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Can you smell 27000? Can you smell what the Trumpster is cooking?

Author: BaronVonZemo (59845 Posts - Joined: Nov 19, 2010)

Posted at 11:14 am on Sep 11, 2019
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Someone needs to mention it since many of the libs jumped all over the media concocted "recession story".

https://proxy.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fi.ebayimg.com%2Fimages%2Fg%2FCA0AAOSweWVXfEVq%2Fs-l300.jpg&f=1&nofb=1

This message has been edited 2 time(s).

Replies to: Can you smell 27000? Can you smell what the Trumpster is cooking?


Thread Level: 2

I thought we smelled this two months ago.

Author: LehighND (7534 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 9:22 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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And almost two years ago when, it was 26,600+

So, yes. I've smelled 27,000 for years. Glad it finally happened.


Are you kind?
Thread Level: 3

Ooooh, that smell...

Author: TakethetrainKnute (33490 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 11:37 am on Sep 12, 2019
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Thread Level: 3

Take a heapin' helpin' of seconds! There's lots to go around!

Author: BaronVonZemo (59845 Posts - Joined: Nov 19, 2010)

Posted at 10:27 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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(no message)

This message has been edited 1 time(s).

Thread Level: 2

Dude, stop

Author: Nigel Tufnel (8035 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 1:28 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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All too reminiscent of a certain poster's frequent 'Scoreboard!' posts during the past administration. Dumb then, dumb now.

'I define fear as standing across from Joe Louis and knowing he wants to go home early.' - Max Baer
Thread Level: 3

Nigel.....

Author: BaronVonZemo (59845 Posts - Joined: Nov 19, 2010)

Posted at 2:05 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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......let me have my fun.

Thread Level: 4

Might as well while we can. The Dems will have us in rail cars soon.

Author: NedoftheHill (44632 Posts - Joined: Jun 29, 2011)

Posted at 2:41 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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(no message)

Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.
Thread Level: 2

A Trumpster fire, you say?

Author: Chris94 (36747 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 12:20 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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(no message)

Thread Level: 3

There you go!

Author: BaronVonZemo (59845 Posts - Joined: Nov 19, 2010)

Posted at 2:05 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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That's a good one.

Thread Level: 2

Meth?

Author: AlbanyIRISH (25807 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 11:37 am on Sep 11, 2019
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I just read he wants the Fed to drop interest rates to 0, or into negative territory.

Kind of reminds me of when Rocket Ismail played for Notre Dame
Invincibility with no vulnerability
Thread Level: 3

Yeah much like Obama had and the $18 trillion global debt at negative rates. Do you know what that

Author: PBHangingChad (15790 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 11:39 am on Sep 11, 2019
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means? We are at a disadvantage with global money flooding into the US. It’s an economic war we must fight daily. Why can’t you guys get this?

This message has been edited 2 time(s).

Thread Level: 4

I actually think it went from 10 to 20 trillion with Obama when interest rates were having a much

Author: THEISMANCARR (17199 Posts - Joined: Aug 10, 2007)

Posted at 9:27 am on Sep 12, 2019
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less compounding effect. So during Obama's time the debt rose 100% and only did not rise more because of very low or zero interest rates. During Trump's almost 3 years it has gone from 20 to 23 trillion or a rise of 15% and was hurt by interest rates rising. Hmmmm sounds like Trump is getting way more for less, when you consider lower unemployment and rising blue collar wages. You have the idea right though. Trump way much more to overcome statistically yet way more effective. Don't forget the timeline for 100% payout of social security has increased by two years 2034 to 2036 after two years of Trump job growth and lower unemployment. Trump policies are doing AOK in my eyes. I know you agree.

Thread Level: 5

You should probably stop posting about these things.

Author: LehighND (7534 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 2:45 pm on Sep 12, 2019
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Any attempt to discuss the rise in debt under Obama without acknowledgement of the recession is extremely uninformed, and really not helpful, unless you like masturbating to conjured up Trump achievements.

Are you kind?
Thread Level: 4

So walk me through this

Author: Mark (865 Posts - Joined: Jul 23, 2015)

Posted at 1:57 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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In the US, we have low interest rates engineered by the Fed (1.7 percent on the 10-year T-bill, the last I looked). The low yield would seem to suggest that people seeking income would not purchase government bonds -- right? Instead, they would be likely to purchase equities, particularly equities with a decent yield. But if income investors are forsaking government bonds for equities, wouldn't that have the effect of driving up the price of equities, under simple supply-and-demand principles? Add in fund managers who, I think, don't want to be caught with high-priced, low-yield bonds in their portfolios, because a 1.7 percent return doesn't look very good. Again, it would seem they would be inclined to put money into equities, again increasing demand (and price). Wouldn't it follow, then, that ultra-low interest rates are fueling a stock market bubble? If that's the case, how long can it go on? I'm not a hedge fund manager or an economist or anyone else with any sense at all when it comes to macroeconomics, but it seems to me that ultra-low interest rates for extended periods of time could be dangerous.

