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Just a guess, but I feel pretty confident about it:
2002 - Different quarterback (Jared Clark would have been the choice), 11 win season. We still would have been exposed by a much superior USC team, but that BC disaster where everything that could have gone wrong, did go wrong, wouldn't have happened.
2003 - Some dropoff, due to the exodus of the defensive talent, and I doubt the Michigan, Florida State, or USC games change from being losses. They would have been closer losses, though. I suspect an 8 or 9 win season would have certainly been within the reach, especially with Julius Jones in the stable of running backs.
After that, it's pretty much up in the air, but I suspect that a consistently good string of seasons would have been the norm. I can say for sure, that the 2007 season would have been much, much better, since there wouldn't have been any recruiting laziness on O'Leary's part, and that he wouldn't have been afraid to go after the top tier talent.
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Some things are beyond the range of rational thought.
Link: What if Rockne had signed that contract with Southern Cal?
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