It could happen, again.
Link: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/29/2020-polls-trump-biden-prediction-accurate-2016-433619
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For example 27,000 votes currently separate Trump and Clinton in Wisconsin, where 300,000 registered voters, according to a federal court, lacked strict forms of voter ID. Voter turnout in Wisconsin was at its lowest levels in 20 years and decreased 13 percent in Milwaukee, where 70 percent of the state’s African-American population lives.
Take Michigan for example. A state that Obama won in 2012 by 350,000 votes, Clinton lost by roughly 10,000. Why? She received 300,000 votes less than Obama did in 2012. Detroit and Wayne County should kick themselves because of the 595,253 votes they gave Obama in 2012, only 518,000 voted for Clinton in 2016. More than 75,000 Motown Obama voters did not bother to vote for Clinton. They did not become Trump voters – Trump received only 10,000 votes more than Romney did in this county.
That he has a “17 point lead”.
Most pollsters believe it doesn’t exist, and that Trump’s win was due to late-deciding voters breaking his way, decreased turnout among Hillary voters and higher-than-anticipated turnout in rural areas. In three states.
There were no “shy Trump voters” in other states, where polls were right.
They absolutely nailed it in NY, CA, MA, NJ, CT, etc.
They don’t show that this year.
I also enjoy the, "They were all within the margin of error," argument. Remind me the last time the pollsters and their defenders said, "We didn't really predict correctly, after all, all those states you think we predicted correctly, they were all within the margin of error."
And I'm giving Biden Michigan, even though I think Trump will get it.
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