Sagarin has ND at #7 right now behind Michigan at #5. His model is indeed broken.
No worries man, as many opinions as we sling around here we all get our turns in the wrong seat sometimes...much respect.
We should put our heads together and come up with a better ranking...
Always has been. It has no credibility whatsoever. I have been saying this for 30 years. Ever since he had Miami ahead of ND at the end of the '88 season. ND had a tougher schedule, better record, and beat Miami head to head and he still had Miami ahead of ND.
Recent years less so. Forget that I am an ND fan, there is no scenario where UM can be ranked ahead of the Irish. His model has had many of those situations that just don't make sense.
He also had FSU ahead of ND the week after the '93 FSU game. He claims margin of victory is not a factor but I think he somehow rewards teams that run up the score.
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Which don't always tell the story. Our narrow wins against far lesser teams such as Ball State and Vandy play a major role, while Michigan's many blowouts helped them. So by the pure math, Sagarin's ratings are correct.
What they don't reflect is how the coaches coach the games. When Kelly gets a lead, especially against a poor team, he tends to take the air out of the ball at times instead of running up the score. He prefers to milk the clock and let the defense win the game, whereas other teams might try to keep their foot on the gas pedal.
If Sagarin had some sort of equal points bonus for winning a game, say 20 extra for every win regardless of opponent, it might better reflect how teams are ranked. So for example, Ohio State would have beaten Michigan 82-39 under this system, and Michigan would have been credited with a 43-point loss instead of 23.
You can feel the reluctance of the ranking even though it is a computer format being used.
Crazy, isn't it?
...and always thought in the past that his model was pretty good.
But if you look at the 'recent' rankings in his model...it has ND at 3
And I would think the 'recent' rankings would be the ones that matter most at this point.
He's essentially saying that ND would be a 4 point underdog to Michigan on a neutral site today. Where it's obviously broken is it has Michigan as a slight favorite over OSU.