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Link: Biden polls his worst yet — and headed lower
U.S. Gas Prices Hit a New High: $5 a Gallon
The unrelenting march higher continues as the average price touches a new milestone, according to AAA.
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The national average price of gas set new highs in June.
The national average price of gas set new highs in June.Credit...An Rong Xu for The New York Times
By Clifford Krauss and Marie Solis
June 11, 2022
Updated 5:02 a.m. ET
HOUSTON — Gasoline prices reached a grim milestone on Saturday, as the national average for regular gasoline reached $5 a gallon.
Summer gasoline is nearly always more expensive because demand for fuel takes off around Memorial Day weekend. But this year oil and refined fuel prices have risen to their highest levels in 14 years, due largely to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and resulting sanctions, and a rebound in energy use as the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.
The national average price of gasoline on Saturday was $5.00, up 60 cents from a month ago. A year ago, gas sold for $3.08, according to the AAA motor club. The national average has been at its highest point since March, when it went above its previous record set in July 2008, when oil was trading at more than $133 a barrel. That was more than ten dollars above the current level without even accounting for inflation. Back then, the national average gasoline price was $4.11, or about $5.37 a gallon in today’s dollars.
The average price is above $4 a gallon in all states. In California, long one of the most expensive states in the country for fuel, the price exceeds $6 a gallon. States with the largest recent increases in gasoline prices include Michigan, Delaware, Maryland and Colorado.
Energy experts estimate that every penny increase in the price of gasoline costs Americans an extra $4 million a day.
“Strap on for a sizzling summer ride,” said Tom Kloza, global head of energy analysis at Oil Price Information Service. “The average consumer is going to pay $450 a month for their fuel needs and that compares to something barely over $100 in 2020 during the pandemic.”
The war in Ukraine has had the most direct effect on gas prices, as sanctions on Russia have pulled more than a million barrels of oil off global markets. Energy traders have also bid up oil prices in anticipation that Russian production and exports will fall further.
But many other factors have contributed to the rise in prices.
There isn’t enough capacity to refine oil into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Oil companies closed a handful of refineries in recent years, especially during the pandemic when demand plummeted. A few new refineries will open or expand over the next year, which could help.
But for now, analysts say that strong demand for gasoline is straining limited supplies and pushing prices higher as drivers hit the road after several waves of new Covid-19 variants kept them close to home. The easing of stringent pandemic lockdowns in China has also pushed up oil prices.
The high gas prices — along with the rising costs for other necessities like food and shelter — are a big problem for President Biden. Many political experts believe the Democrats could suffer losses in the November elections because voters are angry and frustrated about high inflation. A report on Friday showed that consumer prices reaccelerated in May, rising 8.6 percent from a year earlier, the fastest pace in more than 40 years.
Last week, as gas prices edged closer to the $5 threshold, Biden administration officials said that the president would travel to Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest oil producers, in an apparent bid to restore diplomatic relations and, crucially, to seek help with bringing down energy prices. He is also encouraging domestic producers to pump more oil, although big oil companies are reluctant to increase investments significantly, preferring to return profits to investors through dividends and share buybacks.
In the past, when oil companies produced more oil in response to high prices, they caused a glut, undercutting their profits.
Mr. Biden has little influence on gas prices, which are governed by global supply and demand. Experts say even Saudi Arabia is not in a position to quickly bring down prices because it does not have the ability to completely offset the expected decline in Russian production. The European Union last month agreed to ban most Russian oil by the end of the year.
In March, when Mr. Biden announced that the United States was banning Russian oil and natural gas, he warned Americans that “defending freedom is going to cost.” There is some evidence that the high prices are beginning to have an impact on demand. Travel experts say that some people are choosing to drive shorter distances on their vacations.
Eventually the high prices at the pump are likely to encourage motorists to switch to electric cars, but the purchases of such cars are expected to reduce demand over the coming years, not months.
“It takes a while for price increases to affect demand,” said Donald Hertzmark, president of DMP Resources, a Washington-based energy consulting firm. “Consumers have to believe the price increases are real and permanent, and there has to be some period of adjustment to substitution, conservation and demand destruction.”
Clifford Krauss reported from Houston and Marie Solis reported from New York.
