism schools, assuming one or two survive the present detumescence of journalism. Formulated by the inimitable Wall Street Journal editorialist James Taranto, the principle posits that when the liberal mainstream press indulges a liberal politician’s deceits or fails to hold the politician accountable for his misbehavior, it encourages the politician to ascend to a higher level of misbehavior.
Thus, for years Sen. Jean-Francois Kerry was wont to boast of his exploits in the Vietnam War. His sympathizers in the press never bothered to remind him or the citizenry that Mr. Kerry had embellished his military record and - worse - upon returning from Vietnam, he cast his lot with the rising anti-war movement. As an opponent of the war he even was emboldened to appear before Congress and mendaciously testify that his comrades had “personally raped, cut off ears, cut off heads, taped wires from portable telephones to human genitals and turned up the power, cut off limbs, blown up bodies, randomly shot at civilians, razed villages in fashion reminiscent of Genghis Khan.”
This garbagespiel was televised nationally and he should have known that tapes of it would be readily available in 2004 when he ran for president. Nonetheless, rather than stressing less controversial aspects of his years of public life, thanks to the liberal press’ indulgence of his exaggerated claims to heroism, he made the risky choice of running as a veteran of the Vietnam War. That angered those who had served with him and their revelations about his service sank his candidacy. The Taranto Principle is vindicated.
It has been vindicated again with the revelations about Mr. Blumenthal. For years, he has been fawned over by the liberal press. Pari passu with the passage of time, he has gone from being a young man who sought five military deferments during the Vietnam War to claiming repeatedly and falsely that he actually served in the war. On the way to making those false claims, he did indeed enlist in the Marine Reserve, but he never served in the war.
In 2008, the New York Times reports that he said in a speech, “We have learned something important since the days that I served in Vietnam.” At another point in 2008 the Times reports that he informed an audience that “I served during the Vietnam era,” concluding that “I remember the taunts, the insults, sometimes even physical abuse.” As recently as a few weeks ago, he publicly recalled being spit upon when “we returned from Vietnam.”
Now his campaign for the United States Senate is in grave jeopardy. Perhaps it could all have been avoided if years back, the press had taken a look at his claims, reported them and chastened him from making the increasingly bold assertions of nonsense.
As an addendum to the Taranto Principle, let me add an observation. Increasing numbers of candidates for public office, particularly at the national level, seem given to fantasy. They are encouraged to tell dramatic stories about themselves. The press loves it. Goaded by the Taranto Principle it is not long before those stories become total fantasies. Mr. Blumenthal is obviously one of those fantasists. Had he not been tripped up this week, he might have soon been telling the electorate about his Congressional Medal of Honor. Possibly, if he somehow manages to win the Democratic primary he still will, and then when the stakes are so high and the possibility exists that a Republican might beat him, will the Times raise doubts about his Congressional Medal of Honor? Mr. Taranto will be watching.