Time to stop deceiving/misleading the public on flatten the curve and social distancing, and give
the public accurate info about flatten the curve and social distancing.
"Hiding infections in the future is not the same as avoiding them".
"Unfortunately, extreme mitigation efforts which end (even gradually) reduce the number of deaths only by 1% or so; as the mitigation efforts let up, we still see a full-scale epidemic, since almost none of the population has developed immunity to the virus."
Note: their analysis is based on the assumption that we won't have covid-19 vaccine within 12-24 months.
Link: https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-modeling-5c156686a64b
Replies to: Time to stop deceiving/misleading the public on flatten the curve and social distancing, and give
It's also time to stop misleading the public on Bat Boy.
And Comet Pizza.
You're suggesting in all this, social distancing and other efforts to mitigate contracting the virus
are a waste of time?
In other words we should all go about our daily routines again and let the chips fall where they may - the elderly and the compromised should
live or not live and when a true vaccine becomes available, those who haven't died can be inoculated against the disease if they haven't already
fought it off and have the antibodies.
Did I get this correct or am I misunderstanding your point of view?
Ask him what he did at Tienamen that he isn’t exactly proud of.
That’s what you are dealing with there.
I'm afraid to.
(no message)
I tried to explain this to Chris who told me I made an incredibly stupid statement. But the
non medically educated people (esp on the Left which I guess may be redundant to say), don't seem to grasp that we cannot contain this epidemic. In fact, the epidemic was already inevitable before the New Year thanks to China's duplicity.
We will all be exposed. We will all run the risk. The question is whether we will have optimal care or not at the time that we get our infection if we are one of the few who gets seriously sick from it.
Sweden has taken the approach that we in the US did in 2009 to H1N1. But this was an election year, so that was never really an option for us with our TDS media.
I trust trump to make the tough call to go back to work and start working on herd immunity as soon as the medical community is reasonably prepared.
I again bring up the controversial topic of considering taking medical personnel volunteers to be exposed to Corona now so that we have them immune and ready to go when the present workes contract the virus in the months to come.
It remains an incredibly stupid statement. And that mathematician is making the same mistake.
This model does not factor in the very real possibility of treatments being developed.
If we flatten the curve - and delay infections - many more will get it when the disease may well have a treatment.
The mortality will be drastically different.
(Also - flattening the curve prevents hospitals from becoming overwhelmed, which allows more people to get the best treatment, and fewer will die - PLUS fewer will die from indirect causes [deaths that would have been preventable had not the hospitals been overwhelmed - mortality above expectation]).
Did you really read it? The author pointed out the flaw of current models & the claim based on
these models that "the measures have saved lives" which is deceitfully cut off at some future moment. They ignored the lives that would be lost soon after the cutoff in the scenario with their measure policies. I think we can all agree on benefits and risks of flattem the curve if we get honest information about it from the MSM and their experts. After that, we can think what kind of social distancing measure (strict or loose, none) we can take.
In response to your trivial point, those flawed models the authors pointed to didn't factor possibility of treatments being developed either. That's X factor, can't be quantified and therefore shouldn't be in any models.
I see. The MSM is lying about the plague. I should have known!
Models are only as good as the assumptions upon which they are based. Those models assume no treatments.
They are worthless.
And you don’t seem to understand the notion of excess mortality due to overwhelmed hospitals. Which is not surprising, because you don’t understand much.