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OPINION
GUEST ESSAY
There Is Way More Biden Can Do to Lower Prices
June 2, 2022
Credit...Brendan Smialowski/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
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By Ro Khanna
Mr. Khanna, a Democrat, represents the 17th District of California in the U.S. House.
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Lupe Lopez, a grocery store owner in my district in California, recently showed me how devastating inflation has been for her and her customers. Milk cost $4.95 a gallon, an increase of 38 percent since 2019, and tortilla packets were $3.07, up by 24 percent. During my visit, I met a first-time parent who said he drove to three different stores to find baby formula. A mother of five children told me she could no longer afford milk for her teenagers. Inflation is spiking and causing real pain and hardship in my community and across our country.
How did we get here? More than two years of a devastating pandemic led to slowdowns in the production and delivery of goods. This was made somewhat worse by supply uncertainties brought about by Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. We also have excess demand relative to supply because of fiscal and monetary policies that were implemented to prevent a severe recession. As the saying goes, we have “too much money chasing too few goods.”
At this point, no one wants to hear politicians bicker about inflation’s cause. They want to hear about how we can fix it.
President Biden recently outlined his ideas to address inflation. I support the president’s efforts, but we need a bolder vision and faster action. Ms. Lopez and my constituents expect the government to get prices back under control, and they want us to do it quickly.
To meet the moment, Mr. Biden should convene an emergency task force empowered to lower prices and address shortages. We need an all-out mobilization, not just a few ad hoc initiatives reacting to headlines. The task force should include relevant cabinet members like Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg and Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm. It should also have state and local officials, along with business and labor leaders from sectors experiencing significant inflation.
The most urgent goal of this task force would be to lower and stabilize short-term prices of volatile goods like food and fuel. We can do this through pre-emptive buying, a tool we’ve used since World War II. The Department of Agriculture should purchase essential food products on the global market during significant price dips, which often occur multiple times a month or even every week, and resell them cheaply to Americans. The department should contract with private wholesalers for distribution, as it has done for decades to avoid storage or logistical challenges. Because the government would be buying and selling large quantities of food when they are cheapest, this would lower and stabilize prices for key grocery store products within weeks.
Although continuous government purchasing can increase aggregate demand, buying only during the dips will neutralize price volatility and lock in low prices. Economists call this smoothing. Only the federal government is large enough to do it. This won’t involve anything like price controls that violate market fundamentals. Our executive branch has the authority to do this: Presidents from Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan to Barack Obama and Donald Trump have instructed the Department of Agriculture to spend billions on dairy purchases to influence prices.
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Similarly, the Department of Energy should buy petroleum on the global market during price dips to resell it more cheaply to Americans during subsequent spikes. It may not feel like it now, but the price of fuel does dip. The department should do this for all essential fuels, including home heating oil and natural gas through the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The S.P.R. legislation places no quantitative limits on the authority of Mr. Biden or Secretary Granholm to sell from the reserve in response to declared energy supply disruptions or to replenish supplies. We can go orders of magnitude beyond the president’s current sale of one million barrels per day, which amounts to only 5 percent of current daily use and still helped lower prices by 4 to 5 percent.
The task force must address the needs of young families as well, who see empty shelves when looking to feed their newborns. We should have anticipated this in February when Abbott closed its infant formula plant. In addition to what the president has ordered to supply ingredients and transport formula, we must finance the production of baby formula itself at multiple manufacturers to get the product back in stores as fast as possible.
The government should also purchase surplus baby formula in large quantities from Europe and create a mutual recognition system; formula safe for babies in Europe is also safe for American babies. If we could go from making fewer than 1,000 warplanes before World War II to 96,000 per year just a few years later, we can have enough baby formula to meet the need within two months.
Next, the task force should leverage public sector strengths to deliver other supplies Americans need. The president set a good precedent by mobilizing the military for Operation Fly Formula. The National Guard and other military units should be deployed to address immediate worker shortages that have left container ships stuck at sea and warehouses overflowing.
To recruit new workers, we must issue clear regulations to permanently improve their working conditions and provide generous wage subsidies for American workers during the shortages. This is a familiar idea; we currently spend billions on farm subsidies to boost and maintain crop production. We can afford to invest in agricultural and transportation workers to increase the supply of critical products.
