So the new ABC/WP poll has Trump with his highest approval rating to date at 44%. But look at the methodology. It was a random sample of just over 1,000 nationwide. So after 2016 we should ask.
Who were these people
Where do they live
What is their ethnic mix
What are their ages
Are they likely to vote
All good questions but also look at the party identification of those polled.
29% Democrat
23% Republican
37% independent
Why that sampling? So with a 3.8% plus or minus, Trump could be at 48% approval. Polling can be skewed to get the results you want. Could it be that like 2016, when Trump supporters hang up? Also how are the questions worded that are asked?
Pollster: Do you agree with 50% of the US that Trump is an embarrassment to the country and has racist tendencies?
Or you could have the pollster ask: What is your opinion of President Trump with the economy doing so well?
See the difference?
So even with the polling skewed Trump is closing in on 50%.
Nice try media and pollsters. You will again be clueless on Election Day. Stay in your bubble. You’re safe there.
That’s all national polls can really do. If Trump has a consensus 44 percent approval, then that’s probably close.
And frankly that means more to me. It’s great for him that he worked the system and got to be president, but he’s never had the respect or support of the very country he rules.
In contrast, a segment (15 -20%) despised President Obama for all the wrong reasons.
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Now, I feel it my duty to endeavor to steer wayward Americans like yourself towards safer waters.
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I don't think you can get to a prediction of electoral vote by adjusting the sampling of a nationwide poll. They can only sample popular vote, which they got correctly.
And right now, we are talking about approval polls. Approval polls are a measure (one of many, no doubt) of how good a job the president is doing, not a predictor of the next election (which is over a year away). I, for one, don't question his ability to win the electoral vote.
This is approval rating among people who answer the phone and stay on the line for poll questions. Lots of Trump voters don't do that...including me. Why would we?
The "Trump acts in a way that is presidential" is a useless question to predict the election. I would obviously answer "no" to that question, but that only matters to voters who don't have important issues they weigh. A major pro-choicer would vote for Trump if he were a Dem pro-choicer, just for example, even if he is highly unpresidential. I guess it is an interesting academic question, though, for historians.
Some polls near an election predict the vote. Some polls not near an election identify the perception of the president.
My point is that the methodology used by the pollsters for sampling seem to be pretty accurate, since the election polls (consensus) was close to the outcome (within a percentage point). Thus, the approval polls are probably pretty accurate. As far as whether they are "likely to vote"- it doesn't matter. The "approval" polls are not really predicting an election. It doesn't matter whether you are likely to vote. If the people hate your leadership, then they hate you, whether they vote or not.
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