A very realistic view.
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There are 11 realistically alive for the playoffs right now. Obviously the Irish need to win out - but so do most other teams
Alabama, LSU, Clemson, OSU, OU, PSU, FU, ND, Auburn, UGA, Ore....If there are no upsets the rest of the way (which is close to a mathematical impossibility).
Knockout games - Auburn will lose to LSU (today); FU will lose to UGA or Ala in title game, LSU will lose to Ala but stay ahead of ND, PSU will lose to OSU last week of season, and UGA will lose to Ala in the SEC Championship.....making the final Rankings
Ala, (28%) Clemson (61%), OSU (37%), OU (28%), LSU (12%), ND (31%), Ore (25%).....and???? Odds of winning out in parenthesis
How could you say, with all the games left - that there is no chance of 2 upsets in the top 5 ahead of ND. Ala still has Auburn and is playing a back up Freshman QB, Clemson has Wake and South Carolina, LSU gets Ala and 4 other SEC teams, OSU has Michigan, and OU has Iowa st, Baylor and Texas.
I'm not seeing the "long shot" everyone else is. This would be one of the only years ever in college football that no one in the top 5 had a crazy upset down the stretch and some of these games left - wouldn't be called a "crazy" upset.
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Florida I presume.