Congress has a role to play in the long run, too. We should pass the Bipartisan Innovation Act before the end of June so that America can manufacture more semiconductors for our cars and laptops. This would be the first step in a lasting commitment to a national economic strategy of re-industrialization, of becoming a producing nation again. To remain the pre-eminent economy, we need enough capacity to handle supply chain disruptions without entire industries being upended.
There is no patience for incrementalism or political spin about economic numbers in these times. Democrats can’t just blame the Republicans for lacking a plan. People elected us to solve problems. We told them that government could improve their lives and they want to see tangible action, movement and energy out of Washington.
Let’s reject the orthodoxy that makes us timid and dilatory about government intervention and show that our government is still capable of decisive action when it comes to both demand and supply.
White House Struggles to Talk About the ‘Problem From Hell’
Inflation is upending voter confidence and posing a glaring political liability that looms over the Biden administration’s major policy decisions.
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President Biden regularly talks about the pain inflation is inflicting on households as rising prices pose a political risk.
President Biden regularly talks about the pain inflation is inflicting on households as rising prices pose a political risk.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times
Zolan Kanno-YoungsJeanna Smialek
By Zolan Kanno-Youngs and Jeanna Smialek
June 8, 2022
WASHINGTON — President Biden was at a private meeting discussing student debt forgiveness this year when, as happens uncomfortably often these days, the conversation came back to inflation.
“He said with everything he does, Republicans are going to attack him and use the word ‘inflation,’” said Representative Tony Cárdenas, Democrat of California, referring to Mr. Biden’s meeting with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus in April. Mr. Cárdenas said Mr. Biden was aware he would be attacked over rising prices “no matter what issue we’re talking about.”
The comment underscored how today’s rapid price increases, the fastest since the 1980s, pose a glaring political liability that looms over every major policy decision the White House makes — leaving Mr. Biden and his colleagues on the defensive as officials discover that there is no good way to talk to voters about inflation.
The administration has at times splintered internally over how to discuss price increases and has revised its inflation-related message several times as talking points fail to resonate and new data comes in. Some Democrats in Congress have urged the White House to strike a different — and more proactive — tone ahead of the November midterm elections.
But the reality the White House faces is a hard one: There is little politicians can do to quickly bring price increases to heel. Federal Reserve policy is the nation’s main solution to inflation, but the central bank tempers price gains by making money more expensive to borrow to cool off demand, a slow and potentially painful process for the economy.
“For a president, inflation is the problem from hell — you can’t win,” said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and the founding director of the Center for Effective Public Management. “Because it’s so difficult economically, politically it is even worse: There’s nothing you can do in the short run to solve it.”
Consumer prices increased by 8.3 percent in the year through April, and data on Friday showed inflation at 8.6 percent in May. Inflation averaged 1.6 percent annual gains in the five years leading up to the pandemic, making today’s pace of increase painfully high by comparison. A gallon of gas, one of the most tangible household costs, hit a national average of $4.99 this week. Consumer confidence has plummeted as families pay more for everyday purchases and as the Fed raises interest rates to cool the economy, which increases the risk of a recession.
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A gallon of gas surpassed $5 at a Sunoco station in Sloatsburg, N.Y., last month.
A gallon of gas surpassed $5 at a Sunoco station in Sloatsburg, N.Y., last month.Credit...An Rong Xu for The New York Times
The White House has long realized that rising prices could sink Mr. Biden’s support, with that risk telegraphed in a series of confidential memos sent to Mr. Biden last year by one of his lead pollsters, John Anzalone. Inflation has only continued to fuel frustration among voters, according to a separate memo compiled by Mr. Anzalone’s team last month, which showed the president’s low approval rating on the economy rivaling only his approach to immigration.
“Economic sentiment among the public remains poor, with most worried about both inflation and the possibility of a recession in the coming months,” according to the memo, dated May 20. The information was sent to “interested parties,” and it was not clear if the White House had received or reviewed the memo.
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The polling data shows that about eight in 10 Americans “consider the national economy to be in poor condition” and that “concerns are high about the potential for an economic recession in the near future.”
Economic anxieties have been echoed by members of Congress, leading academics and pop culture standard bearers. “When y’all think they going to announce that we going into a recession?” Cardi B, the Grammy-winning rapper, wrote in a tweet that went viral this weekend.
