Is ND really a lock for the playoffs?
Maybe it's just my ND fan persecution complex, but there aren't a lot of "friends" on the committee. Should also point out that both OK and OSU's ADs sit on the committee.
If you look at fivethirtyeight's CFP prediction model, ND has only a 77% chance to make playoffs. If Clemson, OSU and OK all win out, here's how it shakes out:
ALA/UGA 99%
CLEM 99%
OSU 70%
OK 68%
ND 62%
Replies to: Is ND really a lock for the playoffs?
Yes
Silver down played the algorithm on Twitter over the weekend.
The standard for Notre Dame is pretty simple, if they want to be a playoff team they need to be undefeated, because of the lack of the conference title game. They are undefeated, so the standard is met.
IS it possible for UCF to get in - lets say
Bama, Clemson, OSU and Oka all lose this weekend
the final four could look like this
1Bama,
2ND,
3Georgia
4UCF
If Bama loses this weekend they would not be #1 even with the other losses.
(no message)
Okay, that's if you believe in the Committee.
Do you think if Georgia plays within a few points of Bama, do they get left out of the combination and the committee goes with OSU or, if Bama loses do you leave out Bama?
I just don't think if Georgia wins SEC champ the committee leaves Bama out of the playoffs. ND Clemson and Bama are a lock as far as I can tell. If Bama wins SEC and all others win their champ games, I see OSU as the number 4.
YES.....FOR SURE
(no message)
Not sure those percentages matter.
I think the committee is sinister enough to move ND to #4 (because they have no "13th data point") and to move either OSU or Oka (should they win their conference championships) to #3. I think OSU is will be the eventual #3 team because of their defense vs Michigan keeping Oka at #5.
The committee will do just about anything to give Alabama an easier path to the championship (this all if Bama wins their conference vs Georgia.)
GO IRISH - beat everyone.
They gave up 39 points to Michigan. That said it will be 1 Alabama, 2 Clemson 3 ND 4 OSU or
if Georgia wins it will be 1 Clemson 2 ND 3 Georgia 4 Alabama.
But OSU’s D is trending right: the 39 to UM was way less than the 51 they gave up to MD.
(no message)
Yeah, the whole guessing thing is sort of inane, but fun. I really have no belief the committee
in doing the right or fair thing - though it's nearly impossible to do if all lose their championship games.
I see that OSU did appear much faster and better than Michigan but they did got crushed by UP and almost lost to UMaryland. It just appears they have a better D.
In any case, Oka doesn't appear to have much of a D.
In the end, I don't see ND being left out of the mix.
Bama and Clemson will likely win, and Georgia (if game is very close) will be the fourth in the mix. But that really will force the committee and ND to play Alabama as ND will be seeded #4 behind Clemson, and Georgia.
Moving to 4 could happen. Complete shut out, nope.
(no message)
Not shut out. I think they do move ND to #4 if Bama and OSU win.
If Georgia beats Alabama, It's possible and even likely it goes Clemson, ND, Bama, Georgia.
Should Clemson lose to Pitt (doubt it) and Georgia beats Bama (in close game)- it could look like this - Bama, Georgia, OSU, ND
Just sayin' - the selection committee is that way.
If Georgia beats Alabama there is no way Alabama is ranked ahead of Georgia. So you
would have to switch 3 and 4.
If Bama and Clemson win, the only question is who gets the #4 spot behind ND.
Probably OSU, if they beat NW. OU next in line, if they beat UT. UCF next up.
This is the likely scenario.
(no message)
Yep.
(no message)
Possible.
(no message)
.
(no message)
I'm in the paranoid column when it comes to the selection committee. heh
(no message)
Yes. OK will not go over ND. I will give you 2-1 odds against the Irish if you want the bet.
I will give you even odds that we stay at three if OSU goes.
Towards the end of the USC game...Herbie said that ND was a lock to get in.
And watching the ESPN college-football recap shows after Saturday's games...they think ND is a lock to get in.
I still think if Alabama loses to Georgia...and OSU, Clemson, and Oklahoma win their conference championships that ND is in trouble.
2 SEC teams (Alabama, Georgia), Clemson (which for some reason seems like a lock) and ND in the playoff...with 3 conferences not participating seems like it would be a problem.
But that's what the idiot conference people signed up for with this 4-team playoff.
I can't imagine an undefeated ND being left out of the playoff...but stranger things have happened.
Take Xanax with a Wild Turkey back you will be fine and just wait for Santa to come
(no message)
Will it also numb special teams anxiety?
(no message)
You didn't take my bait, two blocked punts for TD's. Sure now I hear from you, more practice!!!
(no message)
ND up to #58 in ST efficiency.
Bama 92, Clemson 88.
Fine my friend but you know if there is a ST play that decides Clemson or Bama, you're fucked
(no message)
The deciding play is still far more likely to come on offense or defense.
(no message)
It’s simple, really. ND should put 100% of time, focus, and resources on . . .
special teams. And 100% on offense. And 100% on defense. If ND wants to be the best, ND must be willing to give 300%.
We will see, but a blocked punt with an ND score, well?
(no message)
A slightly better block springs Dexter?
Julian Love jumps a route for a pick 6?
Haha OK
(no message)
In fivethirtyeight’s model, Hillary is president.
(no message)
Wow!
(no message)
Remember that OK and tOSU’s ADs recuse themselves on votes related to their teams
(no message)
And OSU AD, Gene Smith, is a former Irish starting WR
(no message)
They still get to vote against ND and it's naive to think they have no influence.
(no message)
ND is in 99%
(no message)
Per your model?
(no message)
No ESPN
(no message)
FWIW, ESPN has ND at >99%.
But only 10% to win it all...
Link: ESPN's College Football Playoff Predictor
Michigan with higher odds than UCF?
(no message)
I would rank both at zero.
(no message)
UCF has a path, Michigan does not.
(no message)
What is their realistic path?
(no message)
OU and OSU lose next weekend.
(no message)
Still zero chance.
Wazzou would go.
Those look about right.
(no message)