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Link: Notre Dame - Michigan Line Surging Towards Irish Has Me Worried
I donated some money in my time because the line movement was "fishy".
Vegas uses so much statistical data to set the lines and they remain disciplined to their approach. Reality, they are way wrong more often than they are way right, but they don't care. As long as they collect enough juice.
For every time you say, man they were a 3 point favorite and they won by 3, there are 5 other games where the spread wasn't within 6 points.
What Vegas is amazing at, throughout the years, about 50% of the underdogs cover and about 50% the favorites cover.
Moral of the story, it's still a weird game, with weird rules , where about 50 kids have major responsibilities during a game that uses a funny shaped ball that bounces all sorts of ways.
Like USC, Um has “dudes” just as we do. But we are a lot faster.