The White House knows it is in a tricky position, and the administration’s approach to explaining inflation has evolved over time. Officials spent the early stages of the current price burst largely describing price pressures as temporary.
When it became clear that rising costs were lasting, administration officials began to diverge internally on how to frame that phenomenon. While it was clear that much of the upward pressure on prices came from supply chain shortages exacerbated by continued waves of the coronavirus, some of it also tied back to strong consumer demand. That big spending had been enabled, in part, by the government’s stimulus packages, including direct checks to households, expanded unemployment insurance and other benefits.
Some economists in the White House have begun to emphasize that inflation was a trade-off: To the extent that Mr. Biden’s stimulus spending spurred more inflation, it also aided economic growth and a faster recovery.
“Inflation is absolutely a problem, and it’s critical to address it,” Janet L. Yellen, the Treasury secretary, recently told members of Congress. “But I think at the same time, we should recognize how successful that plan was in leading to an economy where instead of having a large number of workers utterly unable to find jobs, exactly the opposite is true.”
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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said she supports relaxing tariffs on Chinese goods to ease prices.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said she supports relaxing tariffs on Chinese goods to ease prices.Credit...Jason Andrew for The New York Times
But the president’s more political aides have tended to sharply minimize that the March 2021 package, known as the American Rescue Plan, helped to goose inflation, even as they have claimed credit for strong economic growth.
“Some have a curious obsession with exaggerating impact of the Rescue Plan while ignoring the degree high inflation is global,” Gene Sperling, a senior White House adviser overseeing the implementation of the stimulus package, wrote on Twitter last week, adding that the law “has had very marginal impact on inflation.”
Brian Deese, the director of the National Economic Council, acknowledged in an interview last week that there were some disagreements among White House economic officials when it came to how to talk about and respond to inflation, but he portrayed that as a positive — and as something that is not leading to any kind of dysfunction.
“If there wasn’t healthy disagreement, debate and people feeling comfortable bringing issues and ideas to the table, then I think we would be not serving the president and the public interest well,” he said.
He also pushed back on the idea that the administration was deeply divided on the March 2021 package’s aftereffects, saying in a separate emailed comment that “there is agreement across the administration that many factors contributed to inflation, and that inflation has been driven by elevated demand and constrained supply across the globe.”
How to portray the Biden administration’s stimulus spending is far from the only challenge the White House faces. As price increases last, Democrats have grappled with how to discuss their plans to combat them.
The president and his top political aides have trotted out a few main talking points, including blaming President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine for what Mr. Biden calls the “Putin price hike,” pointing to deficit reduction as a way to lower inflation and arguing that Republicans have a bad plan to deal with rising costs. Mr. Biden regularly acknowledges the pain that higher prices are causing and has emphasized that the problem of taming inflation rests largely with the Fed, an independent entity whose work he has promised not to interfere with.
The administration has also highlighted that inflation is widespread globally, and that the United States is better off than many other nations.
Student Loans: Key Things to Know
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Corinthian Colleges. In its largest student loan forgiveness action ever, the Education Department said that it would wipe out $5.8 billion owed by 560,000 students who attended Corinthian Colleges, one of the nation’s biggest for-profit college chains before it collapsed in 2015.
New sources of aid. The Education Department will use one-time waivers and adjustments to retroactively credit millions of borrowers with additional payments toward loan forgiveness. The move will help people seeking to have their loans eliminated under the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program and through the use of income-driven repayment plans.
Payments delayed again. President Biden pushed the restart date for federal student loan payments to Sept. 1, extending a pause put in place at the start of the pandemic. Millions of borrowers who have defaulted on their federal student loans will also get a fresh start and have their loans restored to good standing.
The cost of private loans. As the Fed changes its benchmark rate, private student loan borrowers should expect to pay more, as both fixed and variable rate loans are linked to benchmarks that track the federal funds rate.
The renewed messaging comes as Mr. Biden and his top aides have grown increasingly concerned about the public’s negative views of the economy, according to an administration official. Economists within the administration are more sidelined when it comes to setting the tone on issues like inflation than in previous White Houses, another person familiar with the discussions said.
So far, the talking points have done little to change public perception or to mollify concerns on Capitol Hill, where some Democrats are pushing for the White House to find a more compelling story.