What about European central banks with negative interest rates? What are, for example, German income investors and fund managers doing with their money right now? Are they investing in German bonds? US Treasuries, for the better yield? Or do they also think 1.7 percent is not sufficient, and therefore gravitate toward equities? I really don't know, so I throw out these questions to the board.


Moderator
Thread Level: 5

The Fed auctions off treasuries to meet our debt requirement. They are sold domestically and

Author: PBHangingChad (15790 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 6:08 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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internationally. The rates are impacted by other factors beside supply and demand. You are right, why buy treasuries at just under 2% when you can buy a high dividend stock that is kicking off 5%. Some people don’t like risk and feel safer in US bonds and treasuries.

There are a couple issues here. The US is the world’s reserve currency. All commodities are bought and sold in dollars. So every country must buy dollars to maintain their currency balances. Secondly, a lot of EU countries at in or close to a recession. So they will swamp Europe with Euros that will lower Bund rates in Germany and others making US treasuries more attractive.

Trump wants the Fed to response since a stronger dollar weakens US exports. Imagine paying Germany to buy 47% Bunds.

So with the highest interest rates being paid and the dollar so strong it’s hard for the US to compete against other countries that are manipulating their currencies.


This message has been edited 1 time(s).

Thread Level: 6

That's all well and good, but...

Author: NedoftheHill (44632 Posts - Joined: Jun 29, 2011)

Posted at 6:33 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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(no message)

https://storytellergirlgrace.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/e43b24555b8a170f9709d8acf37d20c2.jpg

Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.
Thread Level: 5

I'm not an expert, but...

Author: NedoftheHill (44632 Posts - Joined: Jun 29, 2011)

Posted at 2:21 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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I will note that I think you mixed up yields and rates in your post. Rates are lower in other countries than in the US, and in some countries (last I looked), there are actually negative rates. So, for example, a corporation can buy German bonds at a negative rate (guaranteed loss if they keep until maturity) or US bonds at a positive rate (guaranteed very low gain if they keep until maturity. So, some transfer their money from euros into dollars (driving up the value of the dollar on the market) and buy US bonds. (Some people are still buying German bonds at negative rates, but I admit I don't get it. I suppose they think that is a safer form of wealth than money deposited in a private bank.)

When the dollar goes higher, Americans can buy more imported products, but it is harder for American businesses to sell abroad. A lower dollar helps American businesses marketing around the world. So, lower rates are good for that. Also, lower rates make borrowing easier...which is good in the short term (so the US markets and presidents of both parties love it) but potentially (almost certainly) bad in the long run.

Yields are a different matter. They are more an indication of confidence in the US, I think? I'll let someone else comment on that.

I think ultra-low rates do fuel a market bubble. I hope the bubble lasts through the next election. Obama was a beneficiary of the housing bubble popping before the 2008 election. Bush didn't make the bubble; both parties allowed it to happen; the timing of the pop possibly affected the election, though. But, make no mistake, any bubble is bad if it gets too big. We had a major money supply bubble build up under Obama (Supported by McCain & Bush), and that has still not been undone.


This message has been edited 2 time(s).

Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.
Thread Level: 6

Rates and yields

Author: Iggle (12613 Posts - Joined: Sep 14, 2007)

Posted at 4:33 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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The Fed sets the overnight interest rate that is the base of the whole yield curve. The Federal Funds Rate. This is what they have recently dropped and what Trump wants them to drop to zero.

Government bonds (and corporate bonds) have a coupon rate that is set at the time of issue. At the time of issue, the bond’s rate and its yield are essentially equal. So, you might issue a ten year note with a coupon rate of 2.25% and a price of par (100-00). It’s yield to maturity would basically be 2.25% at that time (+/- some minor adjustments related to when it pays its coupons, etc). Over time, the market’s view of economic prospects, etc could cause the price of the note to rise (for example), which would then lower the yield on the note. If the price goes to 101-00, the coupon rate stays the same, and so the yield to maturity drops. This is because the bond will mature at 100-00.

It is fair to ask why people would buy 10 year German Bunds at negative yields. They do because there is really no alternative. Banks won’t accept large deposits at even 0% interest because they have no way to invest those deposits. There is effectively no way for Siemens to just hold cash in a vault. So, they are stuck buying the Bunds. It really is a crazy situation.


Thread Level: 7

Well said

Author: PBHangingChad (15790 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 6:11 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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(no message)

Thread Level: 6

About bubbles being bad...really only if you sell. Look if you hung on in 2000 or 2008 -

Author: BaronVonZemo (59845 Posts - Joined: Nov 19, 2010)

Posted at 2:24 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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....you'd still be way up.

Now, it you combine hanging in there on the money already invested with a cash reserve to buy additionally when the market dumps....well that is a winning strategy.


This message has been edited 2 time(s).

Thread Level: 7

Agreed. I was thinking more about US business operations.

