Brian Kelly says that ND football has two goals:
1. Graduate its players
2. Win national championships
If he really means that, Phil Jurkovec (PJ) should be his choice at QB. He can learn from a number of recent examples.
First, there is the difference between a " playoff " QB and a " national championship " QB.
Alabama knew that Jalen Hurts was a playoff QB, but they switched to Tua, who was a national championship QB, and that's what they got.
Clemson knew that Kelly Bryant was a playoff QB, but they switched to Trevor Lawrence to be their national championship QB.
Georgia knew that Jake Fromm was a playoff QB, but they did NOT switch to Justin Fields, who might have been their national championship QB.
If anything can be learned from the Clemson loss, it's that Book is a playoff QB, not a national championship QB. He didn't have the poise or arm to get the job done. Lesson learned?
PJ has the ability to be a national championship QB. He has the composure, size and arm to be elite. When PJ committed to play for ND, he had to call the other coaches to tell them of his decision. He said that the hardest coach to tell was Urban Meyer at OSU. Meyer knew what a gem PJ was and he didn't want to lose him.
There is no more time to waste. The whole 2019 season hinges on the Georgia game in Athens. If we don't win that, we can forget about the playoffs, because no one loss ND team will be accepted. The deck is stacked against us. We won't win that game without PJ.
In addition to PJ, Kelly has to get speed at wide receiver. Lenzy could be our new Will Fuller, and there are others that have to get on the field. Also, Armstrong could be a Christian McCaffrey type dual threat weapon. PJ needs all the weapons that he can get.
Let's make a real, true run at a national championship!
The opportunity was THERE... 100% there for PJs taking last year. Hmmmmm, my guess is he wasn't good enough. Reassess your logic. But, really you are just trolling.
Take one of the top 5 HS QBs and don't play him for 2 years. Even though he already knows your offense.
Brilliant.
weren't that good in live game action. Who knows. It surely is confusing though. Book at least statistically proved he belonged in actual college football action.
no results. Book is good enough to win a national championship if he has enough talent around him but our talent is not Alabama or Clemson or Georgia or Ohio State talent. And maybe not Oklahoma talent too. So it would take the best performances from all our players to beat those more talented teams. We are a contender.
Probably both QBs will play this year due to an injury.
Long season.
I’m saying there is no basis to believe he should be #1 now. I don’t write him off because he didn’t go to #1 during the ‘18 season. Not all star QBs advance as quickly as Lawrence. And unlike Lawrence (and Tua), Jurkovec was not an early enrollee, which makes a big difference. Book played well and earned the job. If Jurkovec excels and passes Book, fine. But right now it is just speculation that he is better. And it is absurd to argue that Kelly will stick with a QB “no matter what.”
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If PJ " excels and passes Book, fine." We are on the same page on that. I just don't trust Kelly to give PJ a legitimate shot at competing for the starting job this Spring. It's much easier to stick with the incumbent.
QB. But, he's generally ignored the proof, that the QB he wishes was the best, couldn't win ballgames (or enough ballgames). And he sticks with them until almost his death.
See: Golson, Kiser, Wimbush --- All great talents, but couldn't execute what the QB position requires to get enough W's on the board to put the team in the post season and keep the coach hired.
We don't know anything about Jurkovec. And until he plays in some real games, we won't. If we go with his rep, he has more upside than Book. But so did Wimbush.
Book, as the incumbent with proven successful starts, should/will be the starter out of the box. That is the way it would be with most teams. But saying Book won that job by "beating out" Wimbush is disingenuous. He was the next guy on a very shallow depth chart when Wimbush couldn't master the mental aspects of running the offense much less the physical aspects of being a competent short range passer. More than anything else, that's the way Kelly rolls. His history will qbs is a clear indicator of that. He makes decisions(especially at qb) that are forced on him and Jurkovec isn't going to start, no matter what he does in practice, unless Book forces Kelly to make a change.
I just don't think Book will get much better. What you have seen is what you will see. He is a game manager, and he is good at that. He has some talents but throwing deep isn't one of them. And that is a problem in this offense.
We won't know anything until Georgia which will be a true bellwether of the rest of the season. For Jurkovec enthusiasts, the good news is that if Book is as good as his enthusiasts think he is, Jurkovec ought to get plenty of playing time in the first 2 games.
