If you're looking for a top 10 class this year, I don't see it happening, unless someone big pops up we don't know about yet. Notre Dame had three guys rated higher than this years top rated commit, and four guys rated higher than the second highest rated this season. The top end recruits just aren't there. And 2018 finished right at #10.
That said, the highest rated players this year are where you want them, and they've hit on the guys at the top of their board. So if you're into that, they're doing really well. If you're into rankings, you're going to be upset.
elite level.
i understand that they have their own recruiting board, but when a wr Michael Floyd or Rocket comes along, you have to go for them. i think Kelly is suffering from getting last minute #2 finishes in recruiting, and also from getting disappointed with results of the ones that we have landed. But he needs to suck it up like every other coach, and keep trying - at least at those skill positions.
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If a five star player is really interested, they aren't going to turn them away. I think his idea is to not chase a pipe dream all throughout the process for a guy who is a high risk not to last with the program. The opportunity cost of not pursuing other players, or turning down players while holding a scholarship till the last minute for the star, could be too much for Kelly, given the return on investment.
But, then you wonder if he would have gone through the trouble Weis did for someone like Manti. His philosophy being what it is, he's put a larger premium on the coaching these guys are going to get, because against teams like USC, or Florida State, those teams will have more talent on the field. Successful against USC last year, not so against Miami. Or Georgia. We'll see.
My metric isn't 5*, I go with top 50 composite. But to your point, in order to have a shot at a NC you need 1-2 of those per class.
Kraemer (success)
Wimbush (success)
Bryant (RIP)
Koyack (success, although didn't live up to his billing)
Tuitt (success)
None in '17 or '18.
So that's 11 top 50 players (five stars included) in 9 classes. About 50% success rate, which is basically, did they stay in school.
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They've signed 21 top 50 players over that span. Notre Dame is at 11. So it certainly is a difference. Swinney has also been a much better coach over that time frame. When they started their run, they didn't have the type of talent that Ohio State and Alabama have had. And he brought in Brent Venables around the time Kelly brought in VanGorder. So yeah.