This is my opinion and I welcome disagreement! Sorry this might be long but hope to stir some conversation.
I believe CF has settled into a pattern that might hold for the next several years. There is a clear stratification of teams that I think holds fairly steady for the near future.
Alabama-Clemson are clearly in a class alone. With their current rosters and coaching staffs (and barring catastrophic injuries/cheating scandals) I find it hard to believe they relinquish this dominance any time soon. They may be pushed in the regular season and possibly even drop the occasional game but they are playoff fixtures for several more years. It will take a monumental effort by a special team to defeat them in the playoff. I think they are something like 107-3 over the last 4 years not counting games vs each other.
Georgia-Oklahoma-Ohio State are a step below. They have proven over the last few years they belong up here but are still a level below Alabama-Clemson. These teams have the best shot at dethroning/replacing A-C. Looks like Oklahoma isn't going anywhere for a while and if they ever figure out defense they take big step up. Ohio State is still Urban's team next year (his players) so I don't see much of a drop off. Long term I am not sure the new coach can sustain Urban's level of winning. Georgia is loaded and will continue to stay here and is the most likely team to move up. Their recruiting has been ridiculous and Kirby is the one Saban assistant who seems to have taken what he learned and applied it where he is.
Then there are 6 teams - including the Irish - who are somewhat on the same level. They are very good teams but not a real threat to A-C. This group can beat up on each other from season to season, maybe push A or C a bit. The next dominant program will come from this group. Specifically:
ND - have to upgrade speed and get an elite QB (should have broke any and every rule to land the Fields kid! from UGA!)
Florida - not totally sold on them but they are trending upward, Mullins a very good coach
Michigan - yeah I know but at some point Harbaugh steps up? Just not next year when the Irish b-slap them again in the Little House.
Texas - again, not sold on them but they seem to have the right coach, conference and limitless resources
Texas A&M - based purely on Jimbo and the crazy amount of resources (and willingness to cheat) that they have
LSU - The more of Ed O I see the more I love him. If they ever get a real QB. And they did everyone a favor by thumping UCF.
Then there is everyone else. Stanford, Penn State, Wisconsin, Auburn, Oregon, Washington the top of this group but this is the area that has the most instability and will see the occasional surprise team emerge. Includes traditional powers like Fla St, Miami, USC, Nebraska - how long will they stay down? Boring teams like Iowa, Mississippi State, Michigan St in here usually as well.
Thoughts?
hard to argue your logic
What does that say about our SOS going forward?
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Wouldn't exactly bet the house on Michigan next year
are back to recruiting top classes again and competing with UGA . Then on top of all that talent you will have LSU & Auburn. We are not there.
Oklahoma doesn't belong with Georgia and Ohio State. Conversly, although they had an off year, USC belongs in the same category as ND imho.
That’s a good point. Not as big a gap to me between OSU-UGA-OU and Irish group as there is between top 2 and the rest.
As for OU, they have been in playoff more than anyone not called Bama or Clemson so that’s why I think they belong there. Could be a product of their league but they have been consistently in the top 4.
Not sure exactly where Southern Cal is right now and I don't think they do either. Their nepotism at AD is hurting them. I hope they keep it up.