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That should have been your take from the start. Would have led to less resistance. You instead declared that Jurkovec should be #1 going into spring. Which is different from what you and I just agreed on. Regarding Kelly giving Jurkovec a fair shot . . . I guess you can think what you want. I think it is a tough position to defend when Kelly replaced his highly touted recruit with a high ceiling last season after a few games. You are right, though, that it is easier to stick with the incumbent. Kelly still made the switch, while undefeated and just a few weeks after beating Michigan. I think it would be easier for Kelly to switch to Jurkovec, a highly touted recruit with a high ceiling this coming year.
If Kelly had recruited Trevor Lawrence instead of PJ, Lawrence would have run the scout team just like PJ did. Kelly believes in seniority not meritocracy. PJ never had a chance. No QB under Kelly has emerged successful. He's a QB killer. Let's hope that PJ can succeed, inspite of Kelly, not because of him.
Kelly's job depends on winning. If there is a QB who can better help BK keep his job, he'd play him.
Jurkovec could be awesome, but we really don't know at this point. Book should start the spring as the starter for a lot of reasons
-Book played well enough to get us into the playoff last year
-Book was a first time starter last year and most QB's show their most improvement from first year starting to their second year starting
-Terrible precedent to replace a successful player with an completely inexperienced player without at least a competition when you have the opportunity to have a competition
-What Jurkovec brings to the table in terms of composure and going through progressions is conjecture at this point, it isn't high school anymore
-With all of spring practices, individual work and then fall camp, Jurkovec has plenty of time to beat out Book if he's really ready
-With limited QBs on the roster, there are plenty of reps to go around in Spring to give Jurkovec the chance to win the job if he's given a real chance
I'm not disagreeing with you about Jurkovec having a higher ceiling, but he's very inexperienced at the college level and there is time enough for him to win the job before the season begins if he's really better. In the long run, he will probably be better, but that might not be this year. Assuming he's going to come in and be at a level of Lawrence or Tua is a big leap of faith. Despite Kelly's track record, last year he did show he was willing to make the change when he thought Book provided us with a better chance to win. I think that if Jurkovec is given a real chance then we are in good shape. If he wins the competition, then he should start, if not, then Book stays the starter and, hopefully shows improvement. The key for me is that Jurkovec has to get enough quality reps for him to have the opportunity to win the job.
would be a mid–late first-round draft pick in the 2001 NFL Draft, but he slipped due to concerns about his relatively short stature for a professional quarterback (6'), a perceived lack of arm strength, and a sense that he had succeeded in college in a spread offense. Book was the second quarterback, behind Michael Vick of Virginia Tech, selected in the 2001 Draft, chosen by the San Diego Chargers as the first pick of the second round and 32nd overall."
Brady. Peyton Manning looked like crap in one Super Bowl before winning in the next. John Elway was completely outplayed by Phil Simms and finally got over the top when he beat Brett Favre.
Also what makes you think that Phil Jurkovec is better than Ian Book and gives us a better chance to win the national championship?
Any thinking person realizes that Book has a low ceiling. His limited downfield passing ability is always going to be a governor on the offense. The good news is that we don't have to worry about deep speed at WR because Book couldn't get it to him even if he was open by 5 yards.
Nobody knows what Jurkovec's abilities are but I'm pretty sure Kelly isn't going to find out until it is took late.
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And wouldn't for 5 of the next 10 either.
I think you need to watch more college football and step away from the Book altar you have in your basement.
We were lucky in 2018 re: the traditional power teams were down in 2018. We certainly would have lost to Michigan if we played them later in the year. Syracuse lost is fine qb in the 1st quarter. Florida state and USC were certainly much below their norm. Unless Book is a whole lot better in 2019 than he was in 2018, we're looking at 3 losses without blinking.
You sound like me.
ND improved a lot on offense as the season went on. Michigan lost its final two games of the season by a combined 49 points. Otherwise, I agree with you that the schedule broke well for ND last year. FSU and USC were definitely down. Stanford was down. Syracuse lost their QB early. I also agree that Book needs to improve, especially his deep throwing, for ND to take the next step forward.
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like you always chasing rainbows. It's Books job until he loses it. If he does so be it, but you have no evidence
that PJ would be an up grade, none
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conjecture. He may be the next coming, or the next disapointment.
IB earned his right to start. He will be the starter until someone beats him out. That's the way it should be
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What would any of us know about the composure, accuracy or smarts of Jurkovec? Have we watched him in practice? Has he shown it in a game? If he demonstrates that he can move the team better than Book, he will get the starts.
