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We really don’t have good numbers yet. I suspect that your statement will be true, yet the govt of Italy releases death numbers that suggest a much worse outcome.
The key issue is whether the corona virus was thought to be the actual cause of death. Since it affects the vulnerable the most, those people who contract the virus and die may or may not have done so because of corona virus.
The media is bunching everyone and presenting it as the risk to general public when it is very likely not the case.
In fact, every sick patient nearing death who happens to also test + for corona is being thrown into some of these estimates
The risk to young, healthy people is likely to be pretty low as you pointed out. But for cancer patients on chemotherapy or elderly patients who smoked, etc., that risk is significant.
We need to let the experts give the %’s, but the media is going hog wild to be the first to report. They want credit and viewership for the blockbuster scary news. We also are paying the price for the poor job that our educational system has done for the general population in mathematics and statistics.
Now, so that I am clear, it is still likely that this is going to overwhelm our hospitals, and I think it is wis to do what we are doing at least until the situation and real risks become more clear. But I do agree that there is hysteria which may prevent a recovery down the road.
and panic. Many newspaper (WSJ...) now started to look more at the way Italy reported their fatalities.
Link: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/
Definitely like to dig into these numbers because they represent real outlying data from the previous information.
If it’s real, we need to know, but I would definite hold the horses of panic to check on this first.
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previous estimates of death rates. I want to dig into the data on all outliers before panicking.
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largest economy (CA) and 11th-biggest economy (NY), you show your despair and irrationality that resemble the medieval sacrifice rituals.
you’re batshit crazy.
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This is a waste of my time. You seem to cherish it. Why I don't know. Only you do.
Moron.
to sign a waiver for ventilator use in case there are too many patients.
My guess though is in that event, you would be whining that you need one ahead of an old person because you are too young to die.
Per the Johns Hopkins tracking site:
-- Total Deaths Worldwide: 14,366
-- Total Recovered Worldwide: 95,656
-- Total of resolved cases (those two numbers added together, excluding all active cases which are unresolved): 110,022
-- Percent mortality: Deaths / Total = 13% ... which is a very high mortality rate.
(I will invite anyone to correct my math.)
Hopefully you are looking at US only numbers, and hopefully the US numbers are as you say they are. Johns Hopkins is reporting US numbers by state instead of by country, and I would have to add up all 50 states to get the US numbers. Anyone have a reliable site for US numbers?
where 20% were infected and 1% died.
BTW, we need to make it clear on mortality, i.e is it for the general population or for the infected population?
But, I also assume that China was reporting deaths at a much lower rate, which could indicate the numbers are worse.
But, but, I also assume that the US will have better medical success, so the numbers should be better for the US regardless.
All is uncertain at this point.
China's mortality rate (sorry Lance, these scientists didn't use your math). They got 1.1% mortality on China.
So, we have 1.2% for Diamond Princess and 1.1% for China. one stone 2 birds.
Link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2
You don’t count the whole fucking boat unless the whole fucking boat contracted it.
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Data from that period in most countries is very bad. The rate is a total academic estimate for Spanish Flu.
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There's a quote from an Italian doc up on Drudge that they are no longer treating people over 60. Of course, Boyd and WestCoast have it figured out that since most of the cases here are "low level," that couldn't possibly overwhelm our hospitals.
BTW, look at the severity of the symptoms for "mid level" positives. Not good. Also keep in mind that they haven't ruled out the possibility that we can be reinfected.
The answer to this is critical in the interpretation of the data.
I wish people would wait to hear from someone other than Drudge and the paparazzi before beginning the panic.
I do agree that it is very disturbing if accurate. I don’t agree with those who woul blow this off. But I am at least initially skeptical of these numbers since they represent quite a different picture than what the experts have expected based on previous data though it is certainly possible.
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Link: https://www.google.com/amp/amp.abc.net.au/article/12075878
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No one knows, but these clowns would be all to happy risking flooding the medical system which is the concern of the experts to maintain their way of life.
portfolio, much of this boils down to selfishattitudes and selfish people. My guess is at least some of their tunes would change if its their grandparents prematurely dying.
I'm reminded of the afternoon of September 11th, when I drove past massive lines in the middle of nowhere with people hoarding gasoline. I had the same feeling in my stomach back then as I do now when I witness some of this behavior.
But ya gotta do what ya gotta do, and not whine like a little bitch over trying to save lives.
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The "confirmed cases" could resolve to either death or recovery. You are counting them all as recovery.
I eliminated unresolved cases, and only calculated the mortality rate in resolved cases:
mortality rate = deaths / (deaths + recoveries).
Active/pending cases are unresolved, and so not included in the math.
I believe my math is correct, not yours, but feel free to elaborate on how you got to 1%.
math for the time being, because the rate of cases continues to rise faster than than the mortality rate. As such, the mortality rate will continue to decline.
God rest his soul.
Link: https://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Jake_Kline
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NYc has 10,000 infections and 63 deaths.
Understand?
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should just be outlawed.
You might want to throw in gun deaths, too.
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If you think this is no worse than a bad case of the flu, you haven't been reading objective news sources.