this quote is from Fareed Zakaria's recent book "Ten Lessons For A Post-Pandemic World"...I haven't finished it yet, but couldn't help being impressed with the early insights and passing on a recommendation for it.
To go a little further with this particular paragraph from the book...
"...says Larry Brilliant, the American physician who helped eradicate smallpox forty-five years ago. What he means is that we may not be able to change the natural occurrences that produce disease in the first place, but through preparation, early action, and intelligent responses, we can quickly flatten its trajectory. In fact, the eradication of smallpox is a story that is only partly about science and mostly about extraordinary cooperation between rival superpowers and impressive execution across the globe."
Parenthetically, I recall a special program (PBS?) that chronicled the mass smallpox inoculations of Indian rural communities by international health workers to put the final nail in that pathogen's coffin.
My takeaway?...more international cooperation and infrastructure for dealing with such occurrences...
less name calling ("China Virus") and bashing of Int'l Orgs (e.g. WHO).
4M people at risk of death...400k die...the president didn't do enough...even though both sides are sponsoring & attending mass spreader events.
4M people at risk of death...50k die...the president didn't do enough...even though both sides are sponsoring & attending mass spreader events.
Doesn't matter what the numbers are.
discussion of how we adapt to our Post-Pandemic "New Normal"...I'm personally quite impressed with Fareed's book thus far and hope to share some additional excerpts with the board in the not-too-distant future. The recent reactions show me that nerves are still raw from the 2020 election, and anything that smacks of "politics" will get an immediate and emotional response...and I am now cautioned on that score.
So, with that said, what do you think of the quote and passage I posted?...also, what exactly do the numbers you put down mean to you?...I could guess, but I want to be in tune with your concerns.
That seems self-evident, and unnecessary to state. There is no insight there whatsoever.
Secondly, Covid-19 is more analogous to influenza than smallpox. It will not be eradicated like smallpox, regardless of international cooperation.
That's what I think of the passage you posted.
Then you asked, "what exactly do the numbers you put down mean to you?...I could guess, but I want to be in tune with your concerns." I don't have concerns, as much as I have observations. Not sure what you want to know when you ask "what exactly do the numbers...mean to [me]." People live, and people die...and those numbers will be used for political gain either way. We can diminish the number who die, but getting to zero is like approaching the speed of light: it gets more difficult to get to your goal the closer you get to your goal. Thus, some will die. So, you are left with how much effort does society want to expend, and therefore, how many deaths is society willing to tolerate. We can, for example, create a transportation system that eliminates automobile accidents. The only question is whether we want to change our lifestyles to allow that--once that system is described, almost everyone would say, "Oh hell no; I'm not living like that." We can try to prevent pandemics altogether, but is it worth it? Importantly, that is not a scientific question, and it can't be answered by scientists or doctors. It must be answered by (in our case) elected officials (and in China's case, by the Party).
Just to be clear on my use of the smallpox example...I'm not trying to draw a perfect parallel, just want to use that example in the same way as Fareed does, i.e. show how important - and doable - it is to marshall international resources to reduce, if not eliminate, the impact future pathogens which will absolutely recur. I join him in 'trumpeting' the call for increased cooperation - and trust in the professionals who have earned their stripes with smallpox, measles, etc...i.e. follow their advice and guidelines...even when they are "tweaked" as new knowledge is gained on a 'novel pathogen'. It appears to me that some folks, with zero background or understanding, want to sever relations with those proven services and subject everyone else (yet including themselves) to a much higher risk than needs be...make sense?
First off, you're obviously right in that achieving "zero fatalities" in not possible for many of the maladies that confront us...COVID-19 being one of them. This has never been even contemplated from all that I've seen. What I do see, and hear, from news reports, and first hand accounts from family doctors (you've heard me reference the ID and ICU Docs), is that our political and HC leaders are 'frightened' at the prospect of having hospital systems overrun with COVID patients, thereby squeezing out nearly all other serious or emergency treatments...I believe L.A. is very nearly there. So, aside from mortality numbers that already dwarf anything we seen since 1918, those are the numbers that jump out to them...they vary by locale, but they are real and finite...we only have so many doctors, nurses, specialty staff, etc.
