I don't have any time to carry on the discussion this weekend, but I thought you'd be interested in this article. We can pick this up again next week if you like.
As I've been saying, the evidence does not yet exist supporting the theory that there is some massive new white flight out of urban areas because of the pandemic or civil unrest. Not saying it won't ever happen. Just reiterating that it isn't happening yet, nor do I think it will happen soon.
You’ve heard the story before: After the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, city dwellers fled urban centers in droves, hoping to escape the rapid spread of the virus. Now, unshackled from cities by work-from-home policies, these urban ex-pats are causing a housing market boom in suburban and rural areas.
It’s a narrative that has, since mid-March, proliferated through practically every major media outlet in the country. These new versions of “Why I Left New York” stories have helped paint a picture of a city significantly changed by people decamping to the suburbs. The only problem is that supporting evidence for this urban exodus narrative is, at best, flimsy and, at worst, nonexistent.
For the week ending on May 10 — which was around the height of the pandemic in New York City — the percentage of search traffic from the New York metro area to out of market areas rose 5.4 percentage points year-over-year, which appears to reflect a minor uptick in people wanting to get out of the city. But if you take a closer look at the breakdown of searches by population density, the share of search traffic from the New York metro area to suburban and rural areas dropped, while the share of search traffic looking at other urban areas rose. Taken together, this shows that while there was a minor uptick in New Yorkers looking for homes outside of the New York area, it’s slightly tilted toward other urban areas than it has been in the past. The search data, which is already a weak indicator, does not actually reflect an increase in New Yorkers’ interest in moving to suburban or rural areas.
The same is generally true for a number of other cities as well, including Detroit, St. Louis, San Jose, Pittsburg, Cleveland, Miami, Las Vegas, Boston, Baltimore, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia.
Link: All these stories about people fleeing cities are total nonsense
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but white or urban flight has been happening for the past 30 years. Even state flight has been happing. People with money are leaving the state, leaving behind those that have no money. Only recently, has people come back to the city. But those have been to buy a Secord home, so they don't have far to travel in the morning to get to work. But on weekends they are gone.
All I can say is that houses by me out on Long Island in an, to put it mildly, uncertain economy, are bidding up above ask right now.
I know the same is happening in New Jersey where my sister lives.
Could only be short term...but it is happening at the moment, at least here.
Additionally it’s estimated that 25% of New Yorkers haven’t paid rent since March and 40%did not pay in June.
Right now they can’t be evicted but they are running up huge arrears. Some may be doing it because they can but those who lost jobs will be part of a “forced flight” to come.
Ocean City NJ - houses are flying off the market. Inventory is smaller than ever and the buyers are making homes here beyond just summer.
Same discussion in Northern NJ where sister-in-law just sold her place. All prospective buyers coming from NY.
Only anecdotal but the story is the same.