Author: NedoftheHill (44632 Posts - Joined: Jun 29, 2011)

Posted at 2:27 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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People can get laid off when a bubble bursts.

I met with a financial advisor recently. She noted we are in a "mature market" which means she expects short term declines. But, she said it is not bad to continue to buy the market, because I have enough time before I retire that the cycle will be on an upswing again before that point.


This message has been edited 1 time(s).

Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.
Thread Level: 2

Trump is cooking nothing. The economy drives itself... unless restrained unnaturally.

Author: Curly1918 (16435 Posts - Joined: Aug 30, 2017)

Posted at 11:27 am on Sep 11, 2019
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(no message)

Thread Level: 3

Tax cuts work, baby. Every time.

Author: BaronVonZemo (59845 Posts - Joined: Nov 19, 2010)

Posted at 2:07 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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(no message)

Thread Level: 4

So cut them to zero...

Author: LehighND (7534 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 9:26 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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(no message)

Are you kind?
Thread Level: 5

Oh, I never said no taxes, but after liberals have control, there is always cut backs to be made.

Author: BaronVonZemo (59845 Posts - Joined: Nov 19, 2010)

Posted at 10:28 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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(no message)

Thread Level: 4

How's that deficit looking? Oops. Forgot. Obama gone.

Author: golfernot (2633 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 4:30 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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(no message)

Thread Level: 5

See above for debt analysis. Also slow your swing and pose at the finish to help your golf game.

Author: THEISMANCARR (17199 Posts - Joined: Aug 10, 2007)

Posted at 9:30 am on Sep 12, 2019
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(no message)

Thread Level: 5

Oops. Forgot. You don't actually care about the deficit.

Author: NedoftheHill (44632 Posts - Joined: Jun 29, 2011)

Posted at 5:27 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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(no message)

Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.
Thread Level: 6

I think I do and I think you don't.

Author: golfernot (2633 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 10:22 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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(no message)

Thread Level: 7

Oh, I care about it more than any one else on this board.

Author: NedoftheHill (44632 Posts - Joined: Jun 29, 2011)

Posted at 10:27 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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I've said it before and I will say it again: I would cut every spending program by 20% tomorrow...even my favorite programs. Will you agree with me on that?

Unfortunately, political partisans only care when the other party is in power, and when you get into power, you want to spend on your favorite programs. We KNOW the Democrats would increase spending over what Trump and the GOP are spending, so you cannot criticize any conservative on this board with regard to deficit spending. Try criticizing on an issue regarding which the Dems provide a good alternative.


This message has been edited 3 time(s).

Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.
Thread Level: 8

My issue is that the deficit only mattered to conservatives when Obama was Prez.

Author: golfernot (2633 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 12:58 pm on Sep 12, 2019
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I could probably be sold on a 20% across the board cut.

Thread Level: 9

And my issue is that the deficit only matters to liberals when the GOP has the presidency.

Author: NedoftheHill (44632 Posts - Joined: Jun 29, 2011)

Posted at 1:22 pm on Sep 12, 2019
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I celebrate our common ground (yours and mine, individually) that deficit spending is bad.

The two major parties obviously also have common ground: paying lip service to the issue of deficit spending when the other party is in charge.

When every leading Dem candidate would spend more than what we are spending now (just on different things), it seems hypocritical to hear a person who will vote for one of them criticizing the Right for deficit spending. But, if your point is that the Right pays lip service to deficit spending but violates their own principles, then I accept your point...and then add, "So does the Left."

I certainly wish our parties would cut our spending. But, they won't. Thus...Fasten your seatbelt!


This message has been edited 1 time(s).

Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.
Thread Level: 3

Maybe his tax returns...

Author: TakethetrainKnute (33490 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 12:12 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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...but we'll never know...

Thread Level: 3

How was it restrained during the mortgage meltdown? All those involved in that now criticize Trump

Author: PBHangingChad (15790 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 11:35 am on Sep 11, 2019
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They have a lot of nerve. They managed the US economy during the Bush administration which created a meltdown with millions losing their jobs and homes. Now they are the experts. Fuck them.

Thread Level: 4

Requiring banks to lend to poor folk was a form of economic restraint

Author: Curly1918 (16435 Posts - Joined: Aug 30, 2017)

Posted at 11:52 am on Sep 11, 2019
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We all knew it was a pyramid scheme and doomed to collapse as soon as they could not make the payments.

Thread Level: 5

That took almost 16 years to totally undo the US economy.

Author: NedoftheHill (44632 Posts - Joined: Jun 29, 2011)

Posted at 2:42 pm on Sep 11, 2019
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If the Dems were lucky enough to have that blow up sooner, Bush might not have been a two term president.

Evil preaches tolerance until it is dominant, then it tries to silence good.
Thread Level: 2

That’s not important America is focused on sharpies. Come on stay on the important stuff

Author: PBHangingChad (15790 Posts - Original UHND Member)

Posted at 11:25 am on Sep 11, 2019
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(no message)

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