Now this I take with a grain of salt, but if even close to true, very scary. (Headliner on Drudge)
This is with keeping restrictions in place.
Paris (AFP) - COVID-19 could lead to more than 80,000 deaths in the US and overwhelm hospital capacity nationally as soon as early April even if social distancing measures are respected, new research showed Thursday.
The US death toll for the pandemic has already soared past 1,000, with 68,000 confirmed infections.
Forecasters at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington's School of Medicine analysed the latest COVID-19 data at a local, national and international level.
These include hospitalisation and mortality rates, as well as patient date in terms of age, gender and pre-existing health problems.
Specifically, they looked at the time lag between the first fatal cases and public interventions such as shuttering schools and businesses.
They then looked at each American state's ICU bed and ventilator capacity.
The analysis warned that based on current trends, demand for both would far exceed capacity for COVID-19 patients as early as the second week of April.
During the epidemic peak -- also set for some point in April -- as many as 2,300 patients could die every day, according to the IHME models.
This was the case even if the population adhered to strict social distancing measures.
"Our estimated trajectory of COVID-19 deaths assumes continued and uninterrupted vigilance by the general public, hospital workers, and government agencies," said Christopher Murray, IHME director.
"The trajectory of the pandemic will change -- and dramatically for the worse -- if people ease up on social distancing or relax with other precautions."
The analysis estimated that approximately 81,000 people in the US will die from the virus over the coming four months.
Estimates ranged between 38,000 and more than 160,000.
It forecast that a total of 41 US states will need more ICU beds than are currently available and that 12 states may need to increase their capacity by 50 percent or more to accommodate patient needs.
The economic shutdown triggered by the coronavirus pandemic caused an unprecedented 3.3 million people to file for unemployment benefits last week alone.
"We hope these forecasts will help leaders of medical systems figure out innovative ways to deliver high-quality care to those who will need their services in the coming weeks," said Murray.
Replies to: Now this I take with a grain of salt, but if even close to true, very scary. (Headliner on Drudge)
Drudge has devolved to political National Inquirer status. Unless it bleed... it does not lead.
Not too many links there to the NYT or the WP, much less any respectable less "progressive" media outlets.
80k death? We had 61k deaths in 17-18 flu season. None of you on this thread even gave a damn then.
There's a vaccine for the flu.
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Which obviously worked real well
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Less than half of American's get a flu shot annually.
I'm guessing that number will balloon next autumn.
Thay may or may not work at all
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It works perfectly. They just have to guess at the strains each year so it isn’t a perfect match.
A large percentage also don’t get the shot.
Find a soul.
Conor since you have some free time a book you might want to read is "Younger Next Year"
by Chris Crowley. The premise is through exercise the body can be convinced it is not aging. Most of us as we near retirement think we should slow down. If instead of slowing down we pick up the pace the body adapts, the result being a younger you. One of the best books I have ever read.
Thanks 64. Will put it in my queue.
I feel like a 40 year old — and do my best to stay reasonably fit despite working long hours.
Age is a relative concept.
He was a PLA soldier who believes the protesters caused the deaths in Tienamen Square.
Few lower forms of life populate the planet.
...all 300 of them.
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Were there that many?
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I think Eli admits 160, or maybe less, all from self-inflicted wounds...
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While Eli isn't proud of what he did there (whatever that may have been) he also doesn’t regret it.
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Get real.
80K in the next 4 months... consensus estimate is 250K by the end of the year.
About the only accurate thing you have said. Wasn’t around then. Did kill an uncle as a child.
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Two options: Listen to Trump or listen to the experts --
We also need to discuss the two premises at the heart of this thing.
Will the economy completely crater into a depression if we maintain the social distancing?
Will the economy rebound quickly in the event that there is a continuing upward curve in infection and death? In other words is 80K or more potential deaths acceptable to find out?
Of course. Play with the sliding bar in the link.
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Pretty surprising and powerful stock rally happening.
Maybe it's all reaction to the trillions being thrown at the economy. Or maybe someone is following Matt Levine's formula for becoming a zillionaire:
1) Discover treatment for Corona
2) Buy the shit out of the market
3) Announce your treatment for Corona
I say Chinese are buying them. It's too cheap and most Americans are too scared to think, thank MSM.
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You talk out yer ass every post.
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I’ll take it. Stimulus plus fundamentals still good. I think the economy will bounce back well.
The societal impacts of this though, who knows.
