I've had many conversations with officials in global companies. Manufacturing work and technology development is being redirected away from China solely because of Trump. (And work is returning to the US because of the roll back of commercial federal regulations, another behind the scenes project which has been proceeding since he was elected.)
If Biden is elected, the expectation is that the work that was going elsewhere will once again be able to flow freely into China.
What say the liberals and anti-Trumpers on this board? Are you OK with Biden saving China's economy and continuing the restarting the transfer of technology and jobs back to China?
Personally, I think we are in a race with China to see who collapses first. The Soviet Union bowed out of the race first. I figured we would be number two until Trump came along. But, if he doesn't get another year, we may be number two again, and the world will have to deal with China as the premier superpower for the next century or so.
Let's start with the premise that labor costs in China have been on the rise for a while. While labor costs are still great there, they aren't what they used to be, which itself contributes to the shift of work away to other nations in Southeast Asia, Mexico, and elsewhere. The articles you found also note that much of the shift from China has been to other countries in SE Asia, which, in fact, would have been even better for us had we stayed in the TPP deal. The articles also note that a large (if not the largest) driver is the Coronavirus pandemic.
Looking at long term interests - rising labor costs in China, the need for supply chain diversity, their IP policies - I would think companies are reacting to those more than the tariffs, which are not advertised to be long term anyway.
Finally, even if we were to assume that the Trump tariffs caused some of this movement, I'm not sure that means the policies are effective. Consider the COVID pandemic and lockdown policies as an analogy. There is no denying that a total lockdown reduces the spread. But would it be worth it to totally lockdown until there is a vaccine? Of course not, it is a delicate balance. Similarly, one has to balance costly trade war policies (analogous to a total lockdown) to incremental movement of some manufacturing away from China (analogous to reduced COVID spread).
I don't see a convincing case made for either causation, or value.
It was brilliant. Much shorter version:
-- Labor costs are rising in PRC, but only on coasts, and still are low. US companies were going inland in China, not elsewhere in Asia or back to the US.
-- TPP never discussed in boardrooms. I just never heard it mentioned except in the press. Tariffs were discussed immediately...meetings were called to discuss them. Global companies in both US and China immediately started shifting products which were sold in the US, to be made in the US.
-- China is 1st in world in infrastructure spending as a percentage of GDP. No one compares. This is a huge factor in why companies go there. This consideration overwhelms many other considerations
-- China gives amazing tax advantages to tech companies that agree to transfer patents to China companies, that make products covered by patents in China, and that develop innovation in China. This also is an important consideration that trumps the rising labor costs for tech companies.
-- Supply chain diversity can be found in China. SK and Japan corps are going elsewhere for the same geopolitical reasons I'm raising, and US companies sometimes follow them to supply them, but US and EU companies are much more likely to naively trust the leaders of China out of a vague sense that we are all the same. We aren't all the same. There is diversity in ethics just as there is diversity of language and skin color. Globalism was popular for many years, but even some liberals are starting to recognize that globalism has harmed the US worker.
It was obvious from the beginning that the ChiComs run a parasitic economy that was always going to live off of our creativity and steal away our employment opportunities... but we blinded ourselves to this ugly reality for momentary pluses in out balance sheets. Fortunately, we are nothing but flexible and are already beginning to diversify our supply chains. Of course, the NBA has no choice to kowtow since we have become bored watching a minstrel show in which grown men act as if bouncing a ball is something serious.
That is why they want our technology, not to stay behind, but to give their people a head start in leapfrogging us. Silicon Valley is a big target, and they are playing into the PRC's hands for a short term gain, as you point out.
I might also add that his Iran policy is working too, but that's a story for another thread.
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The 1980's is calling, and it wants the Left's conspiracy theories.
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the company will scale production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) used for the manufacture of key generic medicines.
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Link: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-kodak-pivots-itself-become-021309682.html
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Not for his family's wealth like the cyclopes in office.
Hunter's skills that supposedly "earned that"? Cocaine use?
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Given your secret insider information that isn’t being reported, I’ll just take yer word for it.
That outweighs all the statistical evidence that Trump botched the pandemic, which is by far the single most important issue of his presidency.
No idea who they support...and the ones from outside the US are certainly not supporters of either candidate.
The context was not the election, but how to best manage a global company.
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For now, absent Biden taking a strong line (which we both know is impossible for him to do...don't want to be xenophobic, after all), I would say that the US will be substantially weakened relative to China, both economically and militarily. They are growing at an alarming rate, and they have much greater resources than the US had before WWII.
reported.
I’m just taking in the whopper of the day.
You can choose to believe I'm making something up. That is certainly your prerogative.
Or, you can support the contention that Biden will be as hard on China as Trump has been. I think we both know that is very, very unlikely.
So, your best bet for the United States is to believe I'm making up a fake story.
If the electorate had sat in the meetings I've sat in, where companies are discussing plans to bolster non-China Asian countries as they downplay China, where they are moving jobs back to the heartland US (or at least canceling the transfer of jobs from the US to overseas), where they are looking to bring people into the US to do jobs that the Americans can do but are now stymied, where legal CLE "new developments" are almost invariably noted as "good for business"...if people knew what I know, they'd know Trump has done a lot to prepare the US against its greatest threat, China, and to save jobs from being taken from American workers.
Assume it is all true. Which media outlet do you think would waste time pointing that out.
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