I hope you're right, and that Jurkovec turns out to be the next Trevor Lawrence, or at least Dwayne Haskins, and that the coaches recognize it early.
This is proving the old saying that the fans' most popular player is the quarterback on the bench.
The HS offense Jurko ran is 75% of the ND offense. He doesn't need another year to "learn the system".
He needs a fair shot to win the job. Doubtful Kelly will give it to him.
If Kelly had recruited Trevor Lawrence, instead of PJ, he would have had him run the scout team just like PJ did. It's called seniority.
Jurkovec wasn't. Even with Lawrence being so good and coming in early, he didn't win the starting job until after part of the season was played. And just because Lawrence made it big early doesn't mean Jurkovec will too. For every Lawrence there are a few Dayne Crists. I hope Jurkovec is great. I'll cheer him on if he wins the starters job. But right now, I have no basis for saying he's better than Book.
...but coaching genius would not be one of those things.
Not saying that is the case with PJ, by the way.
Book's body of work is good...but it's not so lengthy and/or impressive that it puts him above being challenged...
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Why would we think he wouldn't make a change if he thought Jurkovec would do better?
Even when it was so obvious that Wimbush wasn't the answer, Kelly had to be dragged kicking and screaming into putting Book in. There would be no way that he would do that twice in one year.
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Why was Kelly giving Wimbush every opportunity to keep the job? For the very reasons you are raising here in favor of Jurkovec. Wimbush had a "higher ceiling." Wimbush had more athletic ability and a stronger arm. It was a best case scenario for Wimbush to click with the offense. Wimbush didn't progress, so he turned it over to Book. Which shows that he'll move onto another QB if that's what is best for the team. It's kind of funny that you now say it was "obvious" that Wimbush should be benched in favor of Book,, but argue that Jurkovec should be the guy based on his "ceiling" and recruiting status. Wimbush was a higher rated QB on 247 than Jurkovec. Yet you somehow know that Jurkovec is a "NC quarterback" because you've watched his HS highlights. It's a joke.
anointed Wimbush with no game experience. Unfortunately, Wimbush was in over his head from Day 1 as the starter. That's just college football. It happens to guys.
We don't have time to wait for Book to struggle and then replace him with PJ. We are in a single elimination tournament, one and done, to get into the playoffs. If Book loses to Georgia, it's over. Thirty-one years without a national championship. We have to hit the ground running, all guns blazing, when we open up with Louisville. We have to run the table to get into the playoffs. PJ gives us the best chance to do that. Bazookas not popguns!
And that is a huge assumption. I also note that Clemson waited on Lawrence for several games in '18. 'Bama waited a whole season on Tua in '17. If Jurkovec wins the job going into '19 . . . fine. Or if he wins it during the season. Fine. But declaring him #1 going into spring because you've decided he's "a NC quarterback" based on nothing he's shown at the college level is just the usual armchair coach drivel: The starting QB played poorly in his last game, so the backup must be the answer!
If Kelly gave PJ an honest to God chance to win the job this Spring, I would be jubilant; however, I have no faith in Kelly to do that. I think that he will stick with Book, no matter what.
Why would I say that?
I will give you an example: Ever since Wimbush crapped out against Miami in 2017, the arrow was pointing down. He flopped again in the bowl game against LSU, and Book bailed us out. In the 2018 Pre-season camp, reports were that Book was outplaying Wimbush, but Kelly wouldn't budge, and he stuck with Wimbush. After three games into the season, he replaced him with Book. Book should have started and played the whole season.
It's not about seniority, it's about talent. I don't think that Kelly will give PJ a fair shake. That's a real shame.
other QBs. The chains move. That's how you win football games. Who know's with PJ. Why worry, because the chains haven't started stalling yet. We got beat by Clemson who murdered Alabama. Is that so bad? The gap as a team is still large between us and these two schools. An amazing QB won't close that gap enough to get a W.
Your pretzel logic is amazing. Kelly replaced the starter last season, while he was undefeated, and that somehow tells you that he'll stick with his starter this year "no matter what." And, it is "obvious" that he should have more quickly replaced the stud recruit, "high ceiling" starter with the QB you now say simply isn't a QB ND could possibly win a NC with. But wait, there's more: Kelly should replace the current starting QB who obviously should have gotten the starters job sooner with the completely unproven QB who you know is better because . . . wait for it . . . he's a stud recruit with a high ceiling! I almost believe you are just pranking the board at this point.
