at a major institution at the center of all things Coronavirus sent me a link to the IHME model. He said it was a great resource for understanding the threat of the virus.
Yesterday I was messaging back and forth with him with my "rant" on how all of the data is unreliable with limited utility. One of my examples was how the death projections for Ohio have gone up and down like a yo-yo in the IHME model.
He told me that no real epidemiologist takes that model seriously. That they aren't real scientists who are carrying water for "you know who" and trying to make him look better. I think he must have a short memory and I didn't have the heart to call him out on it. I thought that was funny.
Fauci has said that about a hundred times.
We focus way too much on the models.
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The real big issue is the high uncertainty interval of these models that is the core of the problems of these models.
Let me give you one simple example to show how important the uncertainty is in science. Supposed you did a science project that needs you to measure a length of an object. You got the result 7 ft with standard error of +/- 3 ft. So, the uncertainly in your measurement is a 6 ft range (from 4 ft to 10 ft). Your uncertainty in this instance is so high that it can be comparable to and even close to your result 7 ft. From this high uncertainly I can tell your science project is a garbage. You should always suspect those scientific results with high uncertainly/high error bar.
This is why your first general physics lab in your high school and college, using Vernier caliper, balance...etc., to do some measurements, very simple though, actually is very important. You use tools to measure, calculate standard errors and do uncertainty analysis. All these are very fundamental in science.
He's a very qualified and intelligent guy and I rely on him for a lot of information. But clearly his political bias is skewing how he views his fellow scientists. Although maybe he reserves that for private conversations.
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Contrast an informed, competent and fully prepared Administration, ... which the United States has not enjoyed since January 2017.
The more real data we have over the life of this pandemic, the better decision making will unfold.
I remember his little speech brought tears to your eyes. What a leader!
There are very few people with IQs over, say, 85 who would have thought it was a good idea to send infected people to nursing homes.
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N.Y. Dems want an independent probe of Cuomo’s March 25 order that N.Y. nursing homes be forced to accept covid-19 patients from hospitals.
That, my friend, is called a Major Fuckup.
Link: https://www.wkbw.com/rebound/coronavirus-investigations/lawmakers-want-independent-probe-of-n-y-nursing-home-covid-19-deaths
It appears Governor Cuomo is on your side re protecting nursing homes.
Link: https://www.wkbw.com/rebound/coronavirus-investigations/new-york-to-investigate-nursing-homes-as-covid-19-horror-stories-mount
Cuomo ordered a lawyer at the department of health to look into it. The Democratic legislators are calling for an independent investigation of the horrific mistake.