So over the next few weeks before the conference title games the following top ten teams will filter out.
SEC
At this point I see Bama and LSU among one of the survivors, maybe both while Fl, UGA, and Auburn fall out.
Big Ten
tOSU, Wisconsin are among the survivors with Penn State, and Michigan dropping out. Probably tOSU makes it through.
Big 12
Think Oklahoma has a clear path to the top four.
ACC
Clemson has a clear shot to the final four.
So the way I see it is
All likely in are Clemson, tOSU, and Oklahoma, leaving one spot open, the winner of LSU and Bama. And unfortunately unlike last year ND resume is not good so if one of the big five conference leaders lose I think the loser between Bama and LSU makes it in over the PAC 12 winner or ND.
I hope Clemson falls on its face giving ND some chance to make it.
Nor will they, until 11/7/20.
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Only once in the CFP era have there been 3 unbeaten teams in the CFP, that being last year. There has never been 4 undefeated teams. In fact, in 4 of the 5 years, there has been at least 3 one loss teams (and one year all 4), and only once has the Champion been undefeated. Only once has the Committee taken two teams from one conference.
There is no reason to think the Committee or History will be any different this year. ND is in perfect position. They are the highest rated 1 loss team. If they win out, they will get in. This weekend was the first of many Top teams playing each other - and upsets to come. If you think South Carolina/Georgia is the only big upset this year of a top ranked team - you haven't watched much college football.
bother with a national championship game. We'd need lots of help to get in. Personally, I'd be delighted with finding a way to end the streak of losses in major bowls.
there are a lot of games to be played and a lot of upset possibilities.
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At least you're being realistic.
We're going to need some divine help in order to make it to the playoffs, and that's going to require that one of the above four take a bad fall during a choke game, while their opposition plays the perfect game.
If something were to happen, I would guess that Oklahoma loses to Texas in the Big 12 championship game.
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Quality aside, they’ve shutout 4 of 6 opponents. Their defense has scored as many TDs as they’ve allowed (4).
SEC not quite as top-heavy as the past 5 years. I expect UGA to bounce back from Fromme’s worst game, LSU is rolling, and UF/Auburn have plenty to say.
ACC is a one-trick pony, but Clemson has demonstrated they can slip up. A loss likely takes away control of their own destiny.
Pac-12 needs a miracle.
History shows that there are likely still a dozen teams with a decent shot to make it, including ND. Just need a couple breaks our way.
Saying three teams are “likely” this early. Injuries could throw that for a loop, and even if each team is individually likely to make it, the likelihood your entire prediction comes true is low in my opinion.
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