“There has to be more of a laser focus on the economy, a bolder message, a clearer story,” said Representative Ro Khanna, a California Democrat who wrote a New York Times opinion piece last week saying that Democrats need a more ambitious plan for fighting inflation. He added that “rhetoric about ‘Well, we’re doing really well’ does not capture the profound sense of anxiety that Americans feel.”
Part of the difficulty is that there is only so much politicians can do to fight price increases.
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The Port of Los Angeles in February. While much of the upward pressure on prices has come from supply chain shortages, some of it is also tied to strong consumer demand.
The Port of Los Angeles in February. While much of the upward pressure on prices has come from supply chain shortages, some of it is also tied to strong consumer demand.Credit...Mark Abramson for The New York Times
The White House has taken steps to blunt the impact of inflation or to help supply catch up with demand. It has released strategic petroleum reserves to help slow gas price increases and pushed to unclog ports, for example.
Most of the tweaks are helping only around the edges. Yet inflation factors into the discussion over every decision the White House entertains.
This spring, Mr. Biden suspended a ban on summertime sales of higher-ethanol gasoline blends to try to temper price increases at the pump, spurring frustration among climate activists still angry over the collapse of the president’s climate and social-spending package.
Talks over whether to roll back Trump-era tariffs on Chinese goods have also gotten caught in the inflation maw. Ms. Yellen has said she supports relaxing tariffs to help ease prices, but other Democrats are wary that removing them would make Mr. Biden look weak on China.
Inflation is also influencing conversations about whether to forgive student loan debt, one of Mr. Biden’s key campaign promises. Economists in the administration think that loan forgiveness would, at most, push inflation up a little bit by giving people with outstanding student debt more financial wiggle room. But some economists in the administration’s orbit have expressed concern about the possibility of doing something that could stimulate demand — even slightly — at a moment when it is already hot.
To help mute the inflationary effect, forgiveness would most likely be accompanied by a resumption of interest payments on all student loans that have been paused since the pandemic.
For now, the administration is considering forgiving at least $10,000 for borrowers in a certain income range, according to people familiar with the matter. Mr. Cárdenas said that Mr. Biden knew he would be attacked over inflation but that he did not think the issue would prevent the president from canceling at least $10,000 worth of debt.
“Will it affect him going beyond that? It may,” he said.
Jonathan Martin contributed reporting.
Should Biden Run in 2024? Democratic Whispers of ‘No’ Start to Rise.
In interviews, dozens of frustrated Democratic officials, members of Congress and voters expressed doubts about the president’s ability to rescue his reeling party and take the fight to Republicans.
Reid J. EpsteinJennifer Medina
By Reid J. Epstein and Jennifer Medina
June 11, 2022
Updated 3:20 p.m. ET
Midway through the 2022 primary season, many Democratic lawmakers and party officials are venting their frustrations with President Biden’s struggle to advance the bulk of his agenda, doubting his ability to rescue the party from a predicted midterm trouncing and increasingly viewing him as an anchor that should be cut loose in 2024.
As the challenges facing the nation mount and fatigued base voters show low enthusiasm, Democrats in union meetings, the back rooms of Capitol Hill and party gatherings from coast to coast are quietly worrying about Mr. Biden’s leadership, his age and his capability to take the fight to former President Donald J. Trump a second time.
Interviews with nearly 50 Democratic officials, from county leaders to members of Congress, as well as with disappointed voters who backed Mr. Biden in 2020, reveal a party alarmed about Republicans’ rising strength and extraordinarily pessimistic about an immediate path forward.
“To say our country was on the right track would flagrantly depart from reality,” said Steve Simeonidis, a Democratic National Committee member from Miami. Mr. Biden, he said, “should announce his intent not to seek re-election in ’24 right after the midterms.”
Democrats’ concerns come as the opening hearing of the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol made clear the stakes of a 2024 presidential election in which Mr. Trump, whose lies fueled a riot that disrupted the peaceful transfer of power, may well seek to return to the White House.
For Mr. Biden and his party, the hearings’ vivid reminder of the Trump-inspired mob violence represents perhaps the last, best chance before the midterms to break through with persuadable swing voters who have been more focused on inflation and gas prices. If the party cannot, it may miss its final opportunity to hold Mr. Trump accountable as Mr. Biden faces a tumultuous two years of a Republican-led House obstructing and investigating him.
