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to stop its spread.
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Their curve has flattened....nationwide ours is still going up exponentially
after the 9/11 attacks. The spirit of this country is with it's people and not it's politicians.
and they can kick this thing in the ass. The faster the better. Now all we need is for the asshole's in Washington to act like adults and stop playing political games.
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expense of the health of the economy and the unintended consequence of shutting down the economy for months? CNBC finally is starting to question if the long-term impacts of the shut downs are going to outweigh the benefits of the quarantines.
As a nation, we made the huge mistake of not biting the bullet earlier and jumping on a much smaller economic hand grenade.
At this point, we still need to go extreme for 14 days, and then start opening the economy back up, especially in places that are not reporting new cases.
Then, as the nation has isolated the infected, we can open up travel, etc.
I still think it is doable, but requires strong leadership.
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Do you see a difference?
I don't say this to be mean-spirited at all. Both my parents are in their mid 80s. Waking up everyone morning they are at risk not to make it to the end of the day. A fall, getting clipped by a speeding car because they are taking to long to cross the street, organ failure, catching a cold. Has the coronavirus markedly increased their chances of dying or is it just another on the long list of risks they already face?
There is a reason why the Surgeon General demands that we all avoid each other.
I've heard the words, but no one has shown me the numbers.
EDIT: I read my posts and they seem heartless but that's not where I'm going with this. Is the virus' additive effect 1:1? I don't think it is. I'll bet it's substantially less than this. That's the math I'm looking for.
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Link: https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm
Death Rate in US (2017):
65-69: 1.8%
70-74: 2.7%
75-79: 4.2%
80-84: 6.9%
>85: 14.7%
COVID-19 death rate (China - 2019/2020):
65 - 84: 1% to 3%
>85: 10% to 27%
Without factoring in the average health of a 65+ American vs. Chinese person, COVID-19 death rates are in line with the expected death rate of the general population in the US. Where I'm going with this is I don't believe there is a 1:1 additive effect here. Now that COVID-19 is upon us, I don't expect the death rate among Americans over 85 to suddenly jump to 24.7% to 41.7%. It appears it is more successful in people with underlying conditions, and in some of those cases the underlying condition was probably fatal anyway. Take for the example the 21 year old that died in Spain. The kid had leukemia. His probability of dying was already higher than average. The virus just brought about his death a bit sooner. It's tragic, but likely wasn't avoidable.
Look, I'm not saying we shouldn't wash our hands and socially distance for a while. I'm all in on that. I just think that the longer this drags out more people are going to start digging into the detailed stats on this and making the hard choices that it's time to get the general population back to work while only isolating the at risk people. It's not today, tomorrow, or the next few weeks. But I think it will be in a couple of months at the latest.
There is a reason we don't design airports for the Thanksgiving Holiday rush and we don't design sanitary sewers assuming everyone flushes as the same time.
taly, the mortality rate is nowhere close to 5%.
I assumed a death rate of .05. 1/2 of 1%
Not 5 %
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Link: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Should they have implemented restrictions?
Also, this has a higher mortality rate. Assume .5% and you have 250K dead Americans.
Idjit.
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Get your head out of yer ass.
any time and probably will again in the future. China already is saying they've seen the virus resurface in its borders.
If you don’t have restrictions now, the peak will be overwhelming. After, that you start loosening them.
Real hard to understand.
Assuming it does go away...what prevents a similar one from resurfacing in the not too distant future and how do you prepare for it?
IE what could have been done differently to be better prepared for this one?
Each year they develop a flu shot/vaccine in an attempt to predict what the current year flu strain will look like
Some years they guess better than others right which is why so many people die each year from the flu and it affects so many people
I wonder what the numbers look like this year for the regular flu? One would hope/assume they are down significantly due to the social distancing measures that have been put in place
this is a totally non-political series of questions/observations.....
Also what is the backside of this going to look like? IE when is the "all clear" signal going to go out and life goes back to some semblance of normal?
In about a year a vaccine solves it. Until then, the reoccurrences are of much less magnitude than the initial outbreak.
The Spanish flu had reoccurrences for two years up to 1920. It killed one of my uncles as a child that year. But they were manageable in size by even that system. The initial one wasn’t.
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you enjoy willful ignorance.
On the flu shot it works 40-60% of the time but that’s because they have to guess the strain to combat. It’s normally not a perfect match. This one will be like H1N1.
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Link: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-flu-usa-idUSN1223579720100212
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in the ether, now.
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He was staying at home when he got it. (Backing up your point.)
The lack of preparedness for this is breathtaking.
The best we can do is make sure the country is healthy (financially speaking) so that we have the resources to do what needs to be done in unexpected situations. Of course, our Federal Government and many state governments (e.g., Illinois, California) have made sure to squander our resources during normal times, so that when the unexpected fractal / black swan event comes, we don't actually know if our governments have the resources to handle this. QE Infinity?...er, ok...will that work...who knows? More legislated debt?...will that continue to work...who knows?
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"saves" one life. I'll be curious to see if you are singing the same tune in a couple months.
group, etc. It adds up and will add up much faster unless spread is stopped.
This isn’t just BS talk. I own a small bidness, and am feeling it quite directly, thank you. You?
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well never mind.
What do you think the impact on the economy would have been if we had put place no restrictions and the spread was like Italy?
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Your qualifications to judge this are obviously outstanding.
inite period was and is stupid. If the virus becomes as bad as you seem to think it is, the economy would have come to a halt anyway. Citizens and businesses over time have shown a propensity to manage bad flu outbreaks and the like. Present the facts and let people decide what sort of risk they want to take.
If we did the same we would be in the same position. Everyone else other than China and S. Korea which took strong measures were behind Italy time wise and took better safety precautions in time.
The idea is to prevent it from becoming that bad. If it does you will not only have a dead economy but tens or hundreds of thousands of dead prople.
you are a moron of staggering proportions.
problem or agree with these steps. Fox News in particular was disgraceful with their early coverage of this thing. Everyone has their own facts these days. Unfortunately, I think we would need something akin to martial law to enforce anything this strict. People will die in the thousands before that happens.
Link: And Even The Blue Staters Don’t Get It.