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This article reflects what our family Econ expert's company is saying as well...no recession expected, but slow growth into 2023...also, check out the NY Fed link in the attached article for their assessment and outlook.
Link: https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/13/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
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with a good response...am I right?...don't give up so easily.
Then ask him to tell you what it means.
member of a worldwide consulting firm that will be telling their clients exactly what I told you...
Again, go back and read the article I included, as well as the embedded NY Red link, which I've copied for your convenience.
Let's continue to seek the truth...the 'Whole' truth.
Link: https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2022/20220711
But I guarantee I know more about the current economic situation than your senior member of a consulting firm and/or you.
All year long, I have been giving you information that would have made or saved you a fortune if you had paid heed.
recognized/sought firm...what are your comments about the article and NY Fed paper I provided?
The Fed is absolutely committed to getting that number down. They are doing that in three ways. They are hiking the federal funds rate. The market is now pricing in a 100 basis point hike at the end of this month. Additionally, it is pricing in a 75 basis point hike in September. This is heavy artillery, but it is not the only thing happening. The Fed is shrinking it’s massively bloated balance sheet. That means that banks are going to have to resume doing the heavy lifting of putting mortgages or treasuries on their own balance sheet or packaging them in a way that will be attractive to other investors. The third thing the Fed is doing is speaking in extremely resolute terms about the need to get inflation down as their only goal. Powell was QUITE clear in his last press conference that a soft landing was likely unattainable.
The bond market is screaming about an impending recession. The yield curve is now heavily inverted. This is probably the single best predictor of recession that we have ever found. Of course, we already know that real growth in the entire first half of the year was almost certainly negative. That is the technical definition of a recession. The 20% fall in the stock market does nothing but confirm that.
In short, your economist friend is absolutely delusional if he thinks there is little risk on a recession. It is already upon us. Please give him my best wishes for whatever career he chooses to pursue after this year.
Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Democrats are going to be victimized by probably the worst showing in a midterm election in the last 150 years. I advise you to lay back and try to enjoy it.
it's at 3.6% right now, so a bit early to make any calls...also, as the appended CRS Report states in their closing remarks...
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The broad direction of the economy since 2020 has been driven by factors outside the Fed’s (or federal government’s) control—namely, supply disruptions caused first by the pandemic and, more recently, by war in Ukraine. Until the pandemic ends, the path of the economy will remain unpredictable. A soft or hard landing could occur because of outside events instead of any action by the Fed. For example, a rapid resolution of supply disruptions would ease inflationary pressures and boost growth, making a soft landing more likely. Alternatively, if supply constraints take longer to resolve, at that point a soft landing may not be possible because expectations of high inflation have already become endemic.
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Oh, and once again..."Core Inflation" has recently decreased...solve the "Putin Problem" and we're in for a "Soft Landing"...unless enough folks get riled up so they make Inflation/Recession expectations "Endemic"...just a thought.
Link: https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11963
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