The frustrating thing for them is that, as evidenced by China, South Korea, New Zealand and a few other countries, this fear needn't be there...if only we would band together and follow professional advice and counsel...understandably difficult in our diverse country, but we need to keep trying...'cause there's going to be more of this in the future.
More to your point though, short of an absolute lockdown like in a totalitarian nation such as China, containing the virus until a vaccine arrives (and hopefully taken by 75-80%) here in the U.S. is a lot like 'herding cats' because many citizens, left to their own devices/choices won't sit still and let the virus die (it only lasts about 3 days max outside the body of an infected person)...while it's not possible to achieve zero deaths, it's totally irresponsible to not take the only actions that will preserve hundreds of thousands of lives for some other day's toll, and those actions you already know...social distancing, mask wearing, etc. All we're missing right now is leadership, motivation and resolve.
You said, "show how important - and doable - it is to marshall international resources to reduce, if not eliminate, the impact future pathogens which will absolutely recur. I join him in 'trumpeting' the call for increased cooperation - and trust in the professionals who have earned their stripes with smallpox, measles, etc...i.e. follow their advice and guidelines..."
"and doable"? That is the crux.
When we talk about international cooperation, we cannot talk about it in an abstract/fantasy/academic sense. International cooperation happens in a very imperfect political world, based on rules of power not academic logic, by people who do not share the same goals and have no moral problem with hijacking an international effort for their own benefit. There is no such thing as real friendship among nations, and any plan that relies on nations to be nice to each other will necessarily fail. At best, we can trust but verify. And withdrawing from a corrupt international process is not necessarily an example of a lack of leadership.
You said, "It appears to me that some folks, with zero background or understanding, want to sever relations with those proven services"
What proven services? I assume you do not mean the World Health Organization, given how political they are.
You said, "...while it's not possible to achieve zero deaths, it's totally irresponsible to not take the only actions that will preserve hundreds of thousands of lives for some other day's toll, and those actions you already know...social distancing, mask wearing, etc. All we're missing right now is leadership, motivation and resolve."
And?...where do you hope to find that "leadership, motivation and resolve" in our free but failing society? How will you recognize it? Sending $4000 checks to people instead of $2000?...or only $600? Sending hospital beds and ventilators to a state, only to have them go unused, and then have the sender attacked for sending them? Blocking off the border?...or allowing all immigrants to come and providing free healthcare? (Note how no one wants to answer my poll question on immigration.) The key question is this: How will a consensus of all Americans recognize such leadership, and avoid attacking it for political gain? I personally don't think it is possible to have such leadership in America at this point.
A purely academic analysis of what is possible in a utopian world in which everyone (every person, every political party, every nation) sets aside selfish short term goals and cooperates to solve the problem...such an analysis is almost totally useless. An analysis can become useful when it shows how to solve the problem in the imperfect political world in which we actually live.
article describes, the WHO led the way from 1959 to the mid-1970s in marshaling global resources to achieve eradication of smallpox everywhere...and this was during the time that the USSR and Mao Tse-tung were aligned against us. In fact, the article below describes how the U.S. and the Soviets came together on this quest...one example is that we provided funding to help them produce 450M doses of smallpox vaccine...so cooperation can be achieved, because it happened before on a global scale. But your hesitancy is not unfounded...we were more cohesive then in our strategy formulation and execution, plus there was no "social media" and round the clock punditry for politicians to deal with, to name just a few distractions...so, I would acknowledge that the task is perhaps more daunting...but nowhere near "impossible".
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/08/27/the-us-cooperated-with-the-soviets-on-smallpox-it-should-do-the-same-with-china-on-covid-19-vaccine-distribution/
As for the "leadership" issue, we do have 'common ground'...everyone wants to get back to normal asap, so no one should be expected to stand in the way of vaccine distribution, testing or contact tracing when the new administration takes over. Based on Biden's choices for CDC Director (very highly regarded ID specialist (per our family ID Doc), Rochelle Walensky) and Chief of Staff, Ron Klain (Ebola Tsar), he'll have experienced, successful people in charge...this should be cause for optimism. We still have the best Docs and Specialists on the planet and the rest of the world is ready and waiting to work with us.
