According to the website worldometers.info, South Korea has 8,236 total cases at the time of this post, 10:12 p.m on 3/15. That comes out to .016 of 1% of their population.
And according to the principle of Farr's Law, all epidemics and pandemics follow a predictable and symmetrical bell curve. The increase in the number of cases in South Korea peaked on March 3, 13 days after the first recorded case. The number of active cases peaked on March 11, 21 days after the first recorded case. Assuming the first person in South Korea got the disease 14 days prior to March 3, that means, at least according to Farr's Law, South Korea will be virus free 35 days after March 11, or April 15, with well under 1% of their population being afflicted.
Cole put up a link featuring Stanford professor and Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt, who said China will have no cases by the end of March. This seems to bolster that South Korea will be done by April 15 as the timelines are similar.
As I asked earlier, what am I missing here?
Link: South Korea and Coronavirus
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Ricki walked away with $300,000,000
if you don't know that you really should watch something other than Fox.
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What if by the time we get to July most people have forgotten the coronavirus?
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one of them above.
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It won't peak here until we do the same. Thus far, our response has been totally different than theirs. No reason to expect similar results when different methods are being used.
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They can test 10,000 per day. We have yet to test 10,000 Americans. They know what they are dealing with. As of now we have no idea how many Americans are currently infected. Until we know what are base is, it is hard to predict how many of our citizens will eventually get infected.
A nation cannot manage the risks until the nation has accurate and reliable data.
Testing. Testing. Testing.
But, of course everyone will be thrilled if < 1% of Americans are infected.
Beers on me if true.
That still means just .011 of 1% of U.S. residents have it. And given that large-capacity gatherings are not happening, and let's give credit to the American people. I've never seen so much hand washing, hand sanitizer use and social distancing in my life. I believe I read where Fauci said that's more important than knowing the actual numbers. And it's one of the reasons we should be done with this by the end of April at the latest, given the current trends. I don't discount something unforeseen can happen, but right now, that's where the trends are heading.
Because the virus spreads at an exponential rate, cutting off the spread immediately (as Dr. Fauci demands) is what the nation is doing.
But, to get a more accurate picture of how much it has spread to date, we need to freeze in place, and wait 7-10 days. The # will be higher than you think.
Yet, the # will be significantly lower than what it would otherwise be, assuming we did not take drastic measures.
"By my calculation", note that I needed Jake Kline (God rest his sole) to get through freshman math.
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