Kelly showed last season that he'll change QBs if necessary. The reason he gave Wimbush every opportunity to keep the job into the season is completely in line with your bottom-line thinking on this: Wimbush had the higher ceiling and, if he could master the offense, gave ND the best chance to maximize potential. Didn't work out. Which kind of proves that "high ceiling" isn't everything. Maybe Jurkovec, unlike Wimbush, lives up to billing. Maybe he's ND's Tua. Or maybe he's the next Wimbush . . . or Crist. All you are doing at this point is just classic arm-chair coaching nonsense. The backup must be better! The top recruit must be better!
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If Phil Jurkovec is truly the better quarterback right now, then he should be able to step up and take the starting job. There's absolutely no doubt he's a superior athlete, has significantly more arm strength, and can probably run faster. However, those three traits by themselves aren't the main determinant as to whether or not a quarterback is an ideal fit for Brian Kelly's pro-style / spread hybrid offense.
There are two questions, though, in terms of whether or not he's ready right now.
1) Is his accuracy good enough?
2) Can he make the quick correct reads from WR1 through WR4 and throw with good timing?
If the answer is "good enough" for both categories, then he should be able to claim that starting position. However, with those still being question marks, it only makes sense that Ian Book is the bona fide #1 QB at this time.
Book has demonstrated that his accuracy is excellent, his timing is excellent, he can make quick, correct reads for all four (or five) receivers, and that his arm strength is adequate enough to get the job done. That, plus he's mobile enough.
I would estimate that 90% of the playbook is available with Ian Book at the helm. The only question marks in his case would be the long range, downfield passes, since his long range arm strength is questionable (as of the end of 2018).
On the other hand, if you put Phil Jurkovec at the helm without knowing what you have, you're taking a huge risk. If he doesn't have the above two categories (accuracy, reads / timing), then we're back to having maybe 50-60% of the playbook available, like we did in 2017, and the beginning of 2018. If he does have the above two categories, then the whole playbook is definitely available. That's a lot of "if's" though, and it's up to Jurkovec himself, to show his stuff.
When you watch PJ's high school tapes, you will see a very accurate passer, who goes through his progressions, who can throw deep, and was a home run threat as a runner. It's a much higher level now, but he checks all the boxes. By now, he should have a good knowledge of the offense and his other skills remain intact.
What separates PJ so drastically from Book is his ability to throw the deep ball accurately. This is exactly how Clemson beat us: three long TD passes from an elite, freshman QB, two of which were caught by an elite freshman WR. Clemson does not hesitate to use freshmen if they are the best players. Kelly does. He's afraid. He wants to play it safe, be reactive rather than proactive. During the preparations for the Clemson game, Kelly said that he was looking to get more speed in the game at WR. Wow! Would Lenzy and the other freshmen burners get their chance? Of course not, Kelly chickened out.
Guts, meritocracy, and PJ are needed.
QB he has gotten us to the playoffs---him plus a stellar D. Frankly, who's to say he won't be a NC QB? On the other hand, we basically don't know shit about PJ other than what the various rags and talking heads say about his talent and ratings. You list a couple QBs who have proven to be NC-caliber QBs yet you say PJ has "the ability" to be a NC QB. How the hell do any of us know this? IB got us to the playoffs in his first year as starter and you wanna anoint a talented but unproven QB as starter? You need an MRI.
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One thing I know for sure is that if Jurkovec eventually wins the job this year, next year fans will be calling for either Brendan Clark or Drew Pyne.
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It's just something I've come to expect. If the starter falters in any way, some fans are just going to "know" that the backup is better. If Jurkovec wins the job, . . great. I'll cheer him on. But right now I have no reason to think he's better than Book. And I know that Book played well in his first turn as starter. If it just came down to recruiting profiles and measurables, Wimbush would still be the starter. It doesn't work that way.
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relatively weak defenses and better QB play is needed for ND to compete with the sport's elite, i.e., Clemson and Bama..To be brutally frank, Book was godawful against Clemson, missing open receivers, and displaying happy feet I never saw out of him before..Im not advocating dumping Book, but as Phil J reportedly has the bigger arm, and greater upside, Id sure have open competition..Book would have a leg up with his experience and anticipated growth, but make him win that job..
But the playoffs are his ceiling. Don't we want more?