All we can do now is cheer them on and hope for the best...then get back to policy debates, which hopefully get done with the goal of seeing real "progress" instead of ideological "purity". I personally know about this first hand in my "lobbying" of my congressman on the energy (nuclear) issue...I'm making progress, based on staff member replies, but "it ain't over 'til it's over".
BTW, I tried to get use different colored text, but failed...what's your secret?...really like that touch.
Link: https://www.cdc.gov/smallpox/history/history.html
came from China, hence China Virus. Wuhan specifically. Problem with that?
to continue to name infectious diseases for the places they were thought to originate. Might hurt someone’s feelings.
Infectious diseases throughout history have been named for geographic locations where they were thought to have originated: Spanish flu (although there is some evidence it should have been named the Kansas Flu), West Nile virus, MERS ( Middle East Respiratory Syndrome), Zika and Ebola, to name a few.
I am sure people from Connecticut are distraught about being blamed for Lyme Disease. The Swedish people must be protesting “Stockholm Syndrome”. And you can bet the ASPCA will eventually try to get “Swine Flu” and “Avian Flu” stricken from the vocabulary.
We need to get more sensitive and woke.
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working on vaccine from day one", don't be surprised if someone questions what you mean by that. That was the genesis of the "China virus" admonition...you know, just in case there might have been a message beyond the mere identification of the virus's source location...
Once again, for your benefit, my thread topic spoke of the need for international cooperation, especially looking forward to the inevitability of new viral pathogens...some of which could emanate from China again. We need 'medical' boots on the ground there and constantly 'throwing shade' only on China is hardly productive to our own interests...does this make sense to you?...if not, please share your strategy.
You want to suck up to these slime balls? Be my guest. In fact, go the hell over there and criticize them. Hint- buy a one way ticket.
Jesus you are clueless.
after the virus was 'announced' and now we have vaccines in record time...a really good "slime ball" you'd think would have kept it hidden...granted, they do get 'slime ball points' for playing internal party politics for too long.
On a rational, practical level, we need to establish relations with them due to the near certainty that new viruses are going to emanate from the Far East, and very likely China. We need to have our own people stationed there - like the previous administration did - in order to have early warning and perhaps earlier genetic data...it is in our own best interest. To do that we have to find ways to "Suck Up" to "Slime Balls"...but hey, if Nixon was able to pull it off, why can't we?
You do understand the logic in this, don't you?
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China virus. It came from China, just like Ebola came from Ebola River. But u dont like it that some call it the China virus. Did I miss something?
"They started the virus"...to my ear, the word choice of "Started" implies an 'action' on the part of the Chinese government to initiate this virus...I asked if you believed this to be the case and you were non-committal...
The subsequent post is all about the need for international cooperation...and save for China's initial failure to "come clean", they have cooperated very well (e.g. quick dissemination of the genetic code for COVID-19)...and the 'trailer' takeaway was my attempt to encourage more support for that type of behavior...as opposed to what I would call the pejorative innuendo of "China Virus"...now I could be very wrong about that assessment, and those who speak in such terms are only trying to correctly identify the location of COVID-19's start with absolutely no intent to disparage China...only they know the answer to that question.
As for "China" in the broadest sense...they are a totalitarian government that is anathema to everything that a democracy like ours stands for...yet, they are being swayed our way by recognizing the positive values of Capitalism and becoming willing partners with us in the economic sphere. Hopefully, we will play our cards right by maintaining strong alliances with the democratic countries of the Pacific Rim (and all other countries of the world that interact with China) so as to give us leverage in dealing with them and helping them see the benefits of not only open markets, but also open societies like ours that support open discussions/disagreements...sort of like what we're doing...do we agree on this much?
BTW, I certainly don't care for China's ability and choice to use such force in restricting all movement by its citizens...nonetheless, those actions are stark examples of the logic and effectiveness behind our HC guidelines of "social distancing, mask wearing, etc."...if the U.S. populace would voluntarily join together and all follow those admonitions, we'd be celebrating New Years in Times Square too...but we're not and are now approaching 4,000 deaths per day.
Hope you avail yourself of Fareed Zakaria's book...I'll no doubt drop a few more passages for discussion purposes.
We have spent trillions on national defense...most of it wasted on imaginary threats.
If we had spent 2% of the defense budget on preparations for a pandemic, this could have been handled much differently.
Clinton fucked up, Bush fucked up, Obama fucked up.