Most top elected Democrats were reluctant to speak on the record about Mr. Biden’s future, and no one interviewed expressed any ill will toward Mr. Biden, to whom they are universally grateful for ousting Mr. Trump from office.
But the repeated failures of his administration to pass big-ticket legislation on signature Democratic issues, as well as his halting efforts to use the bully pulpit of the White House to move public opinion, have left the president with sagging approval ratings and a party that, as much as anything, seems to feel sorry for him.
That has left Democratic leaders struggling to explain away a series of calamities for the party that all seem beyond Mr. Biden’s control: inflation rates unseen in four decades, surging gas prices, a lingering pandemic, a spate of mass shootings, a Supreme Court poised to end the federal right to an abortion, and key congressional Democrats’ refusal to muscle through the president’s Build Back Better agenda or an expansion of voting rights.
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Rising inflation has increased prices of groceries and other everyday goods for voters, in a worry for Democrats.
Rising inflation has increased prices of groceries and other everyday goods for voters, in a worry for Democrats.Credit...Saul Loeb/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Worries about age, and a successor
To nearly all the Democrats interviewed, the president’s age — 79 now, 82 by the time the winner of the 2024 election is inaugurated — is a deep concern about his political viability. They have watched as a commander in chief who built a reputation for gaffes has repeatedly rattled global diplomacy with unexpected remarks that were later walked back by his White House staff, and as he has sat for fewer interviews than any of his recent predecessors.
“The presidency is a monstrously taxing job and the stark reality is the president would be closer to 90 than 80 at the end of a second term, and that would be a major issue,” said David Axelrod, the chief strategist for Barack Obama’s two winning presidential campaigns.
“Biden doesn’t get the credit he deserves for steering the country through the worst of the pandemic, passing historic legislation, pulling the NATO alliance together against Russian aggression and restoring decency and decorum to the White House,” Mr. Axelrod added. “And part of the reason he doesn’t is performative. He looks his age and isn’t as agile in front of a camera as he once was, and this has fed a narrative about competence that isn’t rooted in reality.”
Understand the June 7 Primary Election
By showing little enthusiasm for progressive and Trumpian candidates alike, voters in seven states showed the limits of the ideologies of both parties.
Takeaways: For all the talk of sweeping away the old order, the primaries on June 7 largely saw the establishment striking back. Here’s what else we learned.
Winners and Losers: Here is a rundown of some of the most notable wins and losses.
California Races: The recall of a progressive prosecutor showed the shifting winds on criminal justice. In Los Angeles, Rick Caruso and Representative Karen Bass are heading to a runoff mayoral election.
New Mexico’s Governor Race: Mark Ronchetti, a former television meteorologist, has won New Mexico’s Republican nomination for governor.
Mr. Biden has repeatedly said that he expects to run again in 2024. But if he does not, there is little consensus about who would lead the party.
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Vice President Kamala Harris, left, with Katherine Tai, the U.S. trade representative, at the White House in May. If Mr. Biden does not run in 2024, Ms. Harris is seen as likely to jump into the race, but she would probably have competition.
Vice President Kamala Harris, left, with Katherine Tai, the U.S. trade representative, at the White House in May. If Mr. Biden does not run in 2024, Ms. Harris is seen as likely to jump into the race, but she would probably have competition.Credit...Pete Marovich for The New York Times
Few Democrats interviewed expect that high-profile leaders with White House ambitions would defer to Vice President Kamala Harris, who has had a series of political hiccups of her own in office.
These Democrats mentioned a host of other figures who lost to Mr. Biden in the 2020 primary: Senators Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Cory Booker of New Jersey; Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg; and Beto O’Rourke, the former congressman who is now running for Texas governor, among others.
Mr. Biden’s supporters insist he has the country on the right track, despite the obstacles.
“Only one person steered a transition past Trump’s lies and court challenges and insurrection to take office on Jan. 20: Joe Biden,” said Anita Dunn, a senior adviser to the president, citing strong jobs numbers and efforts to combat the pandemic.
Other Biden allies dismissed suggestions that any other Democrat would do better than him in 2024.
