According to 538, Trump's approval (42.7) was at its highest point since early 2017 on May 7, 2019. It has slipped back to the normal range since (41.4).
I am curious - what was going on the first week of May that led to that run-up? Why didn't it last?
I suspect it has something to do with the Market. The DJIA didn't peak on May 7, 2019, but it had been riding well above 26,000 for a week or two, giving the polls a chance to catch up. Did that cumulatively raise his popularity? The market has fallen a bit since then, as has the approval ratings.
I also suspect that the completion of the Mueller investigation has raised his baseline, and that May 7 was just a normal week-to-week swing from a higher baseline. In other words, I'd take even money that he'll hit or surpass May 7 (42.7) occasionally in the next few months, but fall below it occasionally as well. To the extent his popularity is range bound, I think the range has had a permanent boost.
if they don't we are at worst all square.
Trump has no staying power because he has no guiding principles or redeeming beliefs.
He just drifts in the wind, day-to-day, without a compass or North Star.
I predict he will be at 33% by Christmas, and never get above 35% in 2020.
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they proved that in the 2016 election.
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The perps were of no more interest than Nixon’s plumbers. Unless they can be linked to the One the public could care less.
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....I will remind you rather harshly.
ACA. I will remind you periodically.
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to try to analyze it to that degree of granularity.
Not that I necessarily disagree with your hypothesis or interpretation or whatever a certain pedant would call your statements above.
You look for harmonics and patterns in everything, regardless of whether such analysis is useful.