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I can't read your article.

How do you explain Italy, Belgium, and Spain?

A. We will end up at the same death ratio - it just will have taken longer.
B. We would never had ended up with their death ratio - for some reason.

And then the next questions

1. Are our precautions greater or weaker than the world average/median?
2. Is the whole world wrong?

Because you make decisions based on false information.

Probably none of the data is actionable even at this point in time. From the story linked below, 96% of prisoners who tested positive had no symptoms whatsoever. This indicates that short of testing everyone (or a representative sample) we have no idea what the denominator is for cases, hospitalizations or deaths.

A city in Italy actually had "hug a Chinese" day, so there's that.

It wouldn't be out of the ordinary to find out that distinct populations have more or less susceptibility to a particular virus. But until we have better data, who knows?

I will also say, I think the idea of ramping up precautionary measures is stupid if the goal is to eliminate the virus. Only way that can happen is shutting everything down immediately and you need a high degree of compliance. However, if the goal was to flatten the curve, we've done fine. Hospitals have been able to handle it.

Now, if 130M additional people die from starvation this year and it's because of all of the shutdowns, we definitely overreacted. There's also this study that correlates 500,000 additional cancer deaths in the US during the great recession. Causation not established, but interesting nonetheless.

You need to figure out how to get them all to listen to you, next time this happens. I think your advice is - Just don't have a Hug-a-Chinese day, and go about your normal life. Problem solved.

There's a lot of field between "do nothing, the economy!" and "shutdown until we have a cure or a vaccine". Originally, I thought we reacted too late, ya know the toothpaste was already out of the tube. Now I'm starting to think we actually overreacted, but only because I am looking at data. (And yes, the whole world can be wrong, remember Galileo?).

But let's start with this. You seem to think we closed down relying on some data we now know to be false data. I don't think anyone clung to any particular piece of data (good or bad) in their decisions to close down. All I know is that it seems to have worked out as planned. We completely shut down and although we still have more deaths than the worst flu (probably since 1918), but we avoided overrunning the hospitals. We've done better than France, Italy and quite a few other countries. And by spreading it out, many of us will catch this after there is a decent treatment protocol.

It seems like the success of this strategy is its undoing.

I do wonder how much social media has changed the game.

My governor has been talking about the data making the decisions ad nauseum, I suspect this wasn't an original idea she had. Iowa shutdown right after SF. Of course, there's not been a shelter in place order issued which has caused criticism from national media, but we've effectively been shutdown.

But Iowa's curve is flatter than NY which shutdown later, so again, if that was the goal, huge success.

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I still put at least 95% of the blame on China.

But, it's starting to look like this virus is much, much less scary than it originally did.

Shows the Trump admin and Trump didn't really grasp the idea China was a pandemic tsunami's beginning tidal bore.

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But I love dark comedies, so...

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Maybe he should have canceled the primaries? What exactly would you have had him do while the impeachment was going on that would not have been decried by you as a totalitarian power grab at that time?

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Link: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-u-s-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosvita

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Otherwise, flame on.

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the US government acted entirely too late and that the virus is even more unpredictable than first thought. It shows some are more affected by the virus than others and no one knows why.

But flame on some more.

If the virus turns out much less deadly than we originally thought, we actually overreacted.

If the economic and social fallout from the reaction to the virus causes more pain, suffering and death than the virus itself, we actually overreacted.

If your goal is to eliminate the virus, we acted way too late. Worth noting that eliminating a virus with asymptomatic spreaders is quite difficult.

If your goal is to flatten the curve, we have been successful.

At least 95% of the blame belongs to China. If you want to say Trump is responsible for the other 5%, fine whatever, but I'd say the CDC (failed tests), WHO (China chronies), a whole bunch of governors and even Fauci made some mistakes. Hell, even you and I are a portion to blame just for being human. See, it's your fault Jim!

You've chosen data that only proves, inmates have been found to have the virus where only some have suffered. It in no way serves as an indicator
that this was an overreaction to this virus.

Though an interesting case it only serves as an case to be studied.

There are many more factors creating this pandemic and the reasons why the country should have been locked down.

There is no one here on this board who wants these lock downs over with and wished more than ever that they weren't the solution, than me. This lockdown
is a major tragedy on its own but in conclusion, a necessary one.

The fact is that people die. Less tragic than when dogs die, but still usually tragic.

You're starting with an unproven theory and no intentions for experimentation, I am starting with a hypothesis. The data is trending away from the apocalypse. Sorry, but that's where we're at. I'm just an observer.

And there is precedent for this lock-down. You're not a very good observer.

"The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918.

It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States. Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic.

While the 1918 H1N1 virus has been synthesized and evaluated, the properties that made it so devastating are not well understood. With no vaccine to protect against influenza infection and no antibiotics to treat secondary bacterial infections that can be associated with influenza infections, control efforts worldwide were limited to non-pharmaceutical interventions such as isolation, quarantine, good personal hygiene, use of disinfectants, and limitations of public gatherings, which were applied unevenly."

Thank your lucky stars!

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these are the new paradigms in leadership. Who knew?