“This is the same hand-wringing that we heard about Barack Obama in 2010 and 2011,” said Ben LaBolt, who worked on Mr. Obama’s campaigns.
Cristóbal Alex, who was a senior adviser for the Biden campaign and was the deputy cabinet secretary in the White House until last month, said Mr. Biden was the only Democrat who could win a national election.
Mr. Alex said it was the responsibility of congressional Democrats to highlight Mr. Biden’s successes and pass legislation he, and most of them, campaigned on.
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Cristóbal Alex, a former senior adviser to the Biden campaign, said the president was the only Democrat who could win a national election.
Cristóbal Alex, a former senior adviser to the Biden campaign, said the president was the only Democrat who could win a national election.Credit...Shuran Huang for The New York Times
“I am worried that leaders in the party aren’t more aggressively touting the success of the administration,” he said. “The narrative needs to shift, and that can only happen with a powerful echo chamber combined with action in Congress on remaining priorities. The American people feel unsettled.”
Nikki Fried, the Florida agriculture commissioner who is running for governor, said she would welcome Mr. Biden to campaign with her in Florida, but stopped short of endorsing him for a second term. “There is a lot of time between now and 2024,” she said.
Still, public polling shows that Mr. Biden is at a low point in his popularity among Democratic voters. A survey last month from The Associated Press found Mr. Biden’s approval among his fellow party members at 73 percent — the lowest point in his presidency, and nine points lower than at any point in 2021. There is little recent public polling asking if Democrats want Mr. Biden to seek a second term, but in January just 48 percent of Democrats wanted him to run again, according to The A.P.’s polling.
‘We’re lacking in the excitement’
Elected Democrats are cautious about openly discussing Mr. Biden’s future.
“I’m not allowed to have feelings right now,” said Jasmine Crockett, a Texas state representative who last month won a primary runoff for a heavily Democratic House seat based in Dallas. “When you’re an incoming freshman, you just don’t get to.”
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Jasmine Crockett, a Texas state representative who is likely to head to Congress next year, said Democrats needed to do more to build enthusiasm among voters.
Jasmine Crockett, a Texas state representative who is likely to head to Congress next year, said Democrats needed to do more to build enthusiasm among voters.Credit...Emil Lippe for The New York Times
Still, Ms. Crockett lamented a stark enthusiasm gap between Republicans, who in Texas have passed legislation to restrict voting rights and abortion rights while expanding gun rights, and Democrats, who have not used their narrow control of the federal government to advance a progressive agenda.
“Democrats are like, ‘What the hell is going on?’” Ms. Crockett said. “Our country is completely falling apart. And so I think we’re lacking in the excitement.”
Many Democratic leaders and voters want Mr. Biden to fight harder against Republicans, while others want him to seek more compromise. Many of them are eyeing 2024 hoping for some sort of idealized nominee — somebody who isn’t Mr. Biden or Ms. Harris.
Hurting Mr. Biden the most, said Faiz Shakir, who was campaign manager for Mr. Sanders in 2020, is a perception of weakness.
Mr. Shakir circulated a memo in April stating that Mr. Sanders “has not ruled out” running in 2024 if Mr. Biden does not. In an interview, Mr. Shakir said he believed that Mr. Biden could beat Mr. Trump a second time — but that if Republicans nominate a newer face, like Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, Mr. Biden may not be the best choice.
“If it’s DeSantis or somebody, I think that would be a different kind of a challenge,” Mr. Shakir said.
Understand the 2022 Midterm Elections
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Why are these midterms so important? This year’s races could tip the balance of power in Congress to Republicans, hobbling President Biden’s agenda for the second half of his term. They will also test former President Donald J. Trump’s role as a G.O.P. kingmaker. Here’s what to know:
What are the midterm elections? Midterms take place two years after a presidential election, at the midpoint of a presidential term — hence the name. This year, a lot of seats are up for grabs, including all 435 House seats, 35 of the 100 Senate seats and 36 of 50 governorships.
What do the midterms mean for Biden? With slim majorities in Congress, Democrats have struggled to pass Mr. Biden’s agenda. Republican control of the House or Senate would make the president’s legislative goals a near-impossibility.
What are the races to watch? Only a handful of seats will determine if Democrats maintain control of the House over Republicans, and a single state could shift power in the 50-50 Senate. Here are 10 races to watch in the House and Senate, as well as several key governor’s contests.
When are the key races taking place? The primary gauntlet is already underway. Closely watched races in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia were held in May, with more taking place through the summer. Primaries run until September before the general election on Nov. 8.
Go deeper. What is redistricting and how does it affect the midterm elections? How does polling work? How do you register to vote? We’ve got more answers to your pressing midterm questions here.
Howard Dean, the 73-year-old former Vermont governor and Democratic National Committee chairman who ran for president in 2004, has long called for a younger generation of leaders in their 30s and 40s to rise in the party. He said he had voted for Pete Buttigieg, 40, in the 2020 primary after trying to talk Senator Chris Murphy, 48, of Connecticut into running.
“The generation after me is just a complete trash heap,” Mr. Dean said.
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Mr. Biden discussing gun control legislation with Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, whom some Democrats have floated as a possible presidential contender in the future.
Mr. Biden discussing gun control legislation with Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, whom some Democrats have floated as a possible presidential contender in the future.Credit...Doug Mills/The New York Times
Mr. Biden and other older Democratic leaders in Washington, Mr. Dean said, have spent far too much time articulating goals that they have not reached.
“We need to have specific examples of how we’re dealing with things; it can’t just be pie-in-the-sky and kumbaya,” he said.
Many Democratic voters feel similarly. Lamenting “a great national loss of hope,” Alex Wyshyvanuk, 33, a data analyst from Annapolis, Md., said he wasn’t sold on another Biden presidential campaign in 2024.
“I need an equivalent of Ron DeSantis, a Democrat, but not a 70- or 80-year-old — a younger person,” he said. “Someone who knows what worked for you in 1980 is not going to work for you in 2022 or 2024.”
Regret and anxiety
And then there are the questions about Mr. Biden’s inability to persuade centrist Democratic senators to back his agenda. With the prospect looming of a Republican majority in at least one chamber of Congress next year, Democrats who have been in a similar position of holding fleeting control of government are nervous that past mistakes will be repeated.
Elizabeth Guzmán, a member of the Virginia House of Delegates, said Democrats in her caucus regret not passing a sweeping abortion rights law last year before they lost control of the state House and governor’s mansion to Republicans.
“We wanted to codify Roe vs. Wade, and look what happened,” she said.
Judy Vidal, 58, a retail worker from Cape Coral, Fla., echoed that sentiment.
“I just wish that since we have the majority now they would have behaved the way Republicans did and push things through,” she said.
The anxiety about Mr. Biden extends to the core of his political base. Adrianne Shropshire, the executive director of BlackPAC, an African American political organizing group, said her chief concern was that Black voters, having watched Mr. Biden and Democrats fail to deliver on core promises, don’t come back to vote in November.
“Does this frustration and the malaise and the worry and the fear, does that translate into an ongoing enthusiasm gap, and does that cause people to feel like their participation doesn’t make significant change?” she said. “That’s the real question.”
Even some of the earliest supporters of Mr. Biden’s 2020 campaign are now questioning whether he can lead the party through another daunting election cycle against Mr. Trump.
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Ann Hart is a co-chairwoman of the Democratic Party of Allamakee County, Iowa. Of Mr. Biden’s age, 79, she said, “I get asked to run for things — are you kidding? I’m 64.”
Ann Hart is a co-chairwoman of the Democratic Party of Allamakee County, Iowa. Of Mr. Biden’s age, 79, she said, “I get asked to run for things — are you kidding? I’m 64.”Credit...Tim Gruber for The New York Times
Ann Hart, a Democratic Party co-chairwoman in Iowa’s Allamakee County, endorsed Mr. Biden ahead of the state’s 2020 caucuses and introduced him at a campaign stop in a neighboring county. Ms. Hart, a retired school principal, said she could not imagine how Mr. Biden manages the presidency at 79 years old.
“I get asked to run for things — are you kidding? I’m 64,” she said. “We need youth. So I kind of admire him wanting to take this on and I hope he’ll pass the torch.”
Shelia Huggins, a lawyer from Durham, N.C., who is a member of the Democratic National Committee, put it more bluntly.
“Democrats need fresh, bold leadership for the 2024 presidential race,” she said